This is the summary, but the article holds a huge amount of data regarding decline rates.
In summary, the Bakken still has significant upside. There are still a lot of great areas to drill, and we are just beginning to see upside to the Three Forks' benches. Although many of the best areas have been drilled, continued down spacing in those areas are in process. More importantly, we are starting to see how good northeast McKenzie County is. This may be the best way to play the Williston Basin.
Helis' wells have provided 1000+ MBoe EURs in the middle Bakken and upper Three Forks. This is the reason QEP paid so much for its acreage. These areas also have two and in some areas three additional targets. [There is a reason the "million dollar way" refers to this area as the "Helis Grail."
Kodiak's Smokey ten well test pads should add useful data as to how deeper pay zones with perform. Completion techniques continue to improve increasing recoveries. There are several ways to play McKenzie County. Kodiak may be the best. Its acreage sits on top of the thickest Three Forks' pay zone. It also has additional acreage in northeast McKenzie and southwest Williams.
Halcon has acreage in northeast McKenzie and Fort Berthold. Both areas are very good, but costs are higher on the reservation. QEP is in this area, but not as levered as the other two. Triangle's acreage is to the west of Kodiak's Smokey Prospect. This acreage is not as good as the others listed, but much of its success weighs on how productive this area is.Some takeaways from the article:
- Mike does an outstanding job summarizing and analyzing the Bakken
- over the past six years, well density in the Bakken keeps increasing
- completion techniques keep increasing recoveries
- over the past six years, EURs keep increasing
- the sweet spots in the Bakken are becoming well defined
- even the most basic of data regarding the Bakken is still lacking (here we have the sweet spot highlighted, and there is still inadequate date regarding the thickness of the Three Forks)
- there was only a passing reference to the lower benches of the Three Forks
