Saturday, July 16, 2016

Motley Fool Update On The Permian -- July 16, 2016

Link here.
With output totaling more than 2 million barrels per day, the Permian is the second largest oil field in the world behind Saudi Arabia's Ghawar field.
That said, it has quite a way to go to catch up given that Ghawar produces 5 million barrels per day, which is more than 5% of global oil output.
The Permian is also believed to be second to Ghawar in recoverable resources.
According to analysis from leading Permian driller Pioneer Natural Resources, the Spraberry/Wolfcamp formations alone could hold 75 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) recoverable resources, or slightly less than half of Ghawar's nearly 160 billion boe. That said, most other analysts peg that number in the 20 billion barrel range.
For perspective, some suggest that the Bakken has 500 billion bbls of OOIP. At a recovery rate of 7%, that works out to 35 billion bbls. 

Six of the oil-producing formations in the Permian, southeast corner of New Mexicoa and huge western half of Texas:
The five largest operators in the Permian, acreage and boepd:
  • Chevron: ~ 2 million net acres, 125,000 
  • OXY: ~ 1.5 million net acres, 255,000
  • Apache: ~ 1.7 million net acres, 171,000
  • Pioneer Natural Resources: ~ 800,000 gross acres, 125,000
  • Concho Resources: ~ 650,000 net acres, 143,000
Back in 2014, in the Bakken:
  • CLR: 1.2 million net acres; 109,000 boepd
Back in 2012, in the Bakken:
  • COP: 600,000 net acres; 26,000 boepd
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A Note To The Granddaughters

The youngest granddaughter, Sophia, age 2, is at home in the pool with her dad.

I am with the oldest granddaughter, Arianna, age 13, at a water polo tournament. In the first game, her team is going to take a lopsided win. At the halfway point, her team leads 10 - 0. [At the end of the third period, with one period left to go, the score is a lopsided 18 - 0.] Arianna is playing on an "older" team where she is not a starter, but in this game she is getting a lot of playing time. [Later, Sunday, July 17, Arianna scored several goals over the weekend. Her team took first place on Sunday. She was awarded a medal; this is her first First Place medal.]

The middle granddaughter is at a soccer tournament in Dallas. This is a big, big deal for her.

There are multiple organizations and opportunities in the US to play soccer. One system is the "major league soccer" "farm system." Dallas has a professional soccer team, the FC Dallas team. They have an "amateur" organization that takes players starting about twelve years of age through at least eighteen years of age, and some will go on to play for FC Dallas as professionals or with other MLS teams.

In early July of every year, there is a "signing" day on which all the young players try out to make one of the teams. Teams are put together based on age. For example, the "05" teams can have players born in 2005 or later, though it is very, very rare to have younger members on any team.

Our middle granddaughter, Olivia, was born in 2006 and thus she is referred to as an "06."  There were difficulties getting the teams "put together" this year due to movement of coaches. The parents work hard to get their sons/daughters with the best teams possible. Olivia's great "06" team was broken up by the parents in an effort for their children to get on the "best" teams possible. It caused a lot of angst among the kids to be separated after playing together for the past two or three years.

Our middle granddaughter was heavily recruited and when it was determined that the local "06" team was not going to work out, an "05" coach -- a highly sought-after coach/team -- recruited Olivia and her closest friend. They "signed" and the two "06's" are the youngest team members (and the only "06's") on the "05" team.

In the first game of the tournament today, Olivia was in her usual (and favorite) position: midfield. She transitions quickly and is very, very good at defense, not quite as good at offense. In that position, she also naturally takes responsibility as "captain" when on the field, because she is in the middle of all the action.

This particular coach does not yell at the kids, telling them what to do, which is somewhat unusual. Instead, he "tells" Olivia what he expects, and then she tells the rest of the team. She is much like a player/coach. And again, she is an '"06" on a team of kids one year older than she is who have been playing together as a team for quite some time. Olivia and her friend are brand new to this team.

Today, the team was losing 1 - 0 and indications were things were not going to get better. The coach called Olivia over to tell her she was going to move to the forward position. Olivia asked the coach if he knew that things would only get worse for the team. The coach replied that she, Olivia, was the only one on her team moving the ball forward. So near the end of the game, Olivia played offense.

Olivia went in, scored a goal, and prevented a loss. The game ended as a tie, 1 - 1.

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For Insomniacs, The British Open Is Wonderful

The Golf Channel (NBC) is televising the entire British Open except for those short periods on Saturday and Sunday when the senior network, NBC, televises several hours during prime time.

Starting Thursday morning, local time, about 1:30 a.m. I tuned into the British open. There is a six-hour time difference. 2:00 a.m. here is 8:00 a.m. in Scotland. I watched the first three rounds from about 2:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m. (Thursday, Friday, Saturday); and, then went back to bed until about 7:30 a.m. to catch the rest of the British Open, until early afternoon.

Absolutely fascinating. The weather is cooperating, although Friday afternoon was a bit rainy and windy and cool and uncomfortable, I assume.

Phil Mickelson led at the end of the first two rounds, eleven under, with only one player anywhere near him.

He finally faltered ever so slightly on the third round and finished in second position on the leaderboard going into the fourth round, Sunday morning. Henrik Stenson, Swedish, is one stroke ahead of Phil. The others are five or six or more strokes behind.

For years I did not care for Mickelson. There was no reason; I just didn't care for him. But over the past twelve months or so, I've really changed my position on Phil. I really appreciate him now. I appreciate him for the fact that he seems to play every weekend; he never seems to have an excuse not to play. He is a workhorse; dependable and persistent and tenacious. It doesn't seem like he's involved in a lot of off-camera drama.

Assuming that The Open championship comes down to Phil vs Henrik, I give the edge to Henrik. I suppose I do that to prepare myself for a great letdown if Phil manages to lose. Henrik's big advantage to Phil: Henrik has never won the Claret Jug; Phil has. Phil says he is playing much more relaxed because he doesn't "need" to win since he's won it once, whereas for Henrik, age 40 (see first comment; I had originally, incorrectly said, 44), this may be his last chance. I don't buy into that. Phil might say that going into the tournament, but if it's down to those two, tied going into the back nine in the final round, Phil will be as competitive as ever.

Phil has a history of going rogue when he starts to fall behind, and that generally devolves into a death spiral. The Troon is absolutely unforgiving and going rogue there is a recipe for disaster. Phil also has a bit of a history of letting his emotions get the better of him -- true for all these athletes -- but Henrik just seems a bit more ... Swedish?

So, all things being equal, I give the edge to Henrik.

By the way, Henrik is "naturally" left-handed but golfs "right-handed"; Mickelson is "naturally" right-handed but golfs "left-handed" according to the commentators. 

[If the weather is great in the morning and then turns ugly in the afternoon, all bets are off. If the weather determines the winner, someone eight strokes behind the leaders now could end up winning.]

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