Happy Halloween -- October 31, 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Yellen; remains concerned the economy could overheat. A nice worry to have. The Fed can prevent that. 

Rare: I don't see this often, but oil stocks are moving in pre-market. DNR up 5%. 

GM: pops 10% in pre-market trading. See "Cramer note" below.

EPD: beats; shares up 2%.

EOG: live webcast, Friday, November 2, 2018; 9:00 a.m. central time.

Consumer confidence: US consumer confidence surged in October to 18-year high. At almost 138, it is at the highest level since September, 2000.

BP: doubles profit; best quarterly results in over five years; may be able to pay for BHP acquisition in all cash.

Cramer: last night he said the"fiscal year" for many mutual funds ends October 31. Is the fairly regular "October surprise" "manufactured" by Wall Street?

EIA: weekly crude oil inventory report -- link --

• US crude oil inventories, increased, confirming API data yesterday: increased by 3.2 million bbls; at 426 million bbls, 2% above the five-year average for this time of yeaf
• refineries are at operating well off their capacity; at 89.4%
• gasoline production was slightly above my threshold of 10 million bbls per day
• distillate fuel production right at my threshold of 5.0 million bbls per day
• total products supplies up 5.4% from same period last year
• gasoline product supplied relatively unchanged
• distillate fuel supplied increased by a whopping 14.2% from same period last week
• jet fuel product supplied down almost 4% from same four-week period last year

Gasoline demand: I'm almost afraid to look. Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

Insert sad face here: there are no wells coming off confidential list today.

Active rigs:

$66.44→	10/31/2018	10/31/2017	10/31/2016	10/31/2015	10/31/2014
Active Rigs	68	53	34	70	193

RBN Energy: a new drill down report on Northeast gas takeaway capacity and basis.

The U.S. Northeast natural gas market has had a volatile few weeks. Regional gas production has surged, averaging 30.4 Bcf/d in the second half of October (2018), up 800 MMcf/d from the first half of the month and up nearly 1 Bcf/d from the September average. Normally (for the past several years), those kinds of supply gains, particularly in a shoulder month and during maintenance season, would have one result: Marcellus/Utica prices taking a nosedive. But that’s not exactly the case this year. Instead, Appalachian spot prices have been on a wild ride the past few weeks, swinging from barely $1.00/MMBtu (or more than $2.00/MMBtu below Henry Hub) on October 8, to over $3.00 (just $0.12 under Henry) on October 24 — the highest levels seen at this time of year since 2013, both in terms of outright prices and basis differentials to Henry Hub. The catalyst is nearly 3 Bcf/d of new takeaway capacity from the growing producing region that has been added in recent weeks, including, most recently, partial service on a brand-new route on Enbridge/DTE Energy’s 1.5-Bcf/d NEXUS Gas Transmission. What does this latest round of expansions and the resulting basis strength mean for the Northeast and its downstream gas markets? In today’s blog, we discuss highlights from our new 26-page report on evolving Northeast gas takeaway capacity utilization and additions, and their effects on price relationships.

For years, the U.S. Northeast gas market has been defined by rapid production growth, perpetual transportation constraints, distressed supply prices and stranded producers — a topic we’ve covered extensively in the RBN blogosphere over the years. These market conditions have had a domino effect on the broader U.S. gas market — turning a traditionally demand-driven market into a net gas supplier for the U.S., flipping regional prices on their heads and prompting massive midstream investment to reverse gas pipelines so they flow out of the burgeoning Marcellus/Utica shale.