Wednesday: Weekly Petroleum Report Due Shortly -- July 30, 2014; Is This Correct? GDP Surges To 4%? Jobs Numbers Disappointing

GDP: is this correct? Surging to 4.0%. Whatever it is, it will be revised next month, but if this 4% is accurate, it's incredible.

The economy in 1Q14 collapsed (their word, not mine), with GDP collapsing somewhere between 2.1% and 3% -- the numbers vary depending which one you believe. From that post:

And then this, from the CNN business analyst: "don't freak out about a minus 3% GDP (rounded)." The CNN business analyst's summary:

The same old story remains: "This recovery is underway, but it's choppy and still very slow."

But here we are, one quarter later and surging to 4%. A lot of oil is going to be needed to sustain that growth.

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Active rigs:

	7/30/2014	07/30/2013	07/30/2012	07/30/2011	07/30/2010
Active Rigs	192	181	206	183	143

RBN Energy: takeaway capacity and disappointing "basis" for natural gas in the Marcellus.

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Bloomberg On The Economy (Today)

Bloomberg is reporting:

U.S. stocks rallied and the dollar strengthened to a four-month high as data showed faster-than-expected economic growth and better earnings from Twitter Inc. to Amgen Inc. Treasuries fell, while commodities rose.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.3 percent to 1,976.85 at 9:32 a.m. in New York, with Twitter shares surging 23 percent. 

Oil and copper rallied more than 0.3 percent. Russian stocks and the ruble advanced as some investors saw U.S. and European Union sanctions as milder than anticipated.

Gross domestic product rose at a 4 percent annualized rate after shrinking 2.1 percent from January through March, Commerce Department figures showed.

“If we look at the data around the earnings season, we think it’s very robust. It’s a very favorable environment for stocks.” 

The big story here: that wasn't even a headline, that 2Q14 GDP surged to 4%. The big story was Twitter.

Twitter? Really?

UC Irvine? Really?

LA Trade Tech School? Really?

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Hey, what were the results of the poll regarding the 2Q14 GDP?

• 2.0% or less: 45%
• 2.1% to 2.5% (inclusive): 31%
• 2.6% to 2.9% (inclusive): 10%
• 3.0%: 7%
• 3.1% or greater: 7%

I had guess about 2.9%. Way off. We'll see what the revision shows next month.

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Reuters Take On The Economy

Reuters is reporting:

U.S. economic growth accelerated more than expected in the second quarter and the decline in output in the prior period was less steep than previously reported, bolstering views for a stronger performance in the last six months of the year.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 4.0 percent annual rate as activity picked up broadly after shrinking at a revised 2.1 percent pace in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday.

That pushed GDP above the economy's potential growth trend, which analysts put somewhere between a 2 percent and 2.5 percent pace. Economists had forecast the economy growing at a 3.0 percent rate in the second quarter after a previously reported 2.9 percent contraction.

A separate report showing private employers added 218,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, a decline from June's hefty gain of 281,000, did little to change perceptions the economy was strengthening.