Latest forecast: 3.5 percent — March 1, 2018.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 3.5 percent on March 1, up from 2.6 percent on February 27.
The nowcasts of first-quarter real consumer spending growth and first-quarter real private fixed-investment growth increased from 2.0 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, to 2.9 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively, after this morning's data releases.
The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for February—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.23 to 1.68 after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management.
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