Takeaway Capacity vs Production One Year From Now

According to the most recent NDIC Director's Cut, total North Dakota oil production increased four (4) percent month-over-month in September (2010). If this rate (4%) were to remain stable, total North Dakota production one year from now would be almost 550,000 bbls/day. (Production should exceed 4% increase month-over-month except for fact that infrastructure may not be able to keep up.)

To see the "official" takeaway capacity, click on the Continental Resource's presentations, then click on the Investor Day 2010 presentation (a PDF download), and go to slide 52 (of 79).  Current (January, 2011) pipeline capacity is 340,000 barrels/day.

At the end of 2011, there will be an additional 50,000 bbls/day pipeline capacity, yielding a total of 390,000 bbls pipeline capacity, well below the 550,000 bbls/day of production that occurs with a 4% monthly increase between now and then. Truck traffic is now taking about six percent of oil to Canada, and I doubt that can be increased much; the roads can't take it.  Railroad capacity is scalable, but evenso, 100,000 more barrels/day by train is no small deal. (Warren Buffett and  his BNI acquisition keeps looking better and better.)

The big jump in pipeline capacity occurs in January, 2013, with the completion of the Keystone XL, but as noted earlier, this project is on hold. If the Keystone XL is delayed, pipeline capacity would be severely strained.

I'm not sure if the ONEOK and Enbridge initiatives are included in that slide. Regardless, there's going to be a lot of new pipeline being laid in North Dakota over the next few years.