Debbie Downer Is As Predictable As The Day Is Long

The Dickinson Press is reporting:

North Dakota oil production saw a 6.4 percent jump in July, but the percentage of natural gas that was flared also grew because of mechanical and electrical problems at two gas plants, officials said Friday.

I did not read any more of the article than the opening line noted above.

Let me know if Debbie Downer touched on any of these story lines (previously posted):

• well completions more than double, and there's hardly an increase in flaring
• crude oil production surges by 6.43% month-over-mont, and there's hardly an increase in flaring
• flaring is still incredibly low compared to the high in 2011, when oil production was much lower
• pundits will continue to say one-third of natural gas is flared in North Dakota, which is untrue
• the slight rise in flared natural gas was not due to pace of drilling or completion activity
• almost the entire increase, though minimal, was due to processing plant issues
• infrastructure is improving
• operators are drilling/completing wells where natural gas lines exist
• operators have defined the limits and sweet spots of the Bakken
• operators are defining the limits and sweet spots of the Three Forks
• almost all acreage is now held by production; there is no urgency to place wells where it does not make sense
• almost all acreage is now held by production; there is no urgency to place wells where there are no natural gas gathering systems
• folks over at the TR&E board will now see that operators are less likely to drill on their acreage if natural gas processing systems are not in place
• electrical failures? this to me suggests issues with the grid; and that brings me back to the additional transmission lines that need to be put in place, including the one going through the Killdeer Mountains

With regard to natural gas production:

• June: 28 million cubic feet
• July: 30 million cubic feet
• Increase in natural gas production, month-over-month: 7.41%
• 21 million cubic feet sold (assuming 70% of production was sold; 30% was flared)

According to The Director's Cut: $3.09/MCF = $3,090/million cubic feet x 21 million thousand = $65,000,000 of natural gas sold. Folks can check the math; I generally make a lot of simple math errors.

On the other hand, 27 million bbls of crude oil was sold for almost $100/bbl = $2.7 billion.

If 9 million MCF was flared, that means about $30 million flared.

As I've said before, I can't get my arms around these numbers. So, let's drop some of the zeroes. $2.7 million in crude oil; $30,000 in natural gas. $30,000 in crude oil; $30 in natural gas. I'm sure the math is off but that's good enough for me. It helps put things into perspective.

I assume Debbie Downer uses TR&E as her consultant and fact-checker.