Thursday, November 21, 2013

Did Devon Pay As Much As $60,000/Acre In The Eagle Ford? If So, The Bakken Is Way, Way Undervalued

I posted this just a few minutes earlier: record paid for Eagle Ford shale -- Richard Zeits over at SeekingAlpha.
The per-acre valuation is a blended average for the higher-valued DeWitt County leases, which are located in the play's most productive sweet spot, and relatively lower valued Lavaca County acreage. Taking the value differences into account, the per-acre valuation attributable to the DeWitt County acreage exceeds $60,000 per undeveloped acre. The price is a new record in the play and is particularly high given that the acquired properties are mostly non-operated (BHP Billiton is the operator in DeWitt County).
Devon indicated that there are approximately 1,200 drilling locations remaining on the properties. This implies a price of ~$2.7-$3.2 million per remaining drilling location. Assuming that the properties will be fully developed in about five-six years, the acquisition price, including a 10% annual cost of carry on undeveloped acreage, translates into approximately $3.5-$4.0 million average add-on to the already high $9-$10 million total well cost. The acquisition burden is, obviously, quite significant and negates a significant portion of what otherwise should be very strong drilling returns.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or what you think you may have read here, but this story certainly reassures me that my recent investments in operators working in the various shale plays across the US was not ill-placed. Wow, $60,000/acre.

iBeacon

This is taking off a bit quicker than I would have guessed.

MacRumors is reporting:
Shopping app Shopkick has teamed up with Macy's to deliver the first retail-based iBeacons, allowing customers to find location-specific deals, discounts, and recommendations in the Shopkick app while in a participating Macy's store, located in Herald Square, New York and Union Square, San Francisco.

Apple's iBeacon microlocation APIs, first introduced at WWDC, are designed to access location data through the Bluetooth Low Energy profile on iOS devices, interacting with physical transmitters.
For more on iBeacon at an earlier post, click here.  

Near field communication (Android): 4 cm

iBeacon: 160 yards; scalable.

Annual EIA Report On Drilling Production, 2012 For Key US Regions

Don sent me this. An incredible link. I will link it on my "data links" pages.

When you get to the link, scroll down. Interestingly enough, "The Bakken" is listed first.

They Will Simply Go Without; For The Archives -- ObamaCare Will Ultimately Succeed

FoxNews is reporting:
While millions of Americans are watching their individual polices get canceled due to ObamaCare regulations, the new health care rules are also having a major impact on college campuses. For decades, universities and colleges have offered students bare-bones policies. 
But because of the Affordable Care Act, those policies no longer cut it – and universities are forced to decide whether to offer significantly higher-cost plans or cancel coverage altogether. The new rules affect a broad swath of American schools, especially the small ones. 
At Bowie State University in Maryland, the cost of student health insurance policies went from roughly $100 a year to $1,800 a year. 
The cancelled plan offered $5,000 worth of medical coverage to students for just $54 per semester. University administrators said an acceptable replacement under the Affordable Care Act would have cost $900 per semester, a 1,500 percent increase.
This is a challenging subject. I bought those "cheap" (as opposed to "inexpensive") college policies for my daughters when they were in college. I knew they were fairly worthless, did not cover much. I bought them for one purpose: when they showed up at the emergency room or clinic, they would not be turned away for lack of insurance. That "cheap" policy was their ticket to the waiting room. I knew I would have to figure out how to pay for their medical care, but at least they were getting it and not getting turned away. But the policies covered almost nothing; had high co-pays; and high deductibles.

They were a scam but we all bought into it. Some of us bought into it because we were ignorant; others bought into it so our students would at least have access. At a cost of $54/semester it was worth it.  But anyone who thought $54/semester way going to guarantee them comprehensive medical care would have been in for a colossal shock if they had actually needed it.

*******************************
For The Archives
For The Date-Time Stamp

An unedited note to a reader:
ObamaCare will fail in its present form, but one cannot put the genie back in the bottle. Obama will leave in disgrace, but he will be vindicated several years (maybe a decade) after he leaves office. It will take a few years (maybe a decade), but gradually his vision of ObamaCare will be in place.

ObamaCare will fail in its present form, but one cannot put the genie back in the bottle (repeating).

Consumers will love the benefits (as military members love Tricare benefits); providers (hospitals, clinics, and physicians) will love getting paid for everything (right now they write off about 20% of patients who cannot pay/don't have insurance) which ObamaCare will pay; and insurers would go broke (they're holding the bag) but they will be bailed out.

The "bail out" will be the way the US funds the American Health Service, exactly like British National Health Service, but the taxpayer money will be laundered/funneled through the insurance companies. Insurance companies will still be needed, because they will eventually be given permission to write "ultra-gold" policies for the elite and the super-rich.
The transition will be painful and extremely costly but there will be winners.

The only major thing that needs to be changed: the deductibles will be lowered, and it's possible they will be lowered based on income.

The biggest winners will be investors in large corporations. Starting next year, corporations will transition their health care costs to someone else. IBM, Time Warner, all the rest have already started. 

Good News For The Bakken: Gasoline, Diesel Supplies Fell Way More Than Expected Last Week

The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
Gasoline and diesel prices rose Wednesday after government data showed strong demand for the petroleum products for this time of year, while stockpiles fell more than expected last week.
The amount of crude distillates, such as diesel and heating oil, stored in the U.S. fell by 4.8 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 15, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal had predicted a decline of only 500,000 barrels. [These must be the same analysts that do the weekly unemployment claims projections.]
In the same week, implied demand for distillate fuel rose 14% from the previous week to 4.3 million barrels. It was a six-year high for that week in November. Refiners have been producing large amounts of diesel for export to Europe and Latin America, where it is more widely used.
"Demand for distillates was pretty high last week, and even though gasoline demand dipped below 9 million barrels a day, it's unseasonably high for this time of year," said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks and Opinions, a trading newsletter.
Gasoline use in the U.S. usually tapers in November as early-winter weather in some parts of the country keeps motorists off the road. Stockpiles of gasoline fell by 345,000 barrels last week, more than the 100,000-barrel decline analysts had expected.
This is a huge story. In the recent special issue of Bloomberg Businessweek there is a graphic of the amount of diesel being exported overseas. The graphic looks like the graph of Bakken oil production: straight up.