Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Chickens Are Coming Home To Roost -- October 7, 2025

Locator: 49321POLITICS. 

Items:

  • soybeans: link here. Could be a "bloodbath."
  • AI prompt: 
    • The WSJ is now suggesting the soybean farmer could be facing a "bloodbath." Going back to the Great Depression, have the farmers ever faced a greater threat? 
    • AI agrees with my analysis; hard to believe -- well, not really. 
  • tariffs: 50-50 that US Supreme Court will allow. Link here. It's a coin toss.
  • Hamas: the deadline has come and passed.
  • air transportation: wait until the sick-calls start coming in! Link here.
  • government shutdown: President Trump is starting to get wobbly; could begin negotiating.
  • the Insurrection Act of 1807: link here

TSA and Clear: it's a race. A good news story! Link here.  

San Francisco: its most-storied mall is in a death spiral. I saw this happen in Portland, Oregon, It's not a pretty sight. 

  • San Francisco Centre, once among Bay Area's top-performing retail centers, is bleeding millions of dollars a year.
  • ghost town: 93% of it 1.5 million square feet sits vacant
  • cause: homelessness, shoplifting, drug use: exactly what happened in Portland, OR
  • Nordstrom and Bloomingdale's both shut down in the past two years
  • no sympathy; self-inflicted.

Hollywood: LA's entertainment economy is starting to look like a disaster movie. Link here

The entertainment industry is in a downward spiral that began when the dual strikes by actors and writers ended in 2023
Work is evaporating, businesses are closing, longtime residents are leaving, and the heart of L.A.’s creative middle class is hanging on by a thread.

“This is the first year since 1989 that I haven’t had a show to work on,” said Pixie Wespiser, a 62-year-old production manager and producer who has worked on 36 TV series, including the original “Night Court” and its recent revival. “I look around and I see so many people who are seriously suffering.” 

Ford: is this a bigger story than we were first led to believe? Link here. F shares drop 6% today.

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X-Files

The files:

  • Trump wins again: US Senate confirms 107 Trump nominees in bloc vote -- seventh day of Schumer shutdown. Link here
  • Another first for Trump: US Senate confirms Herschel Walker as US Ambassador to the Bahamas, first confirmed Amabassador to the Bahamas since 2011 -- say what? Link here.
  • It's not a bubble when the two richest men on earth are making deals -- Nvidia is reportedly investing $2 billion into Elon Musk's xAI as part of xAI's fund-raising round. Link here.
  • Cash problem: Nvidia. Nothing moves the needle any more. Same problem I have. LOL. Link here.
  • Nvidia chips: their own asset class. That's why I'm not worried about the Oracle story today. Link here.
  • Pipelines: Texas and the gulf coast. Link here.
  • AMD: the unusual deal to finance OpenAI's cip purchases --> potential $100 billion for AMD? Link here.
  • Vicky Hollub: hasn't delivered for her investors. Link here.
  • Politics: there's no secret that the Clooneys are a hit in London. Not so much in the US. Link here.