Rambling -- Tax Day -- April 18, 2023

Locator: 44413R. 

I've not seen any folks on social media talking about why this is absolutely the "Goldilocks" economy for investors with disposable (investment) income or "revenue stream."

Schwab is learning the hard way. Investors now have so many ways to earn 4% annually or better in almost risk-free investments. Most recently, this week, Apple announces a pain-free way to open a savings account earning -- risk-free -- 4.5%. What that means for me is that many of my "bread and butter" investments need to keep raising their dividends if they hope to keep their investors and/or attract more capital. JNJ is a great example. That Apple savings account won't offer any capital appreciation, but JNJ certainly will. 

I assume that the 4.5% payout by Apple will cost the company some money but surprisingly, AAPL rose on a down day for the market. Whoo-hoo! 

Look at NVDA. Doesn't pay much of a dividend -- none, for all practical matters -- but NVDA rose 2.5% today, adding $6.65 / share, trading at $277. Again, another whoo-hoo!

I think it's now pretty much a consensus that the Fed, with regard to the "Fed rate" will pause at best, and perhaps even better, start cutting by the end of the year. If you want to play that game, now is the time to lock in some medium-term / long-term bonds.  

But wow, think what a pause or a cut in the Fed rate, even if it's just one 25-bp cut, will do for the overall market!

So, investors have so many options. Start an Apple savings account; buy mid- to long-term bonds, or continue building positions in equities. Some tell me that the "60-40" rule is back in vogue. LOL. 

I'm poolside tonight. A beautiful, beautiful evening. The stars are out. Venus is the brightest object in the night sky (at least the night sky that I can see) -- to the southwest. Below the horizon, tracking "below" Venus: Mercury and then Jupiter.Next? Sirius, directly south of me. 

After Venus, the next brightest object? Sirius. Directly to the south of me and almost "straight across" from Venus.

Because of "light pollution," I can't see Orion's belt, but drawing a line from Sirius, which I can see, upwards and to the southwest. Like the North Star in the northern hemisphere, Sirius will someday be the "southern Pole Star." Link here for a great discussion, January 5, 2023.

I just added the subject heading for this evening's blog -- "Tax Day." I think this was the best tax day I've ever had. Three things:

• automatic extension for non-resident taxes due in another state; send check with estimate for calendar year 2022;
• automatic extension for Federal taxes: overpaid, will eventually see refund applied to next year's tax bill; send check for estimated taxes, 2023, Voucher 1;
• ignore the second state in which I owe taxes; that state always withholds too much and when I get around to filing, will also get a refund.
• there is no third state: Texas has no state income tax.
  

This could be the last year that I have a complicated tax filing.

JNJ

: dividend history. Link here.

JNJ: $1.19. From 84 cents in 2018.

[(1.19 - 0.84) / 0.84) = 42%. A 42% increase in one's JNJ dividend income. If one were a JNJ heiress living off a million-dollar dividend in 2018, that heiress is now being paid $1,420,000. Is that correct? Even a hundred-thousand-dollar dividend in 2018 is now paying $142,000. Is that correct? I don't know what inflation was doing between 2018 and 2023, but I doubt it was 42%. But maybe my assumptions, my math is wrong.

Music tonight? Jean Michel Jarre. We'll start with Oxygene. 

Jean Michel Jarre was my "go-to" music the first couple of years stationed in Germany back in the early 1980s. I think it started with his Les Concerts en Chine, released about the same time we landed in Germany.

Book tonight? California: America's High-Stakes Experiment, Peter Schrag, c. 2006. 

I'm tempted to transcribe it for the blog, one paragraph every day. I doubt I'll do it, but we'll see. We're going to have some long summer evenings starting next month and lasting through September.

Health? I'm in incredibly good physical and mental health but the tea leaves suggest I won't be around in 2024. 

Wow, talk about cliff-hanger, a teaser. But that's my premonition. My tea leaves. As a physician, I think I know what I'm talking about. Time will tell. Cliche.