Squawk On The Street -- Sara Is Talking "Goldilocks" Economy -- November 30, 2023

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Updates

Later, 3:08 p.m. CT: think about this. Assume all the inflation, the state of the US economy after March, 2020, was due to supply chain issues, and now as of March 2024, there are no longer any supply chain issues. Think along that line. One has to come up with a reason for market action this past six months and so far I haven't heard any theories that make sense. My technical analysis:

Later, 2:49 p.m. CT: Dow closes up 520 points; S&P up 17 and the Nasdaq essentially flat (down 32 points). The VIX was also flat, closing at 12.89. For the archives, Elon Musk releases the first Cybertruck. Price still unknown. Most likely the highest of the high end, the CYBERBEAST: starts at $96,300 was released today. Most folks buying a Ford F-150 are probably paying $55K. See comments.

Later, 12:30 p.m. CT: throughout the day, the second most used word was "deflation." The most used word for the economy -- "Goldilocks."  With regard to the Fed and the economy, it breaks down to two groups, no surprise:

• bankers, pessimists: soft, shallow recession almost guaranteed; a hard landing but perhaps not that hard;
• optimists, tech analysis: no recession; based on data, the Fed should be cutting sooner than later;
  

Original Post

Link here. Look how fast CPI -- to include FOOD and ENERGY -- has fallen since January, this year, and the US debt and deficit have only increased. I still maintain inflation is not one-dimensional.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

S&P

• gainers: of the ten, three are oil-related -- PSX, MRO, CVX
• laggards: AAPL (45 cents -- LOL -- a laggard?)
  

Top tier CNBC anchors: Sara Eisen among a small handful.

• Sara is talking about a "Goldilocks" economy today.

Top tier analysts: Tom Lee, Josh Brown among a very, very small handful.

Chicago PMI: holy mackerel. Link here for definition.

• 55.8 vs 46 estimate
• "a stratospheric number" for November; "red hot"
  
• market turns down; S&P turns negative; Nasdaq turns negative -- that was "flash, momentary"
• five minutes later: Dow surges 300 points; S&P green again; Nasdaq still down a small amount;
  
• recession? What recession?
  

Housing: sales not indicating a recession. That's all you need to know. Everything else is background noise.

Inflation numbers: all looking incredibly good. Tea leaves suggest consumer prices are going to fall after Christmas -- and we will probably see that start to happen the Saturday before Christmas.

Unemployment: if unemployed right now, it's going to become difficult to get hired. 

Eurozone: inflation falls much more than expected. 

Bad news: CNBC seems to having trouble finding bad news for the economy.

Reminder:

• NFL TNF tonight
  
• Cybertruck tonight
• the two will probably play out at the same time
  

Market opens:

• Dow: up 166. SalesForce (CRM) accounts for almost all of this.
  
• Nasdaq: up 5.
• S&P:up 6.5.
• WTI: $78.95.

Cramer:

• Hormel's numbers horrible yesterday
• explains why: has nothing to do with the consumer
• again, a great analysis
• has to do with deflation
• turkey prices plummeted so fast, Hormel couldn't pass cost to consumer
• result: Hormel took huge loss on turkeys at Thanksgiving
  
• yes, so those folks hoping for disinflation / deflation may get their wish

Barron's:

Automobile manufacturers' letter to President Biden: despite all Biden's efforts, EVs are piling up. Americans not buying them. EVs way too expensive; gasoline too cheap.

Elon Musk: absolutely fascinating

• unfiltered

Nvidia: I finally get it. What's the tectonic change in computing? 

Jensen Huang gets it. One word: reasoning. Sam Altman's work has proved computers can do it. This is earth-shattering

Elon Musk: AI is more dangerous than nuclear weapons. "We" regulate nuclear weapons. Elon is concerned. Jensen Huang seems to be unconcerned.

My hunch: they're talking past each other. One must remember that Elon says he cannot make the chips that Nvidia is able to make. This is why BRK / Buffett / Munger could never .... readers to fill in the blank

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Donut Shop

Our donut shop: best donuts in the neighborhood. We never leave without a "full box." The person behin the counter refuses to let the customer leave with "empty spaces" in the box. She fills all empty space with donut holes at no extra cost.

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The Movie Page

Maestro. Rex Reed review.

Carey Mulligan.

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The Book Page

My copy of Chris Skidmore's Richard III arrived yesterday. It felt different than the copy I read from the local library. Now, I see why. The library copy was an edition published in the US; the copy I got was published in England.

Of all the reading I've done, my "work" with Virginia Woolf, Brenda James' Shakespeare, and the War of the Roses, has been the most rewarding, most satisfying. 

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Apartment Living

A most interesting way of decorating one's garage. I love it.