Another data point coming
from the recent Wood Mackenzie report: only one in five shale basins will succeed.
Bloomberg is reporting:
Only one in five global shale
regions may succeed in producing significant amounts of oil and
gas as countries from China to Argentina seek to emulate the
U.S. boom, said energy consultants Wood Mackenzie Ltd.
Argentina is leading the pack, with plans to drill about
200 shale wells this year, more than three times the number in
China, Andrew Latham, Wood Mackenzie’s vice president for
exploration research, said in an interview in Perth, Western
Australia, where he’s attending an industry conference.
“You hear people talk about lots of different basins,”
Latham said yesterday. “It’s all good, but it’s all potential,
and I’d be surprised if more than one in five plays that gets
drilled ever becomes commercially significant in terms of
production. You only get to be one of the five by drilling.”
Let's put that in perspective:
- Argentina is leading the pack -- 200 shale wells this year. 200. North Dakota will drill 200 wells each month this year.
- China: 60 wells this year. 60. This month "they" will drill more than 70 wells in McKenzie County alone.
- Globally: 400 wells this year. "They drill that many wells in four counties in western North Dakota in two months.
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