Wednesday, November 27, 2024

PCE -- The Fed's Favorite Inflation Number -- November 27, 2024

Locator: 44436INFLATION.

Income: doubled. Solid number.

Spending: as expected, another strong number.

Real spending: also good.

Price index, m/m: in line.

Price index, y/y: in line. Okay, but not necessarily a great number.

PCE -- core, m/m: in line. Okay, but not necessarily a great number.

PCE -- core, y/y: in line. Okay, but not necessarily a great number. 2.8% vs 2.7% estimated.

What does the market think: three major indices might be slightly lower, but not particularly remarkable.

Sarah Eisen:

  • in line
    • inflation: 2.3%
    • core: 2.8%
    • it is what it is
  • will the Fed still likely cut in December? Yes.
  • economy doing well: healthy spending and income coming in double what was expected

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