He's Back -- Art Berman -- What A Doofus -- May 13, 2018

Updates

December 20, 2021: Art Berman -- US shale operators "swimming in cash."

July 15, 2018: Art Berman famously declared back in 2017 that with the decline in production in the Bakken, it was "the beginning of the end of the Bakken." The Bakken his a boepd production record and another natural gas production record in April, 2018. In May, 2018, the Bakken hit a trifecta: setting all-time production records for a) crude oil; b) natural gas; and, c) boe. That same week oilprice.com suggested "peak oil" theory was alive and well -- it simply had to be re-defined a bit.

Later, 5:27 p.m. CDT: see two first comments. I'm not sure what to make of Berman. My biggest problem: tells investors to short the oil market and then says he will keep his holdings.

Original Post 

From December 8, 2017: "... the beginning of the end of the Bakken." -- Art Berman (or Arthur Berman). A peak oil proponent. "Energy specialist & keynote speaker". Writes for Forbes, I believe. "Shale is not a revolution -- it's a retirement party. Shale plays were not some great new idea. They became important only as more attractive plays were exhausted."

[I've linked articles to Art Berman fairly often. Google "berman" on the blog. I think I've always referred to him as "Art" as he does on his web page, but he often is referred to by "Arthur," so don't do an "Arthur Berman" search. But I degress.]

He's back. [A huge "thank you" to a reader for alerting me to this story.]

And as humorous as ever.

It's over at Rigzone of all places, and a Bloomberg story. Apparently he gave a speech; no one hung around for the Q & A. That speaks volumes. The entire article is worth keeping but I can only post a bit of it. I will archive the rest.

He tells everyone to "short the Permian," but he's keeping his inherited EOG stock. Wow.

The lede:

The geologist who earned the wrath of shale drillers a decade ago with forecasts that natural gas was about to run out is now warning that the Permian Basin has just seven years of proven oil reserves left.

Arthur Berman, a former Amoco scientist who now works as an industry consultant near Houston, said the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico that currently pumps more oil than any other North American field won’t last for long. And the Eagle Ford shale about 350 miles (560 kilometers) away in South Texas isn’t looking good either.

Berman’s grim outlook, based on analyses of reserves and production data from more than a dozen prominent shale drillers, flies in the face predictions from the U.S. Energy Department, Chevron Corp. and others that the Permian is becoming one of the dominant forces in global crude markets.

Bloomberg noted:

Permian output already exceeds that of three-fourths of OPEC members.

One of the problems: Berman talks in generalities, or at least the media only reports in generalities. Specifically, what does Berman see as peak production in the Permian over the next five years?

Disclaimer: Art Berman will eventually be correct on perhaps a point or two, but so far, he has been incredibly wrong, especially his opinion on technology. And yet he says he's an energy specialist. Whatever. Hubbert's peak oil theory, of course, has been disproved. Remember, a theory falls apart as soon as one finds one exception. Having said that, this is not an investment site. Do not make any financial, investment, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read at this blog, or think you may have read at this blog. This blog is for educational and entertainment purposes. Art Berman falls under the latter category.