Sunday, March 11, 2012

Best Link of the Day -- The Volt -- Nothing To Do With the Bakken

The photo alone -- at the link -- is worth a look
The Volt is dying. What took it so long?
By the way, how long was the Edsel in production? 1958, 1959, and 1960 model years

Link here to ThomasNet.com. Dateline: March 9, 2012.
In August we noted that the Chevy Volt was dying. As we asked then, what took so long? The New York Times now reports that Government Motors will, for the third time since the car debuted in December 2010, pause production of the strikingly undemanded car for at least a month because “dealers had more than they needed.”​

The shutdown will lay off 1,300 workers at the Volt’s Detroit plant. Not even President Obama’s pledge to purchase a Volt when he leaves office could sway people possessed of common sense to buy one of the lemons.

GM officials were hoping to sell 45,000 Volts in the United States for the year during 2012, but that’s been abandoned as unrealistic – 1,023 Volts were sold in February, 603 in January. For comparison purposes, Toyota sold 154,000 Camrys in February. Seeing as how there are 3,600 unsold Volts on lots around the U.S., that means in less than one day Toyota moves more Camrys than the sum total of unsold Volt inventory.
Every unsold Volt saves the American taxpayer: $7,500.

A huge thank you to Don for sending this link. I definitely would have missed it.

I hate to pile on, but ... whatever ...

Link to Bloomberg:
Pity the Chevy Volt. Ever since it became known that the plug-in hybrid car’s batteries had burst into flames after government crash tests, the Volt has become the whipping boy of Republican politicians.
Conservatives have equated General Motors Co. (GM)’s Volt with everything from government bailouts to radical left-wing environmentalism. 
Don suggests a nice little sticker for those who leave the voting booth in November who vote for the incumbent: "I voted for the Dolt."

Again, because these posts always result in lots of nasty mail: I have nothing against coal-powered vehicles. I am against the government subsidizing to the tune of $10,000 or more for cars at twice-the-price for cars with half-the-value. And yes, it's well beyond $10,000/car: the GM bailout includes forward-carrying-losses so that GM does not pay any federal taxes for ten years, according to CNBC. Of course, Ford continues to pay federal taxes.

To complete the triad of stories Don sent me, old news, but just a reminder for those who might have missed, or like me, forgot: Chevy Volt voted European car of the year.

Another Great Story on the Bakken Impact

Link to the Rapid City Journal.
The 63-year-old hauls cement five or six times a week to Williston, N.D., the epicenter of the Bakken oil shale formation that is fueling record economic growth for that state.

Now the growth is spilling south over the state line, bringing a new and growing market for businesses in the Black Hills that provide raw materials for oil extraction, equipment repair, housing components, and other needed goods and services.

“You don’t have to study very hard to figure out that it’s a multi-billion dollar market, four hours from our back door,” said Duff Kruse, president of Adams-ISC, a Rapid City manufacturing company benefitting from the boom. Adams-ISC makes and repairs the type of pressure pipe and vessel systems used to transport oil and natural gas, as well as hydraulic systems on trucks.
As a reminder, a few months ago, it was being reported that $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion is being poured into the Bakken EACH MONTH. The Bakken comprises more than just western North Dakota -- it extends into Canada and Montana, there are hints that some non-Bakken payzones extend into South Dakota -- but for all intents and purposes, right now, "the Bakken" is centered in four counties in the north (Willams, Mountrail, McKenzie, and Dunn) and one county in the south (Stark). Of course, one can divide McKenzie and Dunn in half and place half of each of those two counties in the "north" and half in the "south."  Regardless how you split it up, upwards of $2 billion is being poured into only a portion of North Dakota. 

Are the numbers inflated? 200 rigs drilling a well/month at $10 million/well. 

Note for newbies: not all rigs are drilling oil wells; some are drilling salt water disposal wells. But the "200 x 10 million" does not include all the pipeline being laid for the oil, the fracking water, or the natural gas pipeline for gathering, nor the new facilities for processing natural gas. The numbers are simply staggering.

Great Story on Minnesota's Source of Fracking Sand for the Bakken, Elsewhere

Kent sent the link. Thank you.

This is a great update.
Today, that confluence of river, railroad and Texas entrepreneurial spirit has made Winona the epicenter of a new Midwestern gold rush: frac sand mining.

Nearly 50 mining operations have opened nearby in the past few years, producing enough sand to send 54,000 semitrailer trucks rumbling down Winona's main street in a year.

But as the boom spreads, from western Wisconsin to Mankato to Shakopee, it is igniting a debate over sand mining and the larger industry it serves -- the controversial oil and gas drilling practice called hydro-fracking.

Just last month, dozens of Winona residents took to the street near the heart of downtown, waving protest signs in front of a 50,000-ton pile of sand they derisively call Mount Frac. "Short-term profit, long-term problems,'' read one placard.

But many in the industry say sand mining is here to stay, as long as oil and gas companies continue to ramp up domestic production to address the nation's energy demands.

"When gas prices get to $7 per gallon, maybe they will say that fracking isn't so bad," said Smith, the head of Sierra Frac Sand, a small Texas player in the national industry.
Agree. And I think it will happen well before $7/gallon. My hunch is that at $5.00 folks are gonna start demanding some action. Windfall profits tax will be in the mix, but another tax won't drop the price.

At $6.00/gallon, ....

Hey, by the way, that "drill, drill, drill," and we can't drill our way out of this problem, I keep coming back to the story that we've drilled ourselves down to $2.50 natural gas when Asia is paying $16 for natural gas, and if I recall correctly, someone said Europe is paying as much as $14 for natural gas. And, of course, the French have banned fracking.

Oakdale Field Updated -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Data for Oakdale oil field has been updated. This field includes CLR's outstanding Carson Peak/Morris Eco-Pad.  One well has produced more than 200,000 bbls in the first seven months.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Apple's New iPad -- Pre-Orders Exceed Apple's Expectations

Updates

March 13, 2012: Already facing shortages, NYT.
The sell-out left Wall Street analysts guessing how many new iPads Apple sold since it became available for order on March 7, with Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray speculating that pre-orders exceeded one million and Ben A. Reitzes of Barclays Capital saying the figure was likely in the millions.

Apple frequently reveals first day or first weekend sale of new products, and sometimes pre-orders. In the case of the original iPad, Apple sold 300,000 during its first day on sale in April 2010. Apple sold its millionth iPad 28 days after the original went on sale.
March 12, 2012: AAPL trading at new all-time highs. 

Original Post
Shipments will be delayed slightly.
Earlier in the week, Apple had promised the newest tablet would arrive at customers' homes on the launch date.

Trudy Miller, an Apple spokeswoman, said the change was made because customer response to the new iPad had been "off the charts," quickly exhausting the supply set aside for pre-order and delivery by March 16.

Apple's new product releases are some of the hottest events on the tech calendar, scrutinized by investors, the media and industry insiders alike.

To the company's devoted fans, who vie to be the first to own the latest device, a three-day delay would be an eternity and could add to the crowds at the company's retail stores.
I can't wait to see the "Fast Money" folks talk about Apple "going forward."

Another article on this shortage here.  As a trader, I would hate to be short AAPL going into Monday. But, good luck to all.