He's Back -- Art Berman -- What A Doofus -- May 13, 2018

Updates

December 20, 2021: Art Berman -- US shale operators "swimming in cash."

July 15, 2018: Art Berman famously declared back in 2017 that with the decline in production in the Bakken, it was "the beginning of the end of the Bakken." The Bakken his a boepd production record and another natural gas production record in April, 2018. In May, 2018, the Bakken hit a trifecta: setting all-time production records for a) crude oil; b) natural gas; and, c) boe. That same week oilprice.com suggested "peak oil" theory was alive and well -- it simply had to be re-defined a bit.

Later, 5:27 p.m. CDT: see two first comments. I'm not sure what to make of Berman. My biggest problem: tells investors to short the oil market and then says he will keep his holdings.

Original Post 

From December 8, 2017: "... the beginning of the end of the Bakken." -- Art Berman (or Arthur Berman). A peak oil proponent. "Energy specialist & keynote speaker". Writes for Forbes, I believe. "Shale is not a revolution -- it's a retirement party. Shale plays were not some great new idea. They became important only as more attractive plays were exhausted."

[I've linked articles to Art Berman fairly often. Google "berman" on the blog. I think I've always referred to him as "Art" as he does on his web page, but he often is referred to by "Arthur," so don't do an "Arthur Berman" search. But I degress.]

He's back. [A huge "thank you" to a reader for alerting me to this story.]

And as humorous as ever.

It's over at Rigzone of all places, and a Bloomberg story. Apparently he gave a speech; no one hung around for the Q & A. That speaks volumes. The entire article is worth keeping but I can only post a bit of it. I will archive the rest.

He tells everyone to "short the Permian," but he's keeping his inherited EOG stock. Wow.

The lede:

The geologist who earned the wrath of shale drillers a decade ago with forecasts that natural gas was about to run out is now warning that the Permian Basin has just seven years of proven oil reserves left.

Arthur Berman, a former Amoco scientist who now works as an industry consultant near Houston, said the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico that currently pumps more oil than any other North American field won’t last for long. And the Eagle Ford shale about 350 miles (560 kilometers) away in South Texas isn’t looking good either.

Berman’s grim outlook, based on analyses of reserves and production data from more than a dozen prominent shale drillers, flies in the face predictions from the U.S. Energy Department, Chevron Corp. and others that the Permian is becoming one of the dominant forces in global crude markets.

Bloomberg noted:

Permian output already exceeds that of three-fourths of OPEC members.

One of the problems: Berman talks in generalities, or at least the media only reports in generalities. Specifically, what does Berman see as peak production in the Permian over the next five years?

Disclaimer: Art Berman will eventually be correct on perhaps a point or two, but so far, he has been incredibly wrong, especially his opinion on technology. And yet he says he's an energy specialist. Whatever. Hubbert's peak oil theory, of course, has been disproved. Remember, a theory falls apart as soon as one finds one exception. Having said that, this is not an investment site. Do not make any financial, investment, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read at this blog, or think you may have read at this blog. This blog is for educational and entertainment purposes. Art Berman falls under the latter category.

US Crude Oil Storage -- October 9, 2016

Updates

October 10, 2016: I've always appreciated Art Berman. A reader had this to say:

The use of the word "swindle" in the headline was unfortunate, and I'm almost certain that click bait wasn't Berman's choice...there is no swindle here, just inaccurate reporting of data...the government certainly doesn't have the assets in place to produce exact data on production from every US oil well, exact amount of oil refined by every refinery, and the amount of oil stored in every tank across the entire country for every Friday by the Wednesday of the next week... more likely, the EIA is only giving an estimate in a range, like Census estimates of housing data (which also move markets) which is collected by canvassing Census agents who drive their districts and record observations on their laptops...monthly new home data typically comes up with a 90% confidence figure +/- 15%; oil stats are certainly better but not exact....I would attribute the deterioration of the data to budget cuts sooner than any purposeful fudge on anyone's part...

Berman's piece should be read carefully, as he is exposing a fudge factor that the EIA uses weekly that I've been checking every week for a year...there's no deceit about it, it's there every week on line 13 of the oil balance sheet:https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/table1.pdf.

Since the other numbers which have their accuracy determined by that fudge factor are those that move the markets, that weekly adjustment should be covered by the media, just like imports and inventory, so everyone knows how inaccurate those weekly numbers are...I had to discover it myself when iIcould see that the week to week numbers just didn't add up..

Two additional comments from me:

• the EIA data is also reported almost two months late, including import data -- one would think import data should be "instantaneous" in this day and age; a two-month-delay allows insiders an incredible unfair advantage; and,
• a reminder: the EIA recently made a reporting change. Starting with the Weekly Petroleum Status Report published on October 13, 2016, the U.S. total commercial crude oil inventory weekly data series will no longer include lease stocks.

Later, 9:17 p.m. Central Time: Art Berman has this story at Oilprice, also, with this "headline":
"the billion barrel oil swindle: 80% of US oil reserves are unaccounted for." This is Art's bottom line in this article:

There is a lot more oil in storage than the amount that can be accounted for by domestic production and imports.

In the Forbes article: 

The truth—however improbable—is that inventories are probably much lower than what is reported.

I must be missing something.

Original Post

 

Sometimes you just have to skip to the end of the story. I was aware of the "inventory" problem (and posted one story on it some weeks ago) and was wondering when some major business magazine would provide a more in-depth look. Art Berman has an article in Forbes, sent to me by a reader, thank you.

This is the headline: US (crude oil) storage filling up with unaccounted-for oil. Well, that doesn't sound good for oil bulls?

I started reading the article, and by page 4 or page 5 my mind started drifting. It would help if the article were one full page instead of divided over six pages with a gazillion ads. But by page 4 or page 5 my mind seemed to be filling up with unaccounted-for drivel.

So, I jumped to the last line in the article:

The truth—however improbable—is that inventories are probably much lower than what is reported.

There are two words in that last sentence to note: everyone catches the "lower," but the interesting word is "much."

I will have to go back and re-read the entire article.

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The US Shale Cartel

The reader also sent another Forbes link. I have not read the story yet. But anyone calling the US shale industry a "cartel" is using the word loosely. And incorrectly. And it sends the wrong message.

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Price Of Electricity Might Dip

First Time In 14 Years

Natural Gas

Those three phrases pretty much sum up the entire article. From Denver Business Journal.

That's the fourth or fifth story the same reader sent me over the past couple of days. Whew! Finally caught up.

From the article:

During the first six months of 2016, residential electricity prices nationwide averaged 12.4 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh), or 0.7 percent less than the first half of 2015, the EIA said in its latest Today in Energy brief.

The article does not mention how wind and solar put upward pressure on prices. 

For The Archives -- The Beginning Of The End For The Bakken -- Art Berman -- August 11, 2017

Updates

February 15, 2019: new production record set in North Dakota.  From The Bismarck Tribune:

North Dakota oil operators took advantage of mild December weather and produced a record 1.4 million barrels per day that month, according to the Department of Mineral Resources.

While oil production grew nearly 2 percent, natural gas production jumped 5 percent in December to a record 2.65 billion cubic feet per day, according to the preliminary figures.

The previous high, 1.39 million barrels per day, was set in October.

July 15, 2018: I provide updates for this story at this post.

Original Post

For the archives.

I recall seeing this article when it was first posted some time ago, but elected not to post it. A reader recently referenced it so I thought it best to post the link for archival purposes.

This is Art Berman suggesting that data in December, 2016, suggested that we were seeing the "beginning of the end" for the Bakken. The article begins:

It’s the beginning of the end for the Bakken Shale play.

The decline in Bakken oil production that started in January 2015 is probably not reversible. New well performance has deteriorated, gas-oil ratios have increased and water cuts are rising. Much of the reservoir energy from gas expansion is depleted and decline rates should accelerate. More drilling may increase daily output for awhile but won’t resolve the underlying problem of poorer well performance and declining per-well reserves.

December 2016 production fell 92,000 barrels per day (b/d)–a whopping 9% single-month drop. Over the past two years, output has fallen 285,000 b/d (23%). This was despite an increase in the number of producing wells that reached an all-time high of 13,520 in November. That number fell by 183 wells in December.

Perhaps he mentioned it, but if so, I missed it:

• an emphasis that this was December data (winters can be tough in North Dakota); and,
• the Saudi surge had resulted in huge drop in price of WTI

I think the article or variations of the article have appeared elsewhere.

Art Berman is a proponent of peak oil.

The NDIC Director's Cut is scheduled to come out today. It will be interesting to see where the Bakken is today. [Update: June data released in the Director's Cut today.]

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Echo Beach

Such a depressing story (the Art Berman story above). Time for some music. Art Berman caught in his own echo chamber?

Echo Beach, Martha and the Muffins
Why the Muffins, you ask? Probably because all the animal and insect names had been taken. 

Connecting Three Dots, But No Analysis, No Explanation -- And I Don't Have Anything Else To Say About This Right Now -- August 22, 2018

Connecting three dots, but no explanation. I have no explanation for this.

The first dot: American consumers have only so much money to spend each week. That's a fact. How much they have from week to week, from month to month, from year to year, varies, but it is a fact (and a dot) that American consumers have only so much money to spend each week. Some of that money is spent on mortgage/rent; some on food; some on public transportation; some on gasoline; some on college expenses; some on casinos; some at the mall; some at the Dollar Store, but Americans only have so much money to spend each week.

The second dot, from this link:

The third dot:

Economy: the retail numbers being reported this week are simply sensational ....

Two questions:

• do all three dots connect? and, if so,
• why?

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Background

Gasoline demand: yesterday afternoon -- US EIA says US Gulf Coast gasoline stocks build as refining holds above historic norms. Refiners have been operating at or near 98.1% capacity for several weeks now.

Gasoline demand: is a red herring, 2016 --- Forbes -- from the columnist who forecast the death of the Bakken, Art Berman. 

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Analysis

As far as I can tell, no one has done a serious analysis of why gasoline demand is lagging this year compared to last year.

Any explanation has to take into consideration that this is a recent phenomenon. At wore, it's a 12-month shift; at best it's a six-month shift. 

Long-term trends in driving habits, buying habits, etc, can't explain a sudden change like this. I also don't buy any argument in which arbitragers are "playing" the game differently this year. The EIA data is straightforward: the EIA is simply tabulating reports from all US refineries: how much gasoline did each refinery deliver. (But this could be the explanation -- see below.)

That's why I rule out two things immediately as possible explanations for the decrease in gasoline demand year-over-year:

• "the Amazon effect" -- this is a long-term trend; this did not happen "overnight"
• EVs -- another long-term trend; can't explain a year-over-year change in gasoline demand that we are seeing now

Other possibilities:

• Art Berman would suggest it has to do with exports of gasoline -- see the linked Forbes article above
• thirty-party storage facilities (like those owned by the Koch Bros?) are ordering less gasoline for storage (either their tanks are filled, or they don't want to be hold gasoline in storage that might fall further in price)

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Misleading

In the Forbes article above, Art Berman argues "gasoline demand" is a "red herring" because of gasoline export data. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't.

But he uses a very, very misleading chart to try to prove his point.

A quick glance at this chart suggests that the US exports way more gasoline than it produces (impossible, of course); and that the US exports way more gasoline than it actually consumes domestically (absurd).

Look at that graph and what I just said jumps out at you.

You have to read the very, very small print (and on the computer screen it's even more difficult): the left x-axis, measure in 10s of thousands, is "total product supplied and sales." Meanwhile the x-axis on the right is measured in hundreds.

On the left, the chart maxes out at 11,000,000 bbls; on the right, it maxes out at 600 bbls (and, in fact, the green line -- exports -- only goes to 400,000 bbls --- 400,000 / 10,000,000 = 4%.

I assume Art Berman would suggest that the drop in US gasoline demand in the summer of 2018 is due to a decrease in US gasoline exports.

Let's check, from the EIA, this data:

Nope. Exports are increasing. Significantly. To meet that demand, refiners have to maximize operating capacity. And they have to "deliver" on that "gasoline demand." The EIA "gasoline demand" data includes gasoline that will be exported.

So, in fact, domestic consumption (demand) is even worse than the "gasoline demand" graph suggests.

If, in fact, that domestic US gasoline demand is lower year-over-year, I have some thoughts but will not post those thoughts for now. But I think the "three dots" explain a lot.

"Mr Berman, Meet Mr CVX. Mr CVX, Meet Mr Berman. -- December 8, 2017

From August 11, 2017:

This is Art Berman suggesting that data in December, 2016, suggested that we were seeing the "beginning of the end" for the Bakken. The article begins:

It’s the beginning of the end for the Bakken Shale play.

The decline in Bakken oil production that started in January 2015 is probably not reversible. New well performance has deteriorated, gas-oil ratios have increased and water cuts are rising. Much of the reservoir energy from gas expansion is depleted and decline rates should accelerate. More drilling may increase daily output for awhile but won’t resolve the underlying problem of poorer well performance and declining per-well reserves.

December 2016 production fell 92,000 barrels per day (b/d)–a whopping 9% single-month drop. Over the past two years, output has fallen 285,000 b/d (23%). This was despite an increase in the number of producing wells that reached an all-time high of 13,520 in November. That number fell by 183 wells in December.

Source: NDIC.

From November 30, 2017:

"Shale is not a revolution -- it's a retirement party. Shale plays were not some great new idea. They became important only as more attractive plays were exhausted." -- Art Berman.

Re-posting: where will ChevronTexaco deploy its CAPEX in 2018?

In particular, Chevron is concentrating on increasing its investment in shale as it strives to boost its U.S. shale production next year. For 2018, the company intends to spend $4.3 billion in shale – up 70% year over year – the lion's share (or $3.3 billion) going to the lucrative Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico alone.

The remaining $1 billion has been set aside for other shale investments.

Goodnight Moon, Shivaree

"Shale's Best Days Are Behind Us" -- Art Berman -- May 15, 2018

I do not know what Art Berman means when he says, "shale's best days are behind us."

Remember, the shale revolution -- and Berman says there was no revolution -- began in 2007.

This year, that revolution -- or whatever you want to call it -- barely a decade old, will result in US shale output rising to a record 7.18 million bbls. The EIA says that will happen in June, next month, 2018.

I don't know if Art Berman visited Williston in 2010, and I don't know if he has been in the Permian this year. I assume he has. From what I saw and what I'm reading, the activity in the Permian is now exceeding what we saw during the Bakken boom. The folks at The Atlantic Monthly need to visit the Permian. Assuming they can find a place to stay for a few days.

From the linked article:

U.S. shale production is expected to rise by about 145,000 barrels per day to a record 7.18 million bpd in June, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Monday.
A majority of the increase is expected to come from the Permian basin, the biggest U.S. oil patch, where output is expected to climb 78,000 bpd to a fresh record of 3.28 million bpd.

Soaring Permian crude production has already outpaced pipeline takeaway capacity, depressing prices in the region and leaving traders scrambling for alternatives to get crude to market.

Bakken output is expected to rise 20,000 bpd to 1.24 million bpd, the highest since June 2015, while Eagle Ford production is set to rise 33,000 bpd to 1.39 million bpd, the highest since February 2016. [And this is with only 60 active rigs -- Baker Hughes says 57 -- compared to 83 rigs in 2015.]

Production in the United States has surged thanks to the shale boom, helping send U.S. crude futures' discount to international benchmark Brent crude futures to the widest in six months.

Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas production was projected to increase to a record 68.1 billion cubic feet per day in June. That would be up almost 1.1 bcfd over the May forecast and would be the fifth monthly increase in a row.

A year ago in June output was just 56.4 bcfd.

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COP To Divest Assets In the North Sea

Things are moving so quickly and there is so much going on, it is impossible for me to remember what I have posted and what I have not posted. I do not recall having posted this earlier, but it sounds familiar. Whatever.

From oilprice.com:

ConocoPhillips is focusing on its U.S. shale business and is getting ready to sell some or all of its North Sea assets that could fetch US$2 billion.

ConocoPhillips—which had tried to sell some of its North Sea assets in 2014 but failed—has not yet launched a sales process or appointed banks, according to Reuters’ sources.

Executives from the U.S. oil company, however, are said to have recently met and spoken with several operators in the North Sea and with bankers to “gauge the appetite for the sale”, one of the sources told Reuters.

ConocoPhillips has been operating in the UK and Norwegian parts of the North Sea for more than 50 years.

In the UK, ConocoPhillips’s total production in 2017 stood at 75,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).

The Dow is down 200 points, almost 1%. COP is up 0.7%, flirting with a 52-week high, and paying a dividend of 1.64%.  COP was paying 74 cents/share in 2015, and then abruptly cut it to 25 cents/share that same year.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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The Only Question: Which Singer To Feature With This Song

Nope: No Question

Faded Love, Patsy Cline

From wiki:

Due to the airplane crash that ended Cline's life, her version was never released on a studio album. Instead, it was belatedly released on Patsy Cline's Greatest Hits, a compilation album in 1967. Cline's version was originally intended to be the title cut for a planned album and was made at what turned out to be the last recording session before her death.

Shout Out To Art Berman And Jane Nielson: Three All-Time Records Set In The Bakken -- September 14, 2018

Director's Cut -- July, 2018 Data

Shout-out to Art Berman and Jane Nielson.

Halloween just around the corner?


Sea of Heartbreak, Zombina and the Skeletones

Link here: for links to NDIC and the Director's Cuts. And to Art Berman's "shale is a retirement party."

Disclaimer: the Director's Cut summary that I try to do every month is done very, very quickly. There will be typographical and/or factual errors. That's why I have the link. If this information is important to you, go to the link.

Natural gas: the biggest natural gas field -- remember, we're talking about a natural gas field -- in the Mediterranean is producing 2 billion cfpd (the Zohr gas field here). Meanwhile, North Dakota, an oily play for all intents and purposes, where natural gas is a hassle, a danger, and a by-product, is producing 2.4 billion cfpd (assuming I'm doing the math right - which is a big assumption).

Red Queen? Hardly: The drilling rig count was up three from June to July, decreased five from July to August, and is currently up four from August to today.

Flaring: I was under the impression that the NDIC was going to stomp on operators this month if they didn't get the flaring issue under control. Flaring worsened, see below. And, yet, the state allowed a significant increase in the number of wells to be completed.

The number is: 1,269,366 bbls/day

• Crude oil: 1,269,366
• Natural gas: 2,400,174 MCF/day = 399,962 boepd
• Total: 1,669,328 boepd
• Previous record (last month): 1,608,797
• Previous record (previous month): 1,632,024 boepd
• Previous record (previous, previous month): 1,598,948 boepd

Crude oil production:

• July, 2018: 1,269,366 bbls/day
• June, 2018: 1,227,320 bbls/day
• May, 2018:  1,246,355 bbls/day (all-time high was 1,227,483 bbls/day back in December, 2014)
• Delta, month-over-month: + 42,046 bbls; UP 3.4% month-over-month

Natural gas production:

• July, 2018: 2,400,174 MCF/day (399,962 boepd) -- another new all-time record
• June, 2018: 2,300,103 MCF/day (383,287 boepd) -- string of new records broken
• May, 2018: 2,315,391 MCF/day (385,834 boepd) -- a new all-time record
• April, 2018: 2,242,093 MCF/day (374,000 boepd) -- record at the time
• March, 2018: 2,119,751 MCF/day (353,000K boepd) -- record at the time

Well Completions:

• July, completions, preliminary: 106
• June, completions, preliminary: 63 (preliminary): actual - 70 (final)
• May, completions, preliminary: 42 (preliminary); actual -- 72 (final)
• April, completions, preliminary: 69 (preliminary); actual --> 86 (final)
• March completions: 75
• February completions: 74
• January completions: 65

DUCs + inactive wells:

• July, 2018, DUCs and inactive wells: 2,429
• DUCs, waiting on completion: 943, down 50 from the end of June to the end of July
• inactive well count: 1,486, up 28 during same time period
• June, 2018, DUCs and inactive wells: 2,451
• May, 2018, DUCs and inactive wells: 2,451
• see "DUC commentary," dated June 29, 2018 

Flaring:

• statewide: 82% (down 1% from last month)
• statewide, Bakken: 84% (unchanged from last month)
• FBIR Bakken: 76% (down 3% from last month) -- federal; atrocious, compared to state
• ND goal: 88% capture; increasing to 91% beginning November 1, 2020

Missing comment of interest:

• Anything new about flaring?

Just Too Much Going On But I Have To Take Advantage Of This Wonderful Weather -- Going Biking

But before going, we haven't looked in on Art Berman lately. What's he saying now? This is from his most recent article over at his site: the US over-supply of oil is ending.

He and I live in a different universe. It appears he forgets that the majors were still drilling "attractive off-shore plays" when small independents broke the code for fracking tight oil plays.

Having said that, in the column linked above, Berman suggests this:

If "comparative inventory" continues to fall at the 9-month average of 4 mmb/week, oil prices may be approximately $67 per barrel by the end of December. If C.I. falls at the 8 mmb/week average since late September, WTI could approach levels not seen since before the price collapse in late 2014.

It's hard to see WTI falling below $50, but if WTI trends toward $70 by the end of next month (December, 2017), we will be "off to the races." Seventy-dollar oil in 2018 is as good as $100-oil in 2014. It's all about margins and volumes sold. At $100-oil, the price of gasoline could discourage consumption in the US.

More:

The causes of the U.S. inventory drawdown are clear: increased exports of crude oil and greater domestic consumption. (What about decreased imports from OPEC?)

Crude oil exports for the first half of 2017 averaged 766 mmb/d but rose to 1.8 mmb/d in September and October. Increased exports now average more than 12 mmb/week and contribute substantially to reduced inventory levels.

Higher export levels correlate with the increased spread between Brent and WTI prices that began in late July. Traders can sell U.S. crude oil overseas at less than international prices but at levels higher than domestic pricing allows. Record exports of 2.13 mmb/d occurred during the week ending October 27.

More:

Tight oil production levels, crude oil quality and U.S. refinery blending needs are behind the WTI discount to Brent price. Most U.S. refineries are designed for international grades of oil like Brent which is heavier and contains more sulfur than WTI (think Madison and Red River from North Dakota).

The U.S. has had a surplus of light sweet oil since the tight oil boom began, and the Brent-WTI spread reached almost $30/barrel in September 2011 as a result

Berman is concerned that declining US crude oil inventories will drive up the price of oil (above $70); increase the price of gasoline by a dollar/gallon; and lead to an economic downturn. In fact, US shale can respond quickly to changes in the price of WTI. If we trend toward $70 (which forecasts that we could go above $70) there is no doubt in my mind that operators in the Permian and the Bakken could respond with an increase of more than 3 million bbls/day.

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So, How's Justin Trudeau Doing?

From Economic Times:

India is now home to the world’s eighth-biggest stock market, overtaking Canada for the first time in almost a decade. The score: India $2.29 trillion, Canada $2.28 trillion. 

Mumbai’s total stock market capitalization hasn’t exceeded Toronto’s since Jan. 21, 2008, when the S&P BSE Sensex plunged as concern grew that a global financial crisis was taking hold. 

Since then, India’s market swelled by $800 billion as investors flocked to a nation where the government boosted consumption through a job-guarantee plan, streamlined through a job-guarantee plan, streamlined the indirect-tax system and opened more industries to foreigners.

"The Beginning Of The End Of The Bakken" -- Art Berman -- What A Doofus -- Bakken Setting New Records -- June 16, 2018

Re-posting:

From The Bismarck Tribune:

North Dakota oil production jumped 5.4 percent in April to more than 1.2 million barrels per day, coming in just shy of the state’s record.

Director of Mineral Resources Lynn Helms called it a big surprise to see production levels within 2,500 barrels of the all-time high of nearly 1.23 million barrels per day.

“We were not expecting that kind of a surge until late May, early June,” Helms said Friday while discussing the preliminary figures.

Natural gas production increased 7.4 percent in April, setting another record at more than 2.24 billion cubic feet per day.

Now, flashback to December 8, 2017 -- "The beginning of the end of the Bakken." -- Art Berman.

What a doofus.

The Bakken is setting new records despite 2,000 wells drilled to depth and not producing (DUCs and shut-ins for operational reasons).

The EIA Monthly Petroleum Drilling Productivity Report -- The "Dashboards" -- January, 2021, Data

From a reader who follows this much more closely than I do and understands it better than both Art Berman and me, had this to say:  base production in North Dakota has fully recovered after a significant reduction (as in managing assets). Link here (note, a PDF will download):

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/January_2021_Supplement.pdf

See this post: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2021/01/rigs-ducs-and-managing-assets-bakken.html.

The same reader also made a comment at the most recent site regarding the Art Berman article addressing the same subject:

So today's report indicated DUCs were down by 145 to 7,298....902 of those were in Appalachia or the Haynesville, so most of the rest were oil wells...

But here's the kicker: there were 518 completions in December; 118 gas and 400 oil...so that article's benchmark to hold oil production steady is already being met...

So, "Op-Ed  Or Fact" is already a moot question... 

EIA dashboards:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

For the December, 2020, "dashboards," see this post.

This was the December, 2020, dashboard for the Bakken:

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Rigs, DUCs, and Managing Assets

This is the most current "dashboard" for the Bakken.  I will post the Permian and Eagle Ford dashboards later and at a stand-alone post. 

I'm traveling; and,  limited resources (battery and time).

The EIA monthly drilling productivity report for the Bakken:

It should be noted that February is the worst month for drilling and fracking in the Bakken. Actually, it's the worst month for doing anything in the Bakken, although First Lutheran Church hosts its annual Lutefisk dinner every February. The church will probably do it differently this year but my hunch is that lutefisk pretty much neutralizes "cold" viruses.

For The Archives -- EOG, The Permian, Break-Even Prices -- April 23, 2017

I've been saying this for quite some time, most recently March 14, 2017: the prices that folks are paying for mineral rights in the Permian don't make sense. Everybody more knowledgeable than I am and with a whole lot of experience tell me I'm wrong. Today I stumbled across this article while following up another set of links. I had not seen this article before. It's from Art Berman (consider the source) back on December 18, 2015.

Right or wrong, the fact that the price of oil is trending back toward $50 has to be a bit concerning for companies who bought into the Permian during the $40,000 / acre buying frenzy and folks thought oil was trending back toward $70.

For the archives, from the Art Berman article linked above:

Less than 2 percent of Permian basin tight oil wells are commercial at $30 per barrel oil prices.

Sorry about that. I know that many believe that U.S. shale and tight oil plays are commercial even at current low oil prices but data on the Permian basin and Bakken plays simply does not support that belief.

To make matters worse, Pioneer and EOG have made outrageous claims about Permian basin reserves in their 3rd quarter 2015 earnings reports that no sensible person should believe. Statements like these simply add to the mistaken idea that tight oil plays get a pass on the laws of physics and economics and that somehow the USA is going to beat Saudi Arabia as the low-cost “swing producer” of the world. I wish that were true but trust me–based on data, that’s not going to happen.

The Permian basin is one of the oldest producing areas in the United States. It has been thoroughly drilled and is in a hyper-mature phase of development. The Spraberry, Wolfcamp and Bone Springs plays that Pioneer and EOG are pursuing (Figure 1) are really secondary recovery projects in which horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have replaced water and CO2 injection methods used in the past. Few new reserves should be expected. Most of the claims that these companies make are really about higher recovery efficiency of existing reserves.

It should be noted that his lede begins with "$30-oil" where it was some years ago but oil is now back up to $50, so "stuff has changed."

This link came when following the first link and then the second link below (previously posted):

• EOG's monster well in the Permian -- Filloon, April 23, 2017
• EOG's monster well in the Permian -- Motley Fool, April 12, 2017

WTI Moving Up A Bit; Rigs In North Dakota Steady At 62 -- August 23, 2018

Bakken sale: US Energy Corp will will acquire Bakken assets for almost $20 million. For the archives; relatively inconsequential story but gives folks an idea of activity in the Bakken and what top tier acreage is selling for. Link here:

• buyer: US Energy Corp
• seller: APEG, an affiliate of APEG Energy II, LP
• deal: 67 wells; 1.1 million boe of proved reserves
• 400 boepd production 
• 1,600 net acres
• $17,800,000 / 1600 = $11,000 / acre
• will double US Energy Corp's existing production base
• website; I believe US Energy Corp is a non-operator in the Bakken; will check later 
• not previously mentioned over at "Bakken operators"

Gasoline demand: yesterday afternoon -- US EIA says US Gulf Coast gasoline stocks build as refining holds above historic norms. Refiners have been operating at or near 98.1% capacity for several weeks now.

Gasoline demand: is a red herring, 2016 --- Forbes -- from the columnist who forecast the death of the Bakken, Art Berman. I'm beginning to think Art Berman is a red herring.

BABA: not ABBA. Up 3% in pre-market trading on 61% surge in revenues y/y.  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Poll, results in which we asked about corporate earnings every six months instead of quarterly:

• yes: 55%
• no: 45%
• Comment: I thought it would be closer to 10%, yes; 90% no. I am quite surprised.

***************************************

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- 

Thursday, August 23, 2018

• 34231, drl, CPEUSC, CPEUSC Elena 8-22-15-157N-100W TFH, Marmon,
• 33230, 1,966, CLR, Vardon 4-14H, Siverston, 61 stages; 20 million lbs, t3/18; cum 132K 6/18; the Vardon wells are tracked here;
• 24620, SI/NC, MRO, Coburn USA 41-30TFH, Reunion Bay,

Active rigs;

$67.98↑	8/23/2018	08/23/2017	08/23/2016	08/23/2015	08/23/2014
Active Rigs	62	53	31	76	192

RBN Energy: the crude hub at Cushing: what was, what is, and will will be.

The crude oil storage and distribution hub in the small town of Cushing, OK, is a marvel. With more than 90 MMbbl of tankage, 3.7 MMb/d of incoming pipeline capacity and 3.1 MMb/d of outbound pipes, Cushing’s nickname — “Pipeline Crossroads of the World” — is spot-on, not hyperbole. However, like a lot of other U.S. energy infrastructure in the Shale Era, Cushing’s role has been in flux. Permian oil production has been surging, the ban on U.S. oil exports is a fading memory, and the Gulf Coast — not Cushing — is where most U.S. crude production wants to go, for its concentration of refineries and export docks. That is not to say that Cushing is no longer important. Far from it. Today, we begin a blog series on how Cushing’s role has been morphing and why the Sooner State trading hub still provides critical support to producers, midstream companies and refineries alike.

**********************************

Cinderella

 

Notes From All Over -- The Snarky Edition -- March 24, 2022

Not in the mood:

• 1952: "I have a headache."
• 2022: "I tested positive for Covid-19 (again)."

Biden fires Dr Oz. LOL. Why did it take so long? Bye, Felicia.

NY Times wordle: solved on the third line; three letter clues.

Art Berman's tweet needs to be fact-checked. See comments at this link. Apparently posted by Art Berman with no comment.

All for now.

DUCs Won't Save US Oil Production -- Op-Ed Or Fact? -- Art Berman Via Forbes Via HellenicShippingNews -- January 18, 2021

From hellenicshippingnews, four hours ago:

U.S. oil production has fallen more than 2 million barrels per day since March 2020. Many reasonably expect that DUCs (drilled uncompleted wells) provide a solution to output falling further.

They won’t.

There are about 5,800 DUCs in the main U.S. tight oil plays. These are already drilled and could be converted into producing wells for the cost of completion which is about half the total well cost.

Most DUCs, however, are uncompleted for a reason namely, that their owners don’t believe that their performance will be as good as wells that they chose to complete instead.

Even assuming similar performance, the larger problem is that large numbers of DUCs are already being completed and official EIA 914 production remains less than 10.5 mmb/d.

North Dakota publishes monthly data on DUCs that can be compared with active, producing wells.

See linked article for more and for graphics. 

With regard to the article: if only it were that simple.

Tag: Director's Cut. North Dakota production --

• March, 2020: 1,428,273 bopd; DUCs: 975; rig count: 52 rigs;
• November 2021: 1,224,540 bopd (preliminary); DUCs: 710; 11 rigs;

Note: Friday, May 15, 2020, the number of active rigs in North Dakota: 12.

Delta:

• November, 2021 / March, 2020, crude oil production: down 14%
• November, 2021 / March, 2020, active rigs: down 80%
• November, 2021 / March, 2020, DUCs: down 27%; 

And after all that, I don't think it's a matter of "DUCs" saving the shale industry. As Art Berman himself said, the industry is made of myriad details: DUCs are just one component, albeit a huge component. I suppose it's like grain in silos. That grain may or may not save a farmer from bankruptcy -- too many other factors to consider -- but that grain in the silo does provide some life support. All things being equal, a farmer would appreciate grain in a silo rather than no grain in the silo.

Absolutely Staggering: New Petroleum / Natural Gas Records Being Set By The US -- October 31, 2018

Fast and furious: I was out and about all day so I am behind in my blogging. Now with Halloween this evening, I will be delayed even further. There is a lot of stuff to blog so it's going to be a long, long night.

Unedited (okay, maybe just a little): I was going to post a similar story as the one below but when I got home I saw that a reader had already done it (the story) for me. Read this slowly; let it sink in; think about what this means (there will be a short quiz following):

• the US has (again) broken records for oil and gas production, adding over 0.4 million bopd last month to break past 11.3 million bopd based on today's 914 monthly report (covering August)
• Texas, GOM, ND, CO, OK, AK, WY, NM all up strongly
• natural gas is also setting new records, with over 2 BCF/d of added production. Overall gas with second month over 100 BCF/d. Lower 48 approaching 95 BCFd. 

News article: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-production/us-crude-output-jumps-to-record-1135-million-bpd-in-august-eia-idUSKCN1N52FH.

EIA report: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/.

Interestingly, Rystad had predicted a massive increase this month, in excess of the STEO prediction. https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/US-oil-set-to-beat-EIAs-forecast-again-11.15-million-bpd-is-low-case-for-August/. 

They were the only analysts to stick up for EIA last fall, when people like Harold Hamm and Mark Papa, let alone the shale haters, were all criticizing EIA as too growth optimistic. But even Rystad underestimated how massive the month would be. We are now more than 2.1 million bopd higher in production than exactly one year ago. So much for peak oil. Amusingly, the peak oilers were dissing Rystad just a day ago: http://peakoilbarrel.com/brazil-reserves-and-production-update-1h2018/#comment-656450.

Oh...and even the Gulf of Mexico is setting records. Broke past 1.8 million bopd last month for first time. Latest EIA report is now over 1.9 million bopd.

Maybe Snopes can write an article "fact checking" the peak oilers?

Comments:

I remember very well those comments by Harold Hamm, and particularly Mark Papa, under-estimating what the Bakken was going to do. It is truly amazing. I admit it: I was swayed by Mark Papa -- after all, he's considered one of the smartest men alive when it comes to the Bakken.

Snopes? LOL.

Also, of course, my monthly memos to Art Berman and Jane Nielson.

This still remains one of my all-time favorite posts, from December 8, 2018 --

From November 30, 2017:

"Shale is not a revolution -- it's a retirement party. Shale plays were not some great new idea. They became important only as more attractive plays were exhausted." -- Art Berman.

With regard to Mark Papa, here's the post from March 11, 2018. 

In the note sent by the reader it was noted:

• Texas, GOM, ND, CO, OK, AK, WY, NM all up strongly

If Proposition 112 in Colorado passes, one can remove that state from the list above. Wow, if the voters pass that proposition it will truly be a Grimm fairy tale for that state, every bit as unfortunate as the "golden goose" story.

Here We Go Again -- May 10, 2019

This post is not quite "ready-for-prime-time." I'm starting to feel the pressure of time. In a few minutes I need to stop by the grocer to pick up donuts to bring to my Firestone folks. Wow, they do a great job on our cars. More on that later. Then I need to drive the oldest granddaughter to school. She normally takes the bus but today she has a lot of "stuff" to bring to school. And then errands. Mother's Day is Sunday. 

Link here -- "the shale boom is about to go bust."

Consider the source. This linked site is a "peak oil" site.

Biggest problem with the article: no time line as to when "shale" will go bust. This year, next year, five years from now, 35 years from now? The article does not say. As least as far as I could tell.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Note: I would never, never recommend anyone invest in oil companies. However, oil companies are providing great jobs for millions of workers; the CEOs and directors are doing very, very well; mineral owners love their "oil checks." In other words, investors may or may not do well, but a lot of people working in the industry are actually doing quite well.

Again: I am not convinced the average investor can make money investing in oil. But talking about profits and losses as ways to evaluate investment opportunities went out the window with Amazon, Tesla, GM, and any number of other publicly traded companies. 

Second biggest problem with the article: opinions interspersed with facts -- and impossible to separate the two (facts/opinions). I do the same thing: intersperse facts with opinions.

Third biggest problem: a lot of the statements -- which read like facts, but cannot possibly be -- are completely wrong. The analysts seem to misunderstand "shale."

At some point, common sense suggests we will see peak production in "shale" but it will be a chicken and egg question: will "shale" end even as the world needs more oil, or will the world simply need less oil from shale.

Right now, production from "shale" basins is "advancing" by any metric one wants to measure.

Chevron, OXY, Anadarko, Warren Buffett are probably not investing for the short term.

Be that as it may, here's the headline.

Considering that the "shale boom" is about to go bust, oil prices certainly aren't going anywhere. "We" came close to seeing WTI drop below $60. US crude oil inventories are off the charts -- now over 460 million bbls in storage, when historically, 350 million bbls would have been more than enough, and 300 million bbls is what we generally had in storage. Crude oil supply -- at about 30 days -- is near a(n) historic high, link here.Gasoline supply used to be 18 - 21 days; now it's routinely 28 days, a full week longer, link here. In fact, this post needs to be updated.

For more, see Art Berman's School of Peak Oil.

Meanwhile, Argentina never got the memo from Art Berman, Nick Cunningham et al. Due to its shale oil and natural gas production, mostly in Vaca Muerta, it now has such a glut of oil and natural gas, it has to cut back production until processing facilities and storage facilities can be put in place to handle all the production. This is absolutely incredible. 

**************************

Cheap Oil

From oilprice.com:

U.S. shale oil—which just four years ago was the world’s second most expensive oil resource—is now the second cheapest source of new oil supply globally, just behind the giant onshore oil fields in the Middle East, Rystad Energy said on Thursday.

North America’s tight oil has reduced costs over the past four-five years and has proven to be a competitive source of oil supply even when oil prices are not very high, according to the energy research firm.

Rystad Energy estimates in its latest cost of supply curve update that the average Brent Crude breakeven price for tight oil is now US$46 a barrel, just four dollars above the average $42 per barrel breakeven oil price for the giant onshore fields in Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries.

US oil: second least expensive oil in the world. In. The. World. But California prefers Saudi oil.

This story will be re-posted. Many, many talking points.

*****************************

Meanwhile ... Indications The Boom Is Over

Schlumberger subsidiary cuts jobs in the Permian. 

Product & Logistics Services LLC (P&LS), a subsidiary of Schlumberger Limited, is ceasing operations at its facility in the Permian Basin, resulting in layoffs of 124 employees, according to a letter sent this week to the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC).

The trucking company said it would be “closing employee-serviced operations out of Monahans, Texas, and surrounding areas.” Monahans has been dubbed ‘the center of the Permian Basin.’

Kearl Oil Sands -- Canada

Bloomberg is reporting that Exxon Mobil is beginning production at Kearl Oil Sands:

Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s largest company by market value, began production at its Kearl oil sands project in Alberta, which is projected to produce 4.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the next 40 years. 

The project will produce 110,000 barrels per day later this year and that’s expected to double by late 2015, the company said in a statement. The Kearl site is 46 miles (75 km) northeast of Fort McMurray, Alberta, and is operated by Imperial Oil Ltd., which is 70 percent owned by Exxon Mobil. 

Data points:

• C$13 billion
• will ship oil to Imperial / XOM refineries to offset low crude oil prices
• Imperial is looking at rail to ship this oil due to pipeline constraints in western Canada

Coincidentally, in an article published at The Oil Drum the same day as the above story, it was noted that the Kearl Oil Sands is not affected by the Keystone XL: 

Canada is expected to reach a production total of 4 mbd by the end of the year, with the largest impact coming from the Kearl Oil Sands production anticipated to bring 110 kbd to market in the third quarter. (This is not dependent on the Keystone pipeline.) 

The (Calgary) Globe and Mail also has a nice article on the Kearls Oil Sands:

Even Imperial reported lower earnings in this first quarter compared to 2012, in part because of discounted prices for its Cold Lake bitumen. Imperial’s earnings in the first quarter of 2013 were $798-million, down 21 per cent or $217-million from the first quarter of 2012. The company said the lower earnings “were primarily attributable to the impacts of lower liquids realizations of $270-million, higher refinery and Syncrude maintenance effects of $165-million and higher Kearl production readiness expenditures.”

One analyst said the Kearl mining project will be a less important factor in pricing and the differential than the opening of Enbridge’s Flanagan South expansion, which is slated to come on stream in 2014. The pipeline link will help to get heavy oil to markets on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

**************************

So, how are the pipeline opponents doing? They seem to be winning the verbal debate. The key words in that preceding sentence: "seem" and "verbal."

The Calgary Herald is reporting: 

“Psst. Big Oil. We’re winning …”

Psst, NIMBY environmentalists: yes, sort of, but no, not really.

The above quote was tweeted by Vancouver green activist Tzeporah Berman this week after B.C. NDP Leader Adrian Dix said he will oppose expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, and follows a series of recent “wins” for foes of new oil pipelines in North America.

From lengthy delays in reviews for Keystone XL and Northern Gateway to the negative publicity over crude oil pipeline ruptures from Alberta to Arkansas, the opposition appears to be winning the battle for media headlines this spring.

Gloating, however, might be premature.

Berman isn’t simply some yahoo on Twitter. She has legitimate credentials as a former co-director of the climate unit at Greenpeace International and a founder of ForestEthics, but she is overstating the impact of pipeline protests.

Actually she is a yahoo. These NIMBY activists are one-trick ponies. 

Two trends:

a) Big Oil is winning
b) more rail in the short- to medium-term

There are two arenas: a) the political arena; b) the investing arena

Political arena:

I don't care who wins on the pipeline story: activists or realists. I have no control over it and it will be what it will be (Kennedy: worry about the things one can change; don't worry about the things one can't change, or something to that effect)

Investing arena:

• it looks like manufacturers are going to be busy making rail tank cars for quite some time
• companies with rights of way already in place have a nice head start

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you've read here. 

Director's Cut -- August, 2018 -- Data Is Posted

Link here: for links to NDIC and the Director's Cuts. And to Art Berman's "shale is a retirement party."

Disclaimer: the Director's Cut summary that I try to do every month is done very, very quickly. There will be typographical and/or factual errors. That's why I have the link. If this information is important to you, go to the link.

Done very quickly this time because I am traveling. There are likely to be typographical errors.

Crude oil:

• August, 2018: 1,291,496 bopd (new all-time high)
• July, 2018:  1,269,290 bopd 
• Delta: 22,206 bopd
• Percentage delta: 1.74%

Memo to self: note to Art Berman.

For August, 2018, he number is: 1,291,496 bbls/day (new all-time high)

• Crude oil: 1,291,496 bopd
• Natural gas: 2,437,760 MCF/day = 406,226 boepd (new all-time high)
• Total: 1,697,721 boepd (new all-time high)
• July, 2018 (last month): 1,669,328 boepd

Well completions:

• August, completions, preliminary: 114
• July, completions: 106 (preliminary): actual -- 125 (final)
• June, completions: 63 (preliminary): actual - 85 (final)
• May, completions: 42 (preliminary); actual -- 72 (final)
• April, completions: 69 (preliminary); actual --> 86 (final)
• March completions: 75
• February completions: 74
• January completions: 65

DUCs + inactive wells:

• August, 2018, DUCs and inactive wells: 2,352
• DUCs, waiting on completion: 925, down 18 from end of July to end of August
• inactive well count: 1,427, down 59 from end of July to end of August; 
• July, 2018, DUCs and inactive wells: 2,429
• DUCs, waiting on completion: 943, down 50 from the end of June to the end of July
• inactive well count: 1,486, up 28 during same time period
• June, 2018, DUCs and inactive wells: 2,451
• May, 2018, DUCs and inactive wells: 2,451
• see "DUC commentary," dated June 29, 2018 

Flaring (Tioga gas plant was at 99% capacity):

• statewide: 82% (no change from last month)
• statewide, Bakken: 83% (down from 84% last month)
• FBIR Bakken: 73% (down from 76% last month) -- federal, getting worse; atrocious, compared to state
• ND goal: 88% capture; increasing to 91% beginning November 1, 2020

Wow,Talk About A Retirement Party! -- December 6, 2018

Updates

Later, 10:10 p.m. CT: afraid that the link might be lost -- 

USGS Report Expands Permian’s Wolfcamp, Bone Spring Potential Bounty. 

The lede:

Anyone who follows the flow of U.S. oil and gas knows the Permian Basin’s Wolfcamp shale and Delaware Basin’s Bone Spring Formation are bountiful, but a new report from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) shows the enormity of their potential resources: an estimated 46.3 billion barrels of oil plus 281 trillion cubic feet of gas and 20 billion barrels of NGL.

That’s more than double the previous resource assessment for oil in the Wolfcamp.

I can never get my hands around "trillion cubic of natural gas." I need to compare 281 trillion cubic feet to other plays. See this link. Prior to the USGS report, natural gas reserves in the US were estimated to be 350 trillion cubic feet. Australia, 152 trillion cubic feet. Marcellus, 65 trillion cubic feet (probably will be revised upwards). 281 trillion cubic feet of natural gas -- and remember, reserves are based partly on price of production; if the price of natural gas were to go up, reserves would go up. Incredible, absolutely incredible.

I doubt this will be reported on network nightly news. But we'll certainly see a story about a cat caught in a tree and rescued by fire department on the way to a seven-alarm fire. Or another story on severe weather.

I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I'm clearly overly optimistic with my own estimates of 50 billions bbls of recoverable oil in the Bakken, but here it is, the very, very conservative USGS coming up with almost 50 billion bbls of recoverable oil in just a couple of pay zones in the Permian.

From wiki: "To convert to one boe, the USGS gives a figure of 6,000 cubic feet of typical natural gas."

So, 281 trillion cubic / 6,000 cubic feet = 50,000,000,000 boe. Assuming I did the math correctly. Big assumption. 

Original Post

 

The USGS, which is part of the U.S. Department of Interior, deemed its review of resources in the Permian Basin province as the “largest continuous oil and gas resource ever assessed.” The assessment released Dec. 6 was more like Christmas for U.S. Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, he said in a statement.

Wow, I need to get a life. I want to call it a night. I'm in a great mood, but exhausted. Loud 60's music recharging my battery (or is it batteries?).

I was ready to call it a day/night when a regular reader -- who seems to be as inappropriately exuberant about the US energy revolution as I am (😀) -- sent me a note.

I will post what he sent me and then get back to it tomorrow with links, etc. Also, tomorrow, a story about Trump and sage grouse.

But after this, I swear on the stack of bibles that I'm reading, I will not post any more notes until tomorrow. I will just read, watch the end of the NFL game on mute, and play 60's music as loud as I can without annoying the neighbors.

From the reader:

Greetings.

USGS report today puts Delaware portion of Wolfcamp along with Delaware Bone Spring at 46 billion barrels. 20 billion barrel NGLs.

This, combined with Midland Wolfcamp at 20 billion and Spraberry Midland at 4 billion gives 70 billion barrels technically recoverable resource from these formations alone!

There are several other formations/horizons within the Permian Basin. 

Paging Art Berman, indeed! 

Best Regards. 

Paging Art Berman! 😛

Sloop John B, Brian Wilson & Al Jardine

Three Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; Bruin Reportes Another Huge FB Belford Well; Shale Operators Cash Flow Update -- RBN Energy -- December 20, 2021

Over the weekend, Art Berman noted that US shale operators were "swimming in cash." RBN Energy discusses that below.

Now, Art Berman has tweeted again: world total liquids production has recovered to the December, 2014, level but remains about 6 million bopd (about 6%) less than the November, 2018, peak.

Art must have been on a roll, also tweeting at the time: "shale companies spent $6 billion in capital expenditure in the last quarter ... cash from operations, meanwhile, sits at around $13 billion, approaching record levels."

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: estimate only; NDIC provides update at close of business each day.

	12/20/2021	12/20/2020	12/20/2019	12/20/2018	12/20/2017
Active Rigs	31	15	54	69	51

Monday, December 20, 2021: 75 for the month, 104 for the quarter, 330 for the year:

• None.

Sunday, December 19, 2021: 75 for the month, 104 for the quarter, 330 for the year:

• 38185, conf, CLR, Tallahassee FIU 7-21H, Baker, 33-035-0659,  no production data,
• 37189, conf, Whiting, Feehan 11-9HU, Sanish, 33-061-04634, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 64K 10/21;

Saturday, December 18, 2021: 73 for the month, 102 for the quarter, 328 for the year:

• 36302, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-14B-LL, Eagle Nest, 33-025-03775, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 123K 10/21;

RBN Energy: E&Ps bas in the warmth of strong third-quarter profits, cash flow. Archived.

It may seem like a strange turn of phrase, but the best way to describe the E&P sector’s recent round of quarterly earnings calls is a celebration of remarkable climate change. Buffeted and nearly swamped over the past few years by price volatility, investor revolt, regulatory restrictions, and a global pandemic, oil and gas producers finally have the opportunity to bask amid robust returns in an increasingly sunny economic environment. 

E&Ps are enjoying higher profits and massive free cash flow, raising their dividends, and looking forward to 2022 with renewed optimism. In today’s RBN blog, we outline the dramatic recovery of E&Ps since mid-2020, examine the surge in third-quarter results, and look ahead to the next round of earnings calls this winter.