Best Poll of the Day -- From the Minot Daily Press

Link here.

I assume the poll is a dynamic link.

The poll today:

Who was the better president?

• Jimmy Carter
• Barack Obama

Results right now: Earl, 77%; Hussein Obama, 23%.

North Dakota Oil Production This Year Will CRUSH Previous Record -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA -- Depsite One of the Worse Winters on Record

Link here to The Bismarck Tribune, the article begins:

North Dakota oil drillers are on pace to crush the state's crude production record despite a year fraught with worse-than-normal winter weather and record spring flooding that idled rigs and hampered access to the oil patch.

The state Industrial Commission said crude production through June totaled 64.6 million barrels. Based on current production estimates, the state should end 2011 with about 133 million barrels, up about 18 percent from the record set last year.

North Dakota produced 11.2 million barrels of crude in May and 11.5 million barrels in June, according to the latest Industrial Commission figures available.

Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council, called the production remarkable because the weather conditions this year have been among the worst in the state's 60-year oil history, stranding millions of barrels at well sites.

"So many roads were shut down we couldn't move crude," said Ness, whose group represents about 250 companies.

Nothing but "wow!"

Data points:

• NDIC: "we're still trying to catch up"
• June: another production record
• Every month from here on out should meet / exceed June's production
• June's production: 385,000 barrels/day -- just 15,000 short of another milestone
• Will soon hit 200 active drilling rigs (there were 193 today, another record)

Note:

North Dakota oil drillers are on pace to crush the state's crude production record despite a year fraught with worse-than-normal winter weather and record spring flooding that idled rigs and hampered access to the oil patch.

The state Industrial Commission said crude production through June totaled 64.6 million barrels. Based on current production estimates, the state should end 2011 with about 133 million barrels, up about 18 percent from the record set last year.

Despite all this:

Lynn Helms, director of the state Department of Mineral Resources, has said there were 822 idle wells in February, up from 760 in January. The number of idle rigs peaked in June at 900 because of soggy conditions and weight restrictions on roads that made many well sites inaccessible to trucks and other equipment needed to move the crude off site.

For newbies, when I speak of "rigs," I'm talking about those huge structures you see in the oil patch that are drilling for oil. In the paragraph above, I assume the writer is talking about "wells," where rigs once were. There are "only" 193 active rigs in North Dakota today, so I doubt the rigs in the paragraph above was referring to drilling rigs. But I may be misunderstanding something. It wouldn't be the first time. Someone will write in to correct me.

There are about 5,700 producing wells in North Dakota. I believe about 900 of them were shut-in, or otherwise inactive, due to weather-related issues as noted above.
For comparison:

North Dakota's oil patch pumping about 100,000 more barrels of crude daily than a year ago at this time and about double the production in 2008. State and industry officials estimate the state could hit 700,000 barrels daily by 2015.

Agency figures show Alaska production is pegged at about 550,000 barrels a day, followed by California at 540,000 barrels. Texas leads the nation with about 1,410 million barrels daily.

UK North Sea -- One Of The Best Areas for Oil Development -- Not Immune From Oil Taxes

Link here. 

The outlook of the UK upstream oil and gas industry remained fragile in this year’s second quarter, increasing modestly to 54 points from 51, according to Oil & Gas UK’s latest business confidence index.

“Across the operator community, confidence increased slightly from 46 to 48 points but this score still represents a negative outlook,” said Ken Cruickshank, OGUK’s supply chain manager.

OGUK’s index measures a number of economic indicators, including changes in business confidence, activity levels, business revenue, investment, and employment.

The index gauges overall industry confidence on a 100-point scale, with a higher rating (above 50) indicating a more positive outlook and a lower rating (below 50) representing a more negative viewpoint.

This is what oil companies are worried about: taxes.

“While it appears that some companies may feel reassured by the Treasury’s willingness to engage on ways to mitigate the negative impact of the tax increase on investment, the confidence of many independent operators in particular continued to decline in the second quarter,” Cruickshank said.

The North Dakota legislature needs to take note. 

Let's Make This Real Clear -- Re-Posting -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

On January 1, 2009, or thereabouts, it was predicted that the North Dakota Bakken play would yield 800,000 to 1 million barrels/day by 2018.

The production curve needed to reach that range is already steeper than predicted, which means that production is now forecast to exceed that range by 2018.

At that time, 1,151 Bakken wells in the Williston Basin has combined initial potential test rates of more than 1 million barrels/day.

That number, 1 million barrels/day by those 1,151 Bakken wells, exceeded -- exceeded --  the production from 17,800 vertical oil wells drilled in the US in the same period.

Since Jan. 1, 2009, 1,151 Bakken horizontal wells in the Williston basin had combined initial potential test rates of more than 1 million b/d, more than the collective initial test value from 17,800 vertical oil wells drilled in the US in the same period, said Pete Stark, vice-president of industry relations, IHS CERA, which sponsored the kickoff session.

IHS, Stark said, has estimated that the Bakken play will be yielding 800,000-1 million b/d by 2018, but the play is already ahead of the production curve needed to reach that range.

Staggering Numbers Coming Out of Houston Conference --

From the Summer NAPE exposition in Houston.

How staggering are the numbers coming out of the Williston Basin Bakken: 

Since Jan. 1, 2009, 1,151 Bakken horizontal wells in the Williston basin had combined initial potential test rates of more than 1 million b/d, more than the collective initial test value from 17,800 vertical oil wells drilled in the US in the same period, said Pete Stark, vice-president of industry relations, IHS CERA, which sponsored the kickoff session.

IHS, Stark said, has estimated that the Bakken play will be yielding 800,000-1 million b/d by 2018, but the play is already ahead of the production curve needed to reach that range.

Wow, I wish the Obama administration would attend some of these conferences (on the other hand, maybe not: the would see all the low-hanging fruit in need of more regulation, higher taxes, and delayed permits), but this is what the "oil and wet gas plays of all types" are doing:

• Revitalizing basins
• Reducing unemployment 
• Stressing demand for rigs and oil services
• Reversing production declines in the continental onshore

And it's not just the unconventional plays like the Bakken, but rather;

• Conventional and unconventional
• Vertical and horizontal
• Shales, carbonates
• Tight oil formations
• Multiple pay zones

And,

A number of plays besides the Bakken are "getting ready to take off" in the Williston basin, said Roger Pinkerton, Marathon Oil Corp. North American onshore director exploration, although he didn't specify. Marathon has important acreage positions in the Bakken, Niobrara, Anadarko Woodford, and Eagle Ford plays.

And when I started this blog -- actually re-started it -- two years ago, I said I was inappropriately exuberant.