Monthly Prices of North Dakota Sweet Since June, 2007 -- North Dakota, USA

There has been a lot of anxiety in the mainstream media regarding the price of oil. So, another look:

Below the introduction are prices for North Dakota Sweet.

These are the last prices shown for the month indicated for North Dakota Sweet provided by SemCrude. [Update: someone pointed out that there was a significant price discrepancy between SemCrude's and Murphy's prices for North Dakota Sweet. I have since added a quote from Murphy for the designated month.]

Note: back in early 2009, North Dakota Sweet dropped to $20/barrel. EOG has said "they are robust" when Bakken oil is $40/bbl. Back in the 2008 timeframe, North Dakota Sweet was at/over $85 for seven (7) months, spiking to $120 for two (2) months.

In comparison, in the current run-up in oil prices, North Dakota Sweet has been above $85 for only one (1) month. (Again, in a general sense, using only the last figure for the month indicated as provided by SemCrude.)

There were at least fourteen (14) months of gradual and steady increase in the price of oil before hitting the $120 peak. Then, the recession. Following that spike, and sudden reversal, the past 18 months or so have been fairly unremarkable. Even the run-up to $89 is not particularly remarkable when compared to the July, 2008, spike.

Month: SemCrude Price -- Murphy Oil Price (each month there are multiple figures; I simply picked the last figure presented by SemCrude and the first figure that popped up for Murphy Oil.

April, 2011: 89 -- 100
March, 2011: 84 -- 86
February, 2011: 66 -- 76
January, 2011: 67 -- 77

December, 2010: 67 -- 73
November, 2010: 66 -- 68
October, 2010: 60 -- 63
September, 2010: 53 -- 61
August, 2010: 60 -- 65
July, 2010: 53 -- 59
June, 2010: 51 -- 58
May, 2010: 54 -- 72
April, 2010: 65 -- 73
March, 2010: 61 -- 67
February, 2010: 51 -- 64
January, 2010: 62 -- 67

December, 2009: 54 -- 66
November, 2009: 57 -- 63
October, 2009: 49 -- 57
September, 2009: 47 -- 54
August, 2009: 45 -- 56
July, 2009: 42 -- 55
June, 2009: 48
May, 2009: 36
April, 2009: 29
March, 2009: 25
February, 2009: 19
January, 2009: 22


December, 2008: 20
November, 2008: 41
October, 2008: 70
September, 2008: 86
August, 2008: 100
July, 2008: 121
June, 2008: 118
May, 2008: 103
April, 2008: 89
March, 2008: 85
February, 2008: 68
January, 2008: 75


December, 2007: 68
November, 2007: 76
October, 2007: 61
September, 2007: 57
August, 2007: 52
July, 2007: 52
June, 2007: 47

Medicine Pole Hills Oil Field -- North Dakota, USA

Every so often CLR gets another permit for the Medicine Pole Hills oil field, in the far southwest corner of the state.

Right now, in that field, and in the entire southwest part of the state, there is a lone rig on site:

• 19717, ROS, CLR, Wallman 42-8H

In addition, CLR has two sites on confidential status in the immediate area:

• 19872, C, CLR, MPHU 43-9H
• 19716, C, CLR, Della 31-17SH

So, what's the history of this field. Here are some wells in the immediate area (file number, operator, date spudded, formation, and total oil to date:

• 5530, CLR, 2006, West Red River, 386K
• 14971, CLR, 2000, West Red River, 320K
• 5456, CLR, 1974, West Red River, 610K
• 13867, CLR, 1996/2010, West Red River, 105K
• 7675, CLR, 1980, West Red River, 167K
• 16064, CLR, 2010, West Red River, 11K

Again, anything over 100K is nice to see.

**********

Now let's look a little bit deeper:

13867: this CLR well has two spud dates (1996 and 2010. In 2010, CLR re-entered the well and put in a horizontal into the Red River "B" formation. The IP was 123, and the production was running 2,000 bbls/month; there is no mention of fracking). Here are the production numbers for this well:

• For the first few months after spudding, 1,000 bbls/month
• Then for several months, 800 bbls/month
• Before leveling off at 600 bbls/months for years (with one notable exception: 1,800 bbls 2/05)
• Then August, 2010: no production; that's when CLR was re-entering the well

Here are the production numbers since August 2010, after the new lateral was drilled:

• September, 2010: 2,225
• October, 2010: 3,712
  November, 2010: 3,281
• December, 2010: 2,524
• January, 2011: 3,281
• February, 2011: 3,712

Comment: for me, this is huge. First thing I noticed: CLR moved this well from 800 bbls/month to 3,000 bbls/month in 2010. Second thing I noticed: not the decline in production that we see in the Bakken.

********

5456 is a vertical well into the Red River, and spaced at 320 acres. It is still producing at about 800 bbls/month and seems fairly stable.

Is It Just Me?

With oil now heading calmly, and slowly above $110 (up $1.45 in the last couple of hours), is it just me or does it seem strange to others that the president seems to be absent without leave on this subject? Three bullets:

• President's energy security speech called for alternate energy with goal to cut imported oil by one-third over the next decade; a decade from now!
• Saudi Arabia sent emissaries to Russia and China to short up support following unrest in the Mideast, not to its longest ally, the US
• President devotes more than half-a-day to a photo op town meeting/campaign stop in a wind turbine factory when oil moves to $109

Again, folks, oil is now solidly over $110 and yet that inconvenient fact seems to go pretty much unnoticed on MSNBC and CNBC.

By the way, the only takeaway for me from that town meeting:

By the way, President Obama thinks it is something to laugh about if folks are still driving vehicles that get 8 mpg.

“If you’re complaining about the price of gas and you’re only getting 8 miles a gallon, you know,” Obama said laughingly. “You might want to think about a trade-in.” Let them eat cake.

Construction workers driving their personal pick-up trucks to work or farmers driving their pick-up trucks to their fields probably deserve a bit more respect than that. Something tells me the individual asking the question was not driving a Hummer. [Note: "anonymous" pointed out that my earlier example of Deere farm equipment and Caterpillar heavy construction equipment was a poor example; and suggested that folks driving Hummers deserve to be laughed at. Weren't Hummers made by Government Motors?]

I think that the federal government's response to Virginia's efforts to re-open drilling off-shore will show us where the administration is headed.

For Newbies: Why The Bakken Is So Exciting -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

The current boom in western North Dakota is focusing on the Bakken Pool (three Bakken formations and two Three Forks formations).

But let's take a look at something else for a moment.

Go to the GIS map server at the NDIC website.

Zoom in on the Cedar Hills oil field in the southwestern part of the state. There are as many as eight (8) laterals running through these sections. Here are the file numbers, the date spudded, the formation, and the total oil produced to date:

• 13944, South Red River B, 1996, 308K
• 15875, South Red River B, 2005, 440K
• 15876, South Red River B, 2005, 436K
• 15297, South Red River B, 2002, 28K 
• 15848, South Red River B, 2005, 184K
• 15846, South Red River B, 2005, 343K
• 15847, South Red River B, 2005, 603K
• 14108, North Red River B, 1996, 417K
• 15354, North Red River B, 2003, 10K
• 16491, North Red River B, 2007, 204K
• 16144, North Red River B, 2006, 135K
• 16194, North Red River B, 2006, 206K
• 14109, North Red River B, 1996, 273K
• 15264, North Red River B, 2008, 25K
• 14014, North Red River B, 1997, 250K
• 16691, North Red River B, 2007, 188K
• 15318, North Red River B, 2008, 13K

Some comments:

• For newbies, any well with cumulative > 100,000 wells is a very good well
• These wells are not all that old
• On the other other hand, the older wells (1996) shows how long these wells produce
• Almost all these wells are still producing very nicely; some quite nicely
• The 17 wells picked up above, were picked completely randomly from the GIS map server (from the same immediate area, but the area was picked randomly from the Cedar Hills field; note that only three wells were not good wells; that's a pretty nice success rate; there are not many "dry" wells or "abandoned" wells in this area)
• CLR has been in this area from the beginning; to me, the Red River seems pretty good, but yet, CLR says they've never seen oil production like they are seeing in the Bakken
• #14108, spudded in 1996, is still producing at 3,000 bbls/month (water injected); that production level exceeds much of its past history of production
• If the Bakken was not as exciting as the Red River, the operators would not be spending $7 million on a Bakken well when they could be drilling the Red River formation
• One producing well holds that lease by production "forever" and the right to put in more wells in that same leased area
• Again, there are as many as 8 horizontals running through these sections in the Cedar Hills oil field; based on dockets coming to the NDIC last month and this month, we are going to see the same number of horizontals in the areas focusing on the Bakken

Two Nice Bakken Wells Reported: ERF (1,676) and EOG (1,476) -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Coming off the confidential list today, are two nice wells:

• 19157, 1,476, EOG, Bear Den 04-20H, Spotted Horn, Bakken, spudded 10/10; tested 3/11;
  18545, 1,676, ERF, Ethan Hall 6B-7-1H, Moccasin Creek, Bakken, spudded 10/10; tested 2/11; 22K first 18 days

In addition, Oil for America's Wieglenda 23-1 is reported to still be in DRL status. This is one of five wells Oil for America is currently drilling, targeting the Lodgepole. My understanding is that these were vertical wells and did not have a horizontal component.

This is where I archive Oil for America data. To see all "Oil for America" posts, click on the label at the bottom of the blog.