Now It's Russia That Won't Be Able To Keep Up -- Yes, The Bakken Is Mentioned

The Oil Drum has posted a series of posts today (Sunday, March 11, 2012) on the state of the oil patch worldwide.

It starts out with a short piece on Russia:

This series of posts has just completed a review of the different regions of Russian oil production, with the conclusion that while Russia may maintain current production levels of around 10.4 mbd for a short time, it faces rising domestic consumption levels because it is not replacing existing production at a fast enough rate to be able to sustain exports. Without more investment than is likely available, the rate of new field development (given the harsh and remote nature of the sites) means that there will be a slow decline in available oil to the market starting fairly soon. Given the large supplies of natural gas coming available, this series is going to focus a bit more on oil as we continue the review.

It's another great review, the kind expected at The Oil Drum.

My favorite couple of lines in that post:

In seeking to predict future production, the NEB [Canada National Energy Board] anticipated that the price of a barrel of oil would rise relatively modestly over the next 20 years. Even in their high estimate, they do not see the price rising to more than $160 a barrel by 2035 (who would bet that the estimate is exceeded this year or next?).

The "article" also questions Saudi's ability to step up to the plate, something I have blogged about often.

At the very end of the series of posts, there is a question/comment regarding the Bakken. 

More Evidence the Current Talk About Anthropogenic Global Warming is So Much Hot Air

... or proof that coal-powered Viking ships contributed to global warming in 1531

Link here to a most interesting article at Climate Realists.

The map was discovered in the Library of Congress, Washington DC, in 1960 by Charles Hapgood. It was drawn by well-known French cartographer, Oronteus Finaeus, in 1531. There is no serious question about the authenticity of the map. Finaeus was a well-known scholar and was an expert in cartography, astronomy, mathematics and military weaponry. The map is based on numerous source maps, some of them going back to the time of Alexander the Great (335 BC).

One section of the map pictures the globe from the perspective of the South Pole. Antarctica is clearly shown on this map and is pictured as being largely ice-free with flowing rivers and a clean coastline. Some of the mountain ranges pictured on the map have only been recently discovered. Photographs of the map can be found on numerous websites; one such photograph appears above.

The other half of the map, which is not shown, pictures the globe from the perspective of the North Pole. Continents and islands clearly pictured on the map above include Antarctica (center), South America (lower right), Africa (lower left), Madagascar (left of center) and Australia (upper left).

There are numerous sensational features of the map - one of them being the reality that it clearly pictures Antarctica long before it was "discovered" in 1820. Also significant is the fact that Antarctica is depicted as largely free of ice, at least in the coastal areas. This means that some of the source-maps were drawn before the mile-thick ice-cap covered the continent. This is not surprising because it is well-known that when the Vikings settled Greenland in 980 AD, it too was much warmer than today. The Vikings in Greenland numbered about 5,000 by 1200AD, but as the earth cooled, the settlers died off or moved away.

Regardless of your myth (what you believe about global warming), this is a fascinating article for many, many reasons. 

This is not the first time the Vikings have been blamed for global warming back in the 1500s due to their coal-powered ships. (I assume they had not figured out how to miniaturize nuclear reactors for their long voyages.) We do know they used cellular phones because no copper wirelines have been found in Norway or Iceland from that period.

For Investors Only: WSJ -- Investing in the Unconventional Oil Patch

Link here to a fairly superficial WSJ article.

...a new ETF, Market Vectors Unconventional Oil and Gas —with the fitting symbol of FRAK. It invests in a range of companies that use fracking drilling techniques and those with exposure to shale oil, shale gas and related areas. One of its largest holdings, EOG Resources, has shifted the bulk of its production to oil from natural gas and is benefiting as oil prices soar.

But also this:

... is steering clients to master limited partnerships like Kinder Morgan Energy Partners and Enterprise Products Partners. MLPs are companies that own and operate pipelines, primarily for natural gas and oil. They're partnerships and retain no earnings and pay no taxes; instead, they pay out all profits to partners ....

And,

... it may be too late to make a big plunge into shale and fracking investments. He notes that these companies are seeing more scrutiny, due to the potential for environmental damage.
He recommends investing in certain energy-intensive industries that will benefit from low, long-term natural-gas prices, such as chemical companies.

I'm a fan of master limited partnerships.

I am seeing more and more written about chemical companies taking advantage of low natural gas prices. I also think manufacturers with large energy needs will benefit from low natural gas prices. I assume some utilities using coal will get discounts from coal supplies with threat of moving to natural gas. Bottom line: manufacturers might report some nice numbers 2Q11 as their energy costs go down.

This is not an investment site. See disclaimer. I post investment stories affecting the Bakken for the interest of the reader. I won't be trading shares any time soon in any of the companies mentioned in this post.

The Price of Gasoline for The Average American Is Higher Than the Average Price of Gasoline

Link here to CarpeDiem.

A gallon of regular was only $3.33 in Colorado, for example, and in Wyoming it was $3.28, the lowest in the nation. Along the Gulf of Mexico, the price was a bit higher: $3.59 in Texas, $3.60 in Alabama and $3.62 in Louisiana.

For nastier numbers, turn to the Northeast and the West Coast: $3.99 in New York and Connecticut and a whopping $4.35 in California.

More folks live where gasoline is higher than the "national average."

For folks paying the national average ($3.79), their perception is they are paying $4.00/gallon.

For Californians, they are anticipating $5.00 gasoline for Memorial Day.

Grand Forks AFB Downsizing -- Eastern North Dakota -- Nothing To Do With the Bakken

Grand Forks AFB continues to downsize.

Privatizing the housing is not new; the Air Force has been doing this for years.

What is surprising to me is how small the base is getting in terms of personnel (compared to when I was assigned there, 1980 - 1983).

Data points:

• The base will demolish 286 existing housing units; units remaining: 547 single-family homes
• Since 2006, active duty has declined from 2,450 to 1,200
• Since 2006, civilian workforce has declined from 3,000 to 1,000

I can only assume the economic effect on Grand Forks has been significant, but gradual over time.

Grand Forks AFB is transitioning from a military tanker mission to an unmanned aircraft systems mission.