Recount -- November 24, 2016

Updates

December 12, 2016, 7:57 p.m. Central Time: pretty much complete and official. Trump wins in Wisconsin again -- by an even larger margin. Absentee ballots, it appears, widened his lead. Of the 1.5 million ballots case, the recount resulted in a net change of 312 votes for the top two candidates . Trump gained 844 to Hillary's 713,  a 131-net gain for Trump, widening his lead, and thus cutting the US popular vote. The newest tally came just in time for the entire Washington bureaucracy to agree that the Russians were instrumental in getting Trump elected over Hillary.

December 12, 2016: the Wisconsin recount is complete; just waiting to be certified -- story came out about 10:30 a.m. Central Time this morning. After all that, Trump's 20,000+ margin of victory decreased by about 25 votes. Pennsylvania recount nixed earlier today by a federal judge. Michigan recount stopped some time ago.

December 12, 2016: Wisconsin update here; Stein paid $3.5 million to prove the original tally was 99.9999% accurate. Had Stein voters voted for Hillary in the first place, Hillary would not be PEOTUS. If I were Stein, I would not stand near any subway tracks. If Trump wins the electoral college vote, it will be the third time he's won this race: a) Hillary conceded at 3:00 a.m., November 9, 2016, hours after the election booths closed; b) Trump won the recount; and, c) Trump wins the Electoral College. He will be the first PEOTUS to have won the same election three times. 

December 12, 2016: Jill, Hillary, and the Dems, in general, did the country a huge disservice by demanding / proceeding with recounts for any number of reasons. Nice overview in Wisconsin here.  In case the link breaks, the three final paragraphs:

Some Stein and Hillary supporters have responded to the utter lack of significance in the recount results by blaming it on the denial of a statewide hand recount (a decision reached by a state judge at the beginning of the recount process). That’s an absurd argument in a couple of different ways. First, 47 of Wisconsin’s 72 counties did perform hand recounts, and another 13 had a mix of precincts doing hand recounts or machine recounts; two of those 13 only had one municipality using machines. Only 12 counties conducted their recounts entirely by machines. The 47 counties that exclusively conducted recounts by hand account for roughly 70% of the vote total in the election.

The second absurdity: It turns out that there was little difference in the change rate for hand-recounted precincts. The overall change rate for the state thus far has been 0.0551%, as noted above. The overall change rate for the 47 counties that conducted recounts entirely by hand was … 0.0607%. The difference between those two change rates, applied to the entire state’s vote total, would add another 166 votes in total.

The state should finish its recount sometime today. If for some reason the remaining precincts do not report final recount totals, the state does have the option of using their original Election Night tallies in order to certify their slate of electors in time for tomorrow’s safe-harbor deadline for the Electoral College, but it’s unlikely it will come to that. It won’t make any difference at all anyway. As was utterly predictable, recounting a state with a 22,617-vote gap was a waste of time, resources, and money … but at least Jill Stein got another 15 minutes of conspiracy-theory fame in 2016, and a lot of fools and their money suffered their usual fate.

December 12, 2016: All that cash: judge rejects Pennsylvania recount. Thirty-one pages; at least six (6) grounds on which to reject Jill's request. The best:

Suspicion of a hacked Pennsylvania election "borders on the irrational" while granting the Green Party's recount bid could "ensure that that no Pennsylvania vote counts" given Tuesday's federal deadline to certify the vote for the Electoral College, Diamond wrote.

December 10, 2016: talk about eyes wide shut. Trump won by a landslide in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania considering historical norms. Jill Stein, gaining about 1% of the votes in those states has put Trump's electoral win in doubt, and yet President Obama and Hillary Clinton have not told Jill Stein to go suck eggs. But yet President Obama finds time to tell the president of Gambia, in very strong language, to honor the election result there. From "breaking news":

White House 'strongly condemns' Gambia President Yahya Jammeh's rejection of election results, calls for peaceful democratic transition.

December 9, 2016, 6:46 p.m. Central Time: wiki keeps things up to date, including the Philadelphia ruling today. The Philadelphia federal judge heard the case today, and said he will rule on the case on Monday, December 12, 2016. The state must certify the state's vote as of December 13, 2016, if the voters are not to be disenfranchised. Wisconsin's recount is pretty much complete according to wiki and will meet the December 12, 2016, deadline. Michigan Supreme Court voted 3 - 2 to halt/deny the recount. Two of the Michigan Supreme Court justices recused themselves. Three of the five remaining justices were GOP justices. It appears justice is not blind, but political as ever.

December 7, 2016, 7:52 p.m. Central Time: reported a few hours earlier, the same judge that ruled the recount must be begin immediately, has stopped the recount completely. This most likely ends things in Michigan, but there are appellate courts. But we will soon run out of time; ballot boxes in Detroit are missing; if an appellate court overturns this, the state starts to look like a banana republic. 

December 7, 2016: from breaking news -- Judge denies appeal by Jill Stein's lawyers for forensic examination of voting machines in Philadelphia. This was about 10:00 a.m., Wednesday, December 7, 2016. About 90% of the votes are electronic with no paper trail, so it would simply be a matter of plugging in the machines if a recount is permitted.

December 7, 2016: Pennslvania -- US News, 1:39 a.m. December 7, 2016 --

Also Tuesday, Pennsylvania election officials updated the state's vote count to show that Trump's lead over Clinton had shrunk to about 44,000 out of more than 6 million votes cast. That is still shy of Pennsylvania's 0.5 percent trigger for an automatic statewide recount. A state spokeswoman said 15 provisional ballots remain uncounted

December 7, 2016: Federal courts vs state courts in Michigan.  Any rational person reading that article could figure this out; unfortunately, the federal judge is an Obama appointee and that changes everything.

December 6, 2016: I certainly hope this is accurate. I'm getting tired of Jill Stein. From "breakingnews.com": 

The Detroit Free Press reports that the Michigan Court of Appeals rejected Jill Stein's recount as improper because Stein is not an aggrieved candidate and "she has no chance to overturn the result of the presidential election in her favor.

December 6, 2016:

• Michigan: apparently the re-count continues but major issues;
• Wisconsin: the numbers are all over the place, but Trump's lead may be widening significantly, but really hard to say
• Pennsylvania: judge has now scheduled a hearing for Friday, yes, Friday, December 9. The votes must be certified by December 12th or 13th.
• all three states need to fail to certify by December 13th to throw this to the one-state-one-vote process
• if Wisconsin completes the recount, and certifies that Trump won, then he has enough electoral votes, but it would not take many "faithless electors" to throw the vote to the one-state-one-vote process
• one would think that it would be impossible for a state the size of Pennsylvania to accomplish a recount if the hearing is Friday, but 90% of the votes are electronic with no paper trail, so it would simply be a matter of plugging in the machines, flipping a switch, but then one still has to go through the process of verifying each machine, yada, yada, yada
• at this point it hinges on Wisconsin and few if any "faithless electors" if Pennsylvania is required to do a recount; the Trump lead is getting very close to the 0.5% threshold that required an automatic recount
• Michigan did certify its original tally; it's my understanding that if the recount is not completed by the December 13; then the original tally (certified) is the one that counts
• it's not beyond the pale to see legal action on/about December 13th through December 19th that mainstream media will start using the phrase "constitutional crisis"

December 5, 2016, 8:21 p.m.: it's hard to find "real-time" updates about what Jill Stein is doing with regard to Pennsylvania? Where is the federal court located; who is the judge; have they met; when do the lawyers argue their case? Anyway having said that, this is a pretty good summary and it's only four hours old.  Critical data points for Pennsylvania:

• although the tally has dropped, Trump still leads by more than 0.5% -- the threshold for an automatic recount
• PA is one of 14 states across the US that uses electronic voting machines that have no paper ballot audit capability; in other words, once the machine is turned off, locked, and certified, a recount is simply turning the machine on and producing a summary. No matter how many times you do that, you will get the same number
• of 23,725 machines certified for use statewide, 22,123 record votes electronically and leave no paper trail
• not all counties have certified their votes, but the few remaining are too few remain to overturn the outcome (the article did not say if there were enough to hit the 0.5% threshold triggering an automatic recount

No way to confirm the veracity of this, but someone stated that in the Wisconsin recount, Trump has picked up 33 votes as of early today (Monday). This source, a day old, for days 3 and 4 of the recount suggests Trump has picked up "3 dozen votes." The good news: if the recount so far is random, legitimate, and a good representation of the entire electorate, the outcome will not change.

In Wisconsin, Trump beat Hillary by 27,257 votes (election night tally, before any recount. Libertarian candidate, Larson, got 106,442 votes. Those were the only named candidates receiving votes. Jill Stein received 30,980 votes. Source: Ballotpedia. In other words, Jill Stein can be said to have the singular distinction of being the reason Hillary lost Wisconsin. Libertarians may not have voted for Hillary, but sure as shootin', "green" voters weren't going to vote for Trump. If Jill Stein was not on the ballot, 110% of the Green vote would have gone to Hillary. 

In Michigan, it was even worse.  Trump won by 10,704 votes. Jill Stein received 51,463 votes. Wow.

In Pennsylvania, the original tally show Trump won by 75,018 votes, but we are being told that number has dropped to 49,000. In Pennslvania, Jill Stein won 48,795 votes.

No wonder Jill is so desperate to move this to the US House of Representatives. She truly stole the presidency from Hillary and handed it to Trump.

December 5, 2016: some say Jill Stein cost Hillary Clinton the election. In Pennsylvania, Trump's lead is down to about 49,000. Jill received about 49,000 votes in Pennsylvania. "Official" tally in Pennsylvania: Trump: 2,912,941; Hillary: 2,844,705; Larson: 142,653; Other: 69,808.

December 5, 2016: Judge orders immediate start to recount in Michigan; orders SecState to have recount accomplished by December 13, 2016 (Federal drop-dead date). Wisconsin had a full week head-start on the recount and even their SecState was less-than-convincing that the state could finish the recount on time. It appears that the Michigan judge is under the impression that if the recount is not completed by December 13th, it will not affect the Michigan electors -- the electors have already been certified and certification sent to Washington -- unless a recount flips the outcome. If the judge is not correct and if a recount is ordered in Pennsylvania (which would make no sense, but then neither did killing DAPL), it increases the odds immensely that the one-state-one-vote rule will decide the next president of the US.

The Michigan judge ordered that the recount must begin immediately, and there's the rub: the definition of "start." The first thing a recount requires is a plan how to proceed. And meeting to discuss the plan is a "start" to the recount.

December 4, 2016: within hours of dropping her lawsuit in Pennsylvania state court, Jill Stein says she will take the fight to a Federal court. Obviously no one knows what this means or where it will go. At the Federal level, I assume she is taking this to the Federal Election Commission. I don't know any of the FEC laws, regulations, interests, or concerns, but I assume most of them concern fairness and fraud prevention. If that is generally accurate, it's hard to believe the FEC will have any reason to step into this quixotic tilting at windmills. If the FEC steps in and rules that all three states must complete a recount, and if Wisconsin can't make the deadline (the other two definitely won't at this late date, unless everyone's been "crying wolf" for the past week), Trump will fall just short of the 270 votes needed. Neither he nor Hillary will have a majority and the 50 states will determine the outcome -- each state will get one vote. This year it won't make much difference: Trump's "party" controls 31 state governorships and/or legislatures; he only needs 26 votes. But if the FEC acquiesces to Stein's demands on no evidence of fraud it sets an incredibly interesting precedent. It means that henceforth anyone can go to the FEC and request a recount in certain states, in some years it may take only one state, and throw the vote back to the one-state-one-vote process. One doesn't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out where this leads us. 

December 3, 2016: fact -- Jill Stein announces that she has dropped the lawsuit for a recount in Pennsylvania. That should end it. But ....

• I don't think anyone has exact numbers; counties continue to update certified counts
• original tally, Trump by ~ 71,000 (slightly over 1%)
• as counties have certified ballots, Trump's lead has dropped to 49,000 (about 0.8%)
• counties are still certifying ballots but not being reported how close we are to the end of that process
• at 0.5%, a recount is automatic; no has to request it
• 71,000 to 49,000 is 22,000 vote decrease
• it would take another 18,000 vote decrease to hit automatic recount
• that's why it's important to stop recount in Michigan or Wisconsin
• again, it takes all three states to miss deadline to thrown vote into US House of Represenative

December 2, 2016: the tea leaves suggest the 2016 presidential election will be decided in the US House of Representatives.

• the recount has begun in Wisconsin; the state says the recount will be complete by December 12, 2016, with an all-out 24/7 effort; but now Trump lawyers have filed a lawsuit to stop the recount; the recount will continue but if the judge puts a stay on the recount -- holds it up for even a couple of days, going into the weekend, there's no way the recount will be finished on time
• Michigan: the recount has not begun; Trump lawyers have also filed a lawsuit to stop the recount in this state; the fact that the recount has not even begun suggests the recount will not be completed by December 12 if the recount is mandated
• Pennsylvania: the recount has not begun; the judge has set Monday to be the day he/she will hear the case; if Wisconsin can barely make the deadline with almost a week head's start, there's no way PA can make the deadline if a full recount is mandated; the judge, I suppose, could request a sampling -- if no evidence of shenanigans, then maybe he/she would call off the recount
• at least one state of the three has to have clear-cut resolution by December 13th for this not to go to the US House
• in the US House, each state gets one vote; the state "delegation" gets one vote; generally, the governor of the state leads the "delegation" but my hunch is that no one really knows; many states have representatives from more than one party; I still maintain that only a few states need to go rogue to deny Trump the presidency
• my hunch is that the judges in Michigan and Wisconsin are looking at the case in Florida (Gore vs Bush) in which the judge called a halt to the recount

December 1, 2016: where it stands. Over at The New York Times  -- just posted about 10 minutes ago, 7:02 p.m. Central Time.

• Wisconsin: Recount has started in Wisconsin. Will apparently work 24/7.
• Michigan: Trump takes it to court. Earliest recount could start, next Tuesday.
• Pennsylvania: a bit confusing; pending litigation, but recount might start Friday; question here, as well as Michigan, exactly what is being recounted and how. 
• at least one state needs to certify the recount by December 12th/13th. If all three states are late, Trump will fall short of 270 by about three electoral votes and the process will be thrown into the House of Representatives. Each state delegation gets one vote: thus the majority in the House of Representatives is 26 votes, 26 states. In fact, maybe it would be best for the three states to simply miss the deadline. Thirty-one (31) states have Republican governors, and governors generally lead a state's delegation.

December 1, 2016: this is interesting. A recount provides some insight into how the electorate voted. Initial review of the voting, according to Jill Stein, reveals that there was an extraordinary number of folks who did not vote for any presidential account. These are called "under votes." Probably because folks voted only for candidates and issues "under" the line, under the presidential contest. Stein says there were 84,000 under votes in Pennsylvania. If that holds up, Hillary can definitely look back at her campaign and realize she failed to convince potential voters that no vote for either Hillary or Trump meant a vote for Trump. Anyone standing in line for Trump was not going to NOT vote for Trump. Very interesting. Again, she (and her campaign team) missed the story. Trump did not have to worry about this.

December 1, 2016: the recount, where we stand --

• Wisconsin: judge rules again Stein; electronic recount allowed; recount to begin today; Trump won by margin of 27,257
• Michigan: recount to begin Friday; should be completed by December 10; Trump won by margin of 10,704 votes; it appears that upwards of 84,000 ballots showed no selection for Trump or Clinton
• Pennsylvania: judge will hear Jill Stein's argument on Monday, December 5. If judge rules for Jill Stein, based on time schedule announced in Wisconsin and  Michigan it will be almost impossible for votes to be certified by Federal deadline of December 13; Trump's margin in excess of 68,000
• to overturn the election, the outcome of all three states must be overturned
• if the outcome of two states is overturned, then the next concern: faithless electors

November 30, 2016: this might be the end of this craziness. The results of all three states need to be overturned to drop Trump below 270 (of course, it won't happen) but a delay in certifying votes could throw the outcome into the US House. Wisconsin said it would recount the votes at Stein's request, but would not deviate from the law which says an electronic recount is legitimate. She went to court on that; the judge ruled against her. At the linked article, it is said she won't appeal. The state will begin the electronic recount on Thursday, December 1, 2016, tomorrow. This ruling may also affect the judge's ruling in Pennsylvania when he/she is scheduled to hear Stein's petition for a recount even though she missed the deadline to file in that state.

November 28, 2016: wow, it never quits. Jill Stein missed the deadline, but now she has gone to court to stop certification of the results and to order a recount. Meanwhile, Wisconsin says they will begin the recount this Thursday. The federal deadline is December 13, 2016, for votes to be certified.

November 28, 2016: Jill Stein missed the deadline in Pennsylvania, and there's no way a court challenge will overturn that. Meanwhile, Wisconsin says they will do the recount but a) it's going to be an electronic recount; and, b) Stein will have to pony up the entire cost ahead of time, as opposed to just a deposit. With Pennsylvania out of the picture, the whole thing is entirely moot. Stein needed all three states to be overturned. PA was the biggest. One wonders if Wisconsin will see any money now. After all, that's a lot of money the environmentalists can use for other things. If the recount is "dead" even before it starts, Hillary really stepped in, siding with Jill Stein on this Quixotic jousting with the electoral college.

November 25, 2016: curiouser and curiouser. It turns out the electronic system in Michigan is not even connected to the Internet; hard to see how this was hacked. Jill is going to make a fool of herself. For $2 million or whatever it costs. Even Hillary is not so dumb as to get into this. Go, Jill, go.

Later, 3:25 p.m. Central Time, T+15; it's official -- Trump wins Michigan by 10,704 votes. To put that into perspective, Bush II took Florida over Algore by 1,500 votes before the recounts started. A recount in Michigan, by the way, would favor Trump, once all those from the dead and illegal aliens are thrown out.
 

Original Post

 

I wrote this at 7:39 a.m., Thursday, November 24, 2016, but did not post it. I have no intention of posting it unless events change to the degree that my notes merit posting. 

All that talk about a recount is silly.

1.  Jill Stein, 3rd party candidate; delivers a mixed message for her reason for a recount. She has raised enough money for the down payment required to file for recount in three states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Ohio is apparently not in the mix, nor will it be based on the margin by which Trump won Ohio.

2. Earliest deadline to file a request for a recount is Friday, November 25, in Wisconsin. Pennsylvania's deadline is Monday; and, Michigan's deadline is Wednesday.

3. One election official in Wisconsin has said they are preparing for a recount.

4. Michigan will most likely need a recount, regardless.

5. Pennsylvania, hard to say.

6. Electoral votes now: Trump has 306 and Hillary has 232. Jill Stein would have to prevail with all three states to overturn president-elect Trump.

7. Generally a 1% margin is adequate to determine a winner without a recount.

8. Wisconsin, 10:  -- Trump: 1,409,467; Hillary: 1,382,210; Larson: 106,442;  Other: 46,501  Total: 2,944,620. T: 47.8658%. H: 46.9402%.  So, slightly less than a 1% margin.

9. Michigan, 16:  Trump: 2,279,805: Hillary: 2,268,193; Larson: 173,057; Other: 69862 Total: 4,790,917. T: 47.58598%. H: 47.343608%. Way less than a 1% margin.

10. Pennsylvania, 20: Trump: 2,912,941; Hillary: 2,844,705; Larson: 142,653; Other: 69,808.  Total: 5,970,107. T: 48.792%. H: 47.649%. So, slightly more than 1%.

11. The percentages are close, but the 1% in Pennsylvania suggests that a recount won't change things.

12. Without PA, the effort is meaningless.

13. Raw number difference, however, is the real key. One only has to win by one vote over 50%. In Florida back in 2000 and the hanging chads, before the recounts began, the delta between Bush and Gore was 1,500 votes out of 9 million or so votes cast. And Bush still prevailed, perhaps by a margin of less than 750 votes. In the November, 2016, election the delta for T/H in WI: 27,257; MI: 11,612; PA: 68,236.

14. Even though the outcome was very, very close when looked at from a percentage point of view, the delta of almost 12,000 votes in Michigan is significantly different than 1,500 votes in Florida. The delta in Wisconsin is an even higher 27,000. In Pennsylvania, it is beyond the pale that a delta of 68,000 could be changed enough to effect the outcome. Again, if this becomes a nail-biter, the whole thing hinges on Pennsylvania where Trump leads by 68,000 votes.

15. How this will play out: Wisconsin will gladly do the recount if Jill Stein is willing to pay for the entire recount. She has enough for the downpayment. State officials will have to decide if she's "good" for the remaining amount on a losing effort. Pennsylvania will have to decide Monday. If Pennsylvania does not order a recount, the effort is moot. But I assume if Jill Stein has the money she will make the dowpayment and then, of course, Michigan will go forward with the recount.

16. If all three states do mandate a recount, and if the recount cannot be completed within 41 days after the November 8, 2016, election when the electoral college votes, then the outcome will be turned over to the US House of Representatives.

17. I'm not sure if Michigan is still counting votes from the November 8 election but if it is, it seems unlikely Michigan could get the recount done by December 19 when the electoral college votes. I would think that Pennsylvania could meet the deadline. I assume the deadlines were selected based on the 41-day rule.

18. "Faithless electors" factor. If the recount were to favor Hillary in Michigan and Wisconsin, that would leave Trump with 309 - 10 - 16 = 283 electoral votes. There are reports that up to six GOP electors could vote for Hillary, pushing Trump to 277 votes. The concern, of course, is that if there is a) turn of events in Michigan and Wisconsin; and, b) the drumbeat of ever-increasing popular vote Hillary gets louder, additional electors may switch to Hillary. Of course, that is what Hillary supporters are counting on.

19. If it gets to that point, that there is a real possibility that we get closer and closer to 270, Hillary will have to make a huge choice. If she stays in the fight and ultimately loses, the anger she generates across the GOP landscape could certainly raise the specter of Trump prosecuting her. He has said she has "been through enough" and "does not want to hurt her." I think if she has the energy to pursue a recount (even passively), if Trump prevails, he will reconsider his current position.  If she wants to prevent the GOP from pressing forward with prosecution, she may want to make it very clear that she has conceded to Trump and it's over. She may want to do this sooner than later. If Hillary cannot convince "Crazy" Kaine to concede, there is no way that Hillary would concede.