Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Absolutely Staggering: New Petroleum / Natural Gas Records Being Set By The US -- October 31, 2018

Fast and furious: I was out and about all day so I am behind in my blogging. Now with Halloween this evening, I will be delayed even further. There is a lot of stuff to blog so it's going to be a long, long night.

Unedited (okay, maybe just a little): I was going to post a similar story as the one below but when I got home I saw that a reader had already done it (the story) for me. Read this slowly; let it sink in; think about what this means (there will be a short quiz following):
  • the US has (again) broken records for oil and gas production, adding over 0.4 million bopd last month to break past 11.3 million bopd based on today's 914 monthly report (covering August)
  • Texas, GOM, ND, CO, OK, AK, WY, NM all up strongly
  • natural gas is also setting new records, with over 2 BCF/d of added production. Overall gas with second month over 100 BCF/d. Lower 48 approaching 95 BCFd. 
News article:

EIA report:
Interestingly, Rystad had predicted a massive increase this month, in excess of the STEO prediction.
They were the only analysts to stick up for EIA last fall, when people like Harold Hamm and Mark Papa, let alone the shale haters, were all criticizing EIA as too growth optimistic. But even Rystad underestimated how massive the month would be. We are now more than 2.1 million bopd higher in production than exactly one year ago. So much for peak oil. Amusingly, the peak oilers were dissing Rystad just a day ago:
Oh...and even the Gulf of Mexico is setting records. Broke past 1.8 million bopd last month for first time. Latest EIA report is now over 1.9 million bopd.

Maybe Snopes can write an article "fact checking" the peak oilers?


I remember very well those comments by Harold Hamm, and particularly Mark Papa, under-estimating what the Bakken was going to do. It is truly amazing. I admit it: I was swayed by Mark Papa -- after all, he's considered one of the smartest men alive when it comes to the Bakken.

Snopes? LOL.

Also, of course, my monthly memos to Art Berman and Jane Nielson.

This still remains one of my all-time favorite posts, from December 8, 2018 --
From November 30, 2017:
"Shale is not a revolution -- it's a retirement party. Shale plays were not some great new idea. They became important only as more attractive plays were exhausted." -- Art Berman.
With regard to Mark Papa, here's the post from March 11, 2018

In the note sent by the reader it was noted:
  • Texas, GOM, ND, CO, OK, AK, WY, NM all up strongly
If Proposition 112 in Colorado passes, one can remove that state from the list above. Wow, if the voters pass that proposition it will truly be a Grimm fairy tale for that state, every bit as unfortunate as the "golden goose" story.

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