Locator: 500056MIDEAST.
Significant events -- observations and comments:
- current events began on January 13, 2026, when Iranian officials stated they "were ready for war."
- probably began when Trump began to get serious about Iran's continued / renewed work on Iran's nuclear program
- quickly, US and Iran worked for a diplomatic solution
- "no one" took Iran's overtures seriously
- tens of thousands of Iranian civilians may have been murdered
- Trump has a short fuse when large numbers of civilians are harmed
- high level diplomatic talks with Trump's personal envoys set in motion
- Iran stalling for time; Trump played along; it worked to his advantage
- in early February, Iran's military took aggressive action on US vessels on two separate occasions;
- either one could have resulted in a "Bay of Tonkin" resolution; neither did; Trump ignored the events;
- the Netanyahu - Trump summit, February 11, 2026;
- when that history is written, years from now, that may be seen as the most important date;
- think Tehran Conference, Churchill-FDR, November 28 - December 1, 1943
- finalized "Overlord" with Stalin
- six months later for a much, much bigger "event"
- it won't take six months this time.
- mid February, 2026, a second US a/c carrier arrives in the region
- except when "we" go to war (or may go to war) in the region. the US has one a/c carrier on site in the Mideast
- the most recent a/c carrier is the US' largest a/c carrier, the Gerald R Ford
- the White House schedules a briefing on the Mideast / Iran for February 18, 2026;
- the Olympics end this weekend, February 22, 2026;
- US Congress returns to work, Monday, February 23, 2026;
- the State of the Union address is scheduled for Tuesday, February 24, 2026.
That brings us up to date.
The optics will not be good if "we" go to war with Iran and the Department of Homeland Security remains unfunded. Already, the optics are starting to go "south."
All those audits of ICE mandated by US Congress? They've all been put on hold while the DHS remains unfunded. Wow. Not good. For Schumer and his counterpart in the US House.
Trump may give the US Congress one week to fund DHS. It's unlikely US Congress would be willing to vote on funding anything during hostilities with Iran.
Possibilities:
- reactive response by the US to a major Iranian provocation
- Iranian hardliners may inadvertently (or purposely) instigate a provocation;
- Olympics may or may not be an Iranian concern
- proactive response regardless of Iranian diplomatic efforts; stalling has gone on long enough;
- Netanyahu gave Trump the "green light" in early February, 2026, but both agreed upon a "not earlier than" date for a proactive attack
- proactive attack could simply be a re-play of the first 12-hour US attack on Iran, and warn them ahead of time that's all it would be unless Iran escalated the situation.
