Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Notes From All Over -- Not a Bakken Story

Do not worry; this posting will disappear soon but I make some notes for archival purposes. I will get back to the Bakken shortly.

Hybrid autos: consumer purchases of hybrids are headed for their third consecutive decline. The current administration has bought one-fourth of the Ford and GM hybrid vehicles sold since the current president took office, accelerating federal purchases as consumer demand wanes. Global sales are projected to be 2.2% of all passenger vehicles sold worldwide. Bloomberg News, November 24, 2010.

Cost of green energy: Rocky Mountain Power seeks rate increase of 17 percent. This comes on recent rate increases of 5.1 percent this past July (2010) and a 1.9 percent in February 2011. The new rate increase, if granted, would become effective September 22, 2011. Wind energy, new transmission lines associated with those wind projects, and additional environmental controls account for part of the reason for the increase.

Winter Has Arrived: huge winter storms from the Pacific Coast and across the Midwest. Portland, Oregon, had snow yesterday; the last time Portland saw snow on that date was seven years ago. I don't know the final number but if Portland did not get above freezing (I don't know if it did) that would have set a record that held for 25 years. Now we see a huge winter storm moving across the Rockies and into North Dakota.

Winter Has Arrived: freezing temps in southern California poses worries for farmers and homeless.

Winter Has Arrived: According to CNBC weatherman, this is the coldest Thanksgiving he can remember. The whole western half of the US is experiencing record cold. 

Companies Post Best Quarter Ever -- Not a Bakken Story

Do not worry; this post will disappear shortly, but I post some notes for personal and archival reasons. I will return to the Bakken shortly.  If you don't want to read about this, I would highly recommend reading about the Lodgepole (posted a couple days ago for those who missed it).

I started this website as an educational website about the Bakken in North Dakota; it gradually morphed into covering the entire oil industry in North Dakota. Over time, I realized it was impossible to separate investing issues in the oil industry from the educational aspect of the Bakken. So, gradually, the site has morphed into about 45/45: educational / investing posts about the Bakken. I suppose, in a sense, one could argue that all posts about the oil industry ultimately lead back to investing.

The other 10 percent consists of investing in general, political comments, and miscellaneous trivia.

Today the New York Times is reporting that in terms of profits, US companies had their best quarter ever. I never, never would have guessed that with all the negative mainstream media news.

This is being reported as the best quarter ever. Not the best quarter since the current recession began; not the best quarter since the dot.com bubble; not the best quarter in a decade; not the best decade in fifty years; but in words no one can misunderstand: the best quarter ever.

Businesses earned profits at an annual rate of $1.659 trillion in the third quarter; that is the highest figure recorded since the government began keeping records more than 60 years ago (non-inflation-adjusted).

The next-highest annual corporate profits level on record was in the third quarter of 2006, $1.655 trillion.
Since their cyclical low in the fourth quarter of 2008, profits have grown for seven consecutive quarters, at some of the fasted rates in history.
I recently posted that the Bakken has offered recurrent opportunities to invest. It appears that the opportunities exist in the general market. 

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

New Record: 161 Active Rigs

Wow, wow, wow, 8:27 p.m. CST, Tuesday, November 23, 2010, and "we" have a new record: 161 active rigs in North Dakota.

Back on September 3, 2010, we were at 146, and I was completely surprised. I opined then "we" had probably topped out. Boy, was I wrong. Less than three months later, up to 161. 

Assuming none of the companies that contract these rigs leaves the Bakken in the next twelve months, it's hard to say how much higher this could go: Williams Cos has bought acreage and will start drilling next year, I assume. Enerplus (ERF) bought additional acreage in the past few months and I assume they will want to increase drilling. Hess bought all that TRZ acreage. NOG announces last week they will be doubling their CAPEX program in 2011.

There's still a lot of work to be done in the Bakken formations.

Folks are just getting started in another proven field, the Three Forks Sanish.

Leasing has begun for the Tyler formation.

There's a bit of activity directed to the Spearfish formation.

And we haven't even mentioned the Madison, which has accounted for 52% of all oil produced in North Dakota.

The "sleeper"? The Lodgepole. The most productive single well in North Dakota is a Lodgepole well (when you get to this link, scroll down), and recently there has been more interest.

Week 46: November 15 - November 21

The Lodgepole: An Update

Hess Acquires TRZ LLC For Cash

Sagebrush Madison Wells in Bottineau County

Rail Oil Loading Facility Update

Overview of the NDIC Hearing Dockets

Natural Gas Processing Plant At Watford City Approved

Opportunity Knocks a Third Time in the Bakken

Leasing Starts on Tyler Formation

Clean Coal Story -- North Dakota

Companies Fracturing in the Bakken

NOG to Offer 10 Million Shares; Doubles CAPEX for 2011

 IPs and Hess' Six-Will Multi-Pads

Williams Cos Buys Seven Percent of Reservation

Takeaway Capacity vs Production One Year From Now

Halliburton: Frac Fluids From Food Industry

Two More Bakken Investments

QEP Setting Up Shop in Parshall

Bakken Technology Changing American Landscape

Fourteen (14) New Permits -- North Dakota, USA

Operators: Hess (6), EOG (2), XTO (2), Petro-Hunt (2), North Plains, Whiting.

Fields: Lignite, West Capa, Bell, Indian Hill, Clear Water, Banks, Tioga, and three wildcats.

Hess has six (6) permits one multi-well pad in Williams County, Tioga field, 25-158N-95W. The wells will sit 50 feet apart from each other, running in a direct north-south line.

Whiting has another permit in Stark County, continuing that trend.

By the way, this daily activity report, November 23, 2010, also includes the Dakota Salts LLC, permit for the exploratory potash well in Burke County, file number 99190. The name is Sorenson Eby Etal 1, SESE 31-163N-91W. The permit was actually granted August 13, 2010.

On track for 1,688 permits for calendar year, 2010, North Dakota.