Semiconductors, Chips, AMD, XLNX, Apple, And All That Jazz -- November 9, 2021

Updates

Pre-market, November 9, 2021:

• 150 *1.7234 = $258.51
• ($258.51 - $208.01) / $208.01 = a 24.3% premium

Later, 6:30 a.m. CT: AMD still has a 23% premium to XLNX. No news on state of merger.

Original Post

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. This is not an investment site. This page is for my own benefit to try to better understand the market. I would prefer this not be read by others, but if one reads it, don't quote me on it. Facts, factoids, opinions and observations are interspersed through the post, and it is difficult to separate fact from fiction. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

The semiconductor (chip) story, yesterday, Monday, was incredible. That was the most interesting sector Monday.

Nvidia is a story in itself. I don't have a dog in that fight, so, I will ignore it.

The story that I am most interested in is the acquisition of XLNX by AMD.

That deal was supposed to close by the end of the year (2021); it's been going through the regulatory process for more than a year, and it's been approved by all regulators but one: the Chinese. The Chinese may yet scuttle the deal. 

XLNX paid a nice dividend prior to the acquisition announcement a year ago. XLNX quit paying a dividend at least a year ago. 

Interestingly enough, apparently there was language in the proposed deal that allowed XLNX to re-instate the dividend if the deal did not close by November 8, 2021. That would cost XLNX $100 million; if the acquisition is approved by the Chinese after November 8, 2021, the acquirer, AMD, will lose $100 million simply due to "timing."

For more on this discussion, see the SeekingAlpha article here. That article was posted October 29, 2021, and the writer said it was probable, but not guaranteed that the Chinese would approve the deal by November 8, 2021, and prevent the dividend from being paid.

This is simply amazing, We get to follow this story in real time, and it's getting very, very interesting.

First of all, there was a major event by AMD yesterday (an accelerated data center and EPYC)  and it was widely felt that XLNX would be there if the merger was on track. XLNX was not in attendance. That was a minor story compared to everything else but it may suggest that things are not going well with the Chinese.

Good time now to link:

• arbitrage;
• merger arbitrage;
• trading halt (US law or Rule 48).
  

In this case, it's all about "merger arbitrage." 

If the deal goes through, each XLNX shareholder will get 1.7234 shares of AMD.

AMD surged over 10%; gaining $13.82; closed at $150.16, and was up another dollar after hours, supposedly due to a "meta" deal with Meta (FB).  But there may have been more to the story. 

The SeekingAlpha article alludes to the merger arbitrage article, one individual suggesting if the deal was going to go through, the spread between AMD and XLNX would not be as wide as it is. The writer of the article suggested that the reason for the wide spread was simply because those engaged in arbitrage by buying XLNX were simply not able to keep up with how fast AMD was surging.

XLNX was up only 4.79% at the close, up $9.50; closing at $208, which suggests the writer of the article might have been correct. Or not. Maybe some folks are getting cold feet. If the deal does not go through, XLNX will fall back to its "fair value" of $150. 

 But look at this. Look at that spread. Right now, a XLNX share is worth $209. AMD is trading at $150.

If the deal goes through, each XLNX share will be worth 1.7234 x $150 = $259, let's call it $260.

$260 - $210 = $50

$50 / 210 = 24%.

A merger arbitrageur could have bought XLNX for $210 yesterday and, if the deal goes through, immediately flip / sell AMD and make a tidy 24% profit.

Nice.

I'll be watching for the exchange or the SEC to stop XLNX trading some time this week. 

But XLNX went ex-dividend on November 5, 2021, and the 37 cents / share will be paid on November 15, 2021. Had something happened today, "they" might have been able to stop the dividend, but I think it's too late to stop that now.

******************************
Semiconductor Companies

In the process of trying to sort out the AMD - XLNX deal this evening, I stumbled across something that was just as interesting.

At 5:52 p.m. last night, I posted: 

Years and years ago, Apple, Inc., was a hardware / software company. Then somewhere along the line it morphed into a fashion company but, shortly after that, morphed into a mobile entertainment company. Now, Apple is a semiconductor company. See this post. Lots of hyperbole, of course, but some might get the point. 

I clearly stated Apple was now a semiconductor company. 

At Google Finance, looking for any story that might shed light on the AMD - XLNX deal, I checked out XLNX, and lo and behold, look what I found.

At Google Finance, the company in question is "compared" to other companies in the same sector. 

At XLNX, Google Finance said to compare the latter with:

• Microchip Technology
• Marvell Techology
• MKS Instruments
• Texas Instruments
• Expeditors International
• Intel Corp
• Apple Inc
• NVIDIA Corporation
• Advanced Micro Devices

I can't make this stuff up. Whoo-hoo!

Three screenshots:

Note: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, relationship, or job decisions based on anything you read at this blog. If this is important to you, go to the source.

*************************

A Note For The Granddaughters

I'm actually ahead of the "game" this year. Often I wait until it's too late, but for whatever reason I cleaned up my equity portfolio before the end of the year, selling my losers (and some were significant) and using whatever cash I might have for new investments.

A reader asked me earlier this month on some of my thoughts on investing. I am the last person one would want to ask. No doubt I would have done much better over the years had I turned everything over to a professional financial advisor, but

• I would not have had as much fun;
• I would not have learned as much; and,
• I would not have stayed involved in the US economy, which I really enjoy

I have mentioned to other readers that I seldom check my portfolio unless I plan to sell or buy something. In the process of buying something, I then check to see if there's anything worth selling. I am not a trader. I am pretty much "buy and hold."

Now that I am retired I don't have as much discretionary income as I had when I was part of the labor force. Most of my discretionary income available for investing comes from dividends that are not automatically reinvested from which they came.

It takes a few months for enough cash to accumulate to make purchases in new investments worthwhile.

So, that brought me back to the reader's question, about my thoughts on investments.

Reflecting on that, I asked myself, where did I do best over the years? What investments did the best? Anecdotally, it appears I did best when a company was spun off, or a company was bought, or a company was sold. And some of those "events" were incredibly significant. The problem: no one can predict those "events."

Two of the commonalities of those "events" were:

• the "events" all involved blue-chip stocks (small-cap, mid-cap, or big-cap)
• shares in all companies had originally been bought with a 20-year horizon

Examples:

• BNSF/Berkshire
• BAX/Baxalter/Shire
• ATT breakup (years and years ago)

Close but no cigar:

• HAL/BHI

Pending:

• GE/BHI

Some of these deals resulted in a better outcome even if the dollar amount at the time was not particularly noteworthy. For example, at the time, I would have preferred that BNSF not be bought by Berkshire (for several reasons) but it has turned out to be much better than expected over the years.

So, now with my cash today, where do I invest?

For awhile I was accumulating GE because I think it's a great company for someone with a 20-year horizon. But then when I saw the big computer chip companies buying smaller computer chip companies, I began to wonder whether accumulating XLNX might not be a better idea. In other words, invest in a great company with a "small market cap" in an enviable sector, thinking it might be taken over.

So, a challenge: should I change my investment strategy from accumulating a big-cap company like GE and investing in a blue-chip company that might be bought by another company? So, I'm struggling with that right now, but I think I've come to a solution.

I think I will stop here. The post is getting long. Maybe more later.

Oh, some thoughts with regard to the economy / political environment.

XLNX was recently in the news as a possible buyout candidate, but that "excitement" died when a chip company other than XLNX was bought by a larger chip company. I had invested in XLNX over the years and the question rose whether I should now sell it, that it was temporarily out of favor as a take-over candidate. Then Trump won the election, and XLNX suddenly looks incredibly better. I did not sell; I purchased more. I bought XLNX before the election (for the same reason) but with the election outcome, I feel even better.

The other day, I mentioned GEO. In the current political environment, it's interesting. Two problems: I don't see this as something I would accumulate over a 20-year horizon; and, it's in a sector I know little about. I haven't said I won't invest in GEO but it would go against two of my "rules" when investing.

Slawson Reports Two DUCs Completed; Thirteen Permits Renewed; Ovintiv With Three New Permits; Enerplus With One New Permit -- December 8, 2021

Mind the gap: link here.

The estimated copper shortfall by 2030 looks even worse.

AMD / XLNX acquisition: one more milestone reached.

• tea leaves: announcement that deal is closed will be early next week, maybe Monday
• 1.7234
• AMD up slightly at the close; down a bit after hour -- $145.24 --> $250 implied for XLNC
• XLNX up 0.4% at the close; up 0.25% after hours -- $225
• back of the envelope
• delta: $250 - $225 = $25 / XLNX share
• some assume, I suppose, after it's announced that the deal closes, AMD drops a big and XLNX jumps a bit
• 25/2 = 12.50
• 145.24 - 12.50 = $132.75
• 1.7234 * $132.75 = $228 / sh XLNX
• $132.75 / sh AMD

King of LNG: US to beat Qatar at its own game: link to Tsvetana Paraskova. A reader said as much just a couple of days ago. EIA forecast for el fin de 2022:

• US: 11.4 bcf/d
• Australia: 11.4 bcf/d
• Qatar: 10.3 bcf/d

WTI: continues to creep up; up 31 cents today; now at $72.36.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

Flaring targets: link here. 

Active rigs:

$72.36	12/8/2021	12/08/2020	12/08/2019	12/08/2018	12/08/2017
Active Rigs	29	16	55	64	53

Four new permits, #38690 - #38693, inclusive:

• Operators: Ovintiv (Newfield) (3; Enerplus
• Fields: Westberg (McKenzie); Heart Butte (Dunn)
• Comments:
• Enerplus has a permit for a Lob well in SWSE 31-149-92; 
• to be sited 829 FSL and 2084 FEL, part of the "Tennis" pad?
• Ovintive has permits for three Clear Creek Federal wells in SESW 36-152-97; 
• the wells will be sited 295 FSL and between 2529 FWL and 2489 FWL; 

Thirteen permits renewed;

• CLR (6): two Berlain permits in McKenzie County; two Olympia and two Charleston permits, all in Williams County
• MRO (6): all in Dunn County -- Sallie USA, OTT USA, Ellis USA, CHdester USA, Borrud USA, and Bean USA;
• BR: one Hawktail permit in Dunn County

Producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37423, 1,263, Slawson, Tempest Federal 2-14H, Big Bend; how coincidental: I noticed the wells were starting to produce earlier to today and posted here;
  
• 37424, 294, Slawson, Orca Federal 3-23-26H, Big Bend, first production, 10/21; t--; cum --;
  

Looking At 5G -- Investors Only -- Nothing About The Bakken -- March 5, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you may have read here.

XLNX: link here --

• will likely report 4Q18 earnings on April 24, 2019
• based on ten analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is 94 cents
• the reported EPS for the same quarter one year ago: 77 cents
• Other data points from various sources:
• trading near its 52-week high
• pays slightly more than 1%
• Xilinx shareholder have enjoyed an impressive 161% share price gain (over three years)
• share price is up about 35% in about a quarter -- link here, March 5, 2019;
• XLNX is "best-in-class" 5G chip pick -- BofA ML analyst; link here -- Barrons; March 4, 2019;
• five high-flying stocks near their 52-week highs that can scale higher -- Zacks, March 4, 2019; of the five stocks, XLNX was mentioned first;
• press release: XLNX chip can cover the entire sub-6 gigahertz spectrum, which is critical for next-generation 5G deployment

***************************************
A Pretty Ugly Graphic

Link here: GE shares tumble; company sees "significant" headwinds to 2019 industrial cash flows. On top of that, US GDP growth for 1Q19 might come in at 0.3%.

***************************************

Two Heavyweights Drop Out: Clear The Field For Biden-Beto

Within the last couple of days, Hillary says "no." Earlier today, Michael Bloomberg also said he won't run for the Democratic nomination for president. He cites the "fact" that he could not break out of the crowded field, especially given the rules the DNC has set for a potential candidate to be in the primary debates.

Take any of the current announced candidates and seriously ask yourself, do you actually see any of them becoming the next president of the United States? Pocahontas? Kamala Harris? Bernie Sanders? I just don't see it. Which brings me back to Biden-Beto.

It speaks volumes that both heavyweight contenders -- Bloomberg and Hillary -- have said no. They have seen the polls and they know how far left they would have to move.

Cuomo? He might not even be able to win his own state. The guys and gals from Virginia, West Virginia, New Jersey? Possibly. The governor of Illinois? Possibly.

The Market And Energy Page, Part II, T+187 -- July 26, 2017

Updates

Later, 6:32 p.m. Central Time: I've been wondering why XLNX was not riding the coat tails of Nvidia; and then why XLNX was not riding the coat tails of Advanced Micro .... wonder no more ...  after a so-so day for XLNX, it soared near the end, and finished almost 3% higher. Whoo-hoo! [Later: perhaps now. Now I see that XLNX may have done it on its own -- Xilinx beats 1Q17 forecast -- 63 cents vs 60 cents forecast. Can't wait to see market tomorrow. Miss on revenues.]

Later, 5:20 p.m. Central Time: update on Foxconn building facility in Wisconsin. From jsonline, data points:

• $10 billion investment
• will require $3 billion in subsidies from state taxpayers 
• southeastern Wisconsin
• a virtual village: manufacturing plant(s); housing; stores; service businesses
• spread over at least 1,000 acres
• 1.5 square miles
• 20 million square feet: 3x the size of the Pentagon; will be one of the largest manufacturing campuses in the US
• will initially employ 3,000 workers; average wage/salary: $54K 
• "The single largest economic development project in the history of Wisconsin, one of the largest in the history of the US."
• "America does not have a single LCD plant to produce a complicated system. We are going to change that."
•  this would not have happened under a third-term Obama presidency/Hillary unless it came with a lot of political donations and/or funding for The Foundation

Original Post

Inept? Hillary and company were unable to find Wisconsin during the 2016 presidential campaign. On the other hand, Apple and Foxconn appear to have had no trouble finding the state. In my mind, there is absolutely not one reason for Foxconn to build in Wisconsin, but it appears that this is a Trump-reward for the president carrying that state. According to CNBC, there are twenty states that have a better business climate than Wisconson. The state ranked 15th and 17th in education and technology/innovation, respectively. Hardly noteworthy. More at Crain's.

T: shares pop almost 5% on earnings beat. Posted 79 cent/share; better than the 74-cent forecast and better than 72 cents/share last year.

Fake news: with all the media hype about T-Mobile having the best network, it turns out to be "fake news." In most recent survey, T-Mobile ranks fourth -- which is almost dead last. Top three: Verizon, ATT, and Sprint. From Fortune.

The company's testing showed that all four major carriers–AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint—improved average speeds in at least 20 markets in the first half versus the end of 2016. "Taken together, this suggests that investments are being made that counteract any demands on the networks from unlimited data plans," Hamilton said.

But, of course, T-Mobile cried foul. LOL.  Regardless of how they placed in the competition, they all get a participation trophy.

Nation's largest job fair. Data points:

• Amazon
• 50,000 job openings
• 10 fulfillment centers across the US 

Boom: US new home sales rise for second straight month. "Out west" June new home purchases surged to a 10-year high. Ten years. Hmmmm..... the entire Obama presidency fits into that lost decade.

******************************

More On T

From the linked article above:

Digging deeper into the segment numbers, the company’s wireless business added 2.8 million net subscribers. Of that total, 2.3 million were in the U.S., while 476,000 were from Mexico. Notably, U.S. wireless subscribers achieved its best-ever postpaid phone churn of 0.79%, while Total postpaid churn was 1.01% — both above Street estimates.

The company lost only 89,000 postpaid phone subscribers. Not only did that total narrow its loss from 180,000 in the year-earlier-period, it also topped analysts forecast for a loss 256,000 postpaid subscribers.

On their own, these numbers aren’t breathtaking. But when taken into context with respect to dominance of T-Mobile, AT&T doesn’t appear to be in the sort of dire straits T-Mobile’s boastful CEO John Legere has implied. In T-Mobile’s own Q2 results released last week, the company added 1.3 million total net subscribers, of which branded postpaid net adds were 817,000 and postpaid phone net adds were 786,000.

T-Mobile management insisted they would capture more than 100% of industry’s postpaid growth, meaning there would be nothing left for either AT&T or market leader Verizon Communications Inc. But AT&T’s results, combined with the improving churn rate, suggests otherwise.

The company’s wireless business is making up for shortfalls elsewhere such as in the landline U-verse TV service, which shed 195,000 subscribers.

Ovintiv With Five New Kramer Permits In Siverston Oil Field -- April 6, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Stocks to watch: special shareholders' meeting tomorrow for AMD and XLNX shareholders, AMD to acquire XLNX:

• AMD: up slightly today; closed at $81.44;
• XLNX: down 33 cents today; closed at $130.40;
• a pretty much given: after tomorrow, XLNX shareholders will become AMD shareholders;

Market closed mixed today; not much change after hitting all-time records yesterday:

• BRK-B: up slightly; closed at $263, coming close to its 52-week high, $268;
• UNP: down 1%; closed at $221; near its 52-week high, $225;
• SRE: green, whoo-hoo; up slightly; closed at $134; near its 52-week high, $137
• MNRL: up a whopping 6%; closed at $15.69;
• YUM: up over 3%; hits 52-week high; closed at $114;
  
• YUMC: up over 1%; closed at $60; near its 52-week high;
  

Texas economy, link here:

• Max Midstream to start Texas crude export in May, 2021
• first crude exports to Europe in first week of May;
• focused on shipping Eagle Ford grades for now;
• next expansion, Permian connections slated for April, 2022;
• terminal at the Port of Calhoun:
• goal: establish an export hub: between Houston and Corpus Christi, and the Port of Calhoun
• Max will focus on Europe; most large Texas exporters focused on Asia
• much more at the link;

***************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$59.33	4/6/2021	04/06/2020	04/06/2019	04/06/2018	04/06/2017
Active Rigs	13	40	62	57	49

Five new permits, #38239 - #38243, inclusive:

• Operator: Ovintiv
• Field: Siverston (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Ovintiv has permits for five Kramer wells in Siverston oil field;
• will be sited in NWNE 18-150-97;
  
• wells will be sited between 440' and 360' FNL and 2201' FEL;

Six permits renewed:

• Petro-Hunt (3): three State permits in Burke County;
• Sinclair (3): three Porcupine permits in Dunn County;

Three permits canceled:

• EOG: three Austin permits in Mountrail County;

Chips -- November 18, 2021

Overview of the top five foundry companies: link here, October 1, 2021.

• TSMC
• Phoenix announcement; expansion; investment with this announcement: $40 billion
  
• update: March 25, 2022; 
• Samsung
• United Microelectronics Corporation (Taiwan) (UMC)
• Global Foundries
• China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC)

EVs -- tracked here. EVs need three basic components:

• hardware manufacturer; assembly line; huge facility;
• chips, semiconductor: outsourced to foundries
• software development: in-house, outsourced, combination

Foundries vs Designers

ASML: link here.

Foundries:

• INTC
• Samsung
  
• TSMC (wiki here)
• GlobalFoundries (wiki here)
•  long history; fourth largest in 2021
• IPO: October, 2021 
• at this site, only four foundries as noted above (Intel, Samsun, TSM, Global)
  

The "chip" companies of interest:

• Nvidia: best "chip" company -- Jim Cramer
• architecture history;
  
• on 13 September 2020, it was announced that Nvidia would buy Arm from SoftBank for $40 billion, subject to regulatory approval, with the latter acquiring a 10% share in Nvidia [Later: the deal never went through.]
  
• more and more, the tea leaves suggest this deal will not go through; US DOJ will fight this; [Later: the deal never went through.]
• tea leaves: it doesn't matter; in fact over time, it might be better for Nvidia not to buy Arm, Ltd, except to prevent some other chip company from buying it
  
• Arm, Ltd: owned by SoftBank Group
• wiki: SoftbankGroup
• wiki: Arm, Ltd
  
• AMD
• had planned to close on XLNX by end of CY21
• looking more and more likely that could be delayed 
• was completed; no more XLNX; shortly after deal closed, semiconductor market collapsed; still beat down in earl 2023, with little sign of early rebound;
  
• XLNX
• see AMD
  
• Qualcomm
• the break from Apple, when first announced, shocked the community
• November, 2021: after recovering, set all-time highs 
• January, 2023: both Broadcom and Qualcom downgraded with news that Apple reiterates goal to separate ties with AVGO and QCOM.
  
• AAPL
• tracked here;
• with introduction of the "Silicon" chip, AAPL became a "chip" company
• some day it's possible AAPL will be valued like a "chip" company
  
• INTC: across the board, most feel this company has significant challenges

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Jussie Smollett Found Guilty FWIW; Daimler Truck Day One Tomorrow; CPI Tomorrow -- Will We Hit Seven Percent? December 9, 2021

Daimler Trucks splits off tomorrow. I've been looking forward to this day for a long, long time. This is really, really going to be interesting. I have some photos of the EV truck factory in the Daimler factory in Portland, OR, with the proto-type on which the mechanics are training. I'm not posting the photos. I don't know who took the photos but I don't want anyone to get fired. Something tells me those photos were not authorized. I would expect to see / hear an interview on CNBC tomorrow on this new EV truck company, but CNBC may not think it's that big a deal. I won't be watching CNBC. I haven't watched CNBC since the "flash crash" the day after Thanksgiving. It's unlikely I will start watching again until after January 1, 2022.  One of a gazillion links here.

 XLNX / AMD merger: shorts are building. Link here. The other day I suggested what these two equities could settle at prior to the merger. Again, we're assuming the merger closes before the end of the year.

• $228 / sh XLNX
• $132.75 / sh AMD

• XLNX fell 4%, fell almost $10/share, to close at $215 / share
• AMD fell 5%, fell over $7/share, to close at $138 / share. 
• Interesting, huh?

Starbucks: the employees at one of three Starbucks restaurants in Buffalo, NY, were the first to ever unionize a Starbucks restaurant. Link here. Starbucks, the company, may want to "get ahead" of this sooner than later. Later: this is such a crazy story. This is not a grass roots effort. This is being pushed by "Big Labor" and "Big Labor" lost. There are nineteen Starbuck restaurants in Buffalo; one of the nineteen, unionized. How many employees at that one Starbucks? Nineteen, I believe. Fact-check needed. And of the nineteen employees, not all voted to unionize. Wait until these employees start paying union dues. LOL.

CPI data for November, 2021, will be released Friday morning, 8:30 a.m. ET, December 10, 2021. The forecast is for 6%+. Anything below 6.7% will be "what we expected" but if it's 7% or greater it will be quite a story. I think I saw a headline today that Brandon is already preparing Americans to expect the worst, telling us the November data is already "old" and does not reflect the significant drop in prices we've already seen in December. For example, except today when I saw gasoline prices go up again in my neighborhood, gasoline had dropped two cents / gallon in the last couple of weeks. 

Supply chain shortage: likewise, with cargo ships anchoring beyond the horizon while waiting for berthing at the Los Angeles / Long Beach ports, the congestion at the ports has been greatly reduced. So, we're making headway. 

More on the economy here.

******************************
North Texas

It is impossible to articulate how beautiful the weather is right now. I had to pick up something at Target tonight; pitch black after 8:00 p.m. CT; and it was nice enough to wear my short-sleeve Hawaiian shirt while riding my bike. 

Target was incredibly busy. If this is any indication of how the economy is doing, the economy is doing very, very well.

The Santa Claus Rally Commences -- December 27, 2021

The "w" in WTI now stands for "wow": WTI started off weak this morning, but by late morning, WTI had surged almost 3%; up $2.06; and, trading at $75.85. 

US retail sales: blow away expectations. Record spending everywhere. 

OPEC basket price: link here. 

• 2012: $110
• 2016: $40
• today: $70

S&P 500: trades at new intraday high.

Dow: above 36,000 again, but still below its all-time high.

First group "financial / economic" indicators:

• 10-Year Treasury: link here. Down -- 1.477%.
  
• DXY: link here. Yawn. 96.09.
  
• Silver: link  here.Broke through $23.
  
• CBOE volatility index: link here. Up almost 3%; 18.43.

Merger: no news.

• AMD: up almost 4%; up $5.66; trading at $152;
• XLNX: up almost 2%; up $4.00; trading at $220;
• XLNX shareholders to get 1.7234 shares of AMD per share of XLNX
  

******************
RMDS

New "IRS longevity tables" in 2022? Link here.

Example, a single 75-year-old woman whose IRA is worth $100,000 at the end of 2021 will have to withdraw a minimum of $4,065 in 2022, about $300 less than she would have under the earlier guidelines

Link here for more comprehensive review. Three years compared:

• tax year, 2020;
• tax year, 2021;
• tax year, 2022;

For tax year 2021, regarding non-spouse / non-eligible designated beneficiaries who inherit an IRA after 2019 are subject to a new 10-year payout rule and do not use this or any table. 

But look at this, for tax year 2022 (tax will be due April 15, 2023):

• new longevity tables (to the taxpayers' advantage; and,
• then this: 

The IRS included a transition rule for non-spouse beneficiaries who inherited an IRA prior to January 1, 2022 after RMDs have begun, and who are currently using the Single Life Table. The transition provides a “reset” for the life expectancies using the new tables. Therefore, table changes for 2022 will be more complicated.

There will be a one-time reset (“redetermination”) of the life expectancy that year. The beneficiary will “go back” to the year after the year of owner’s death and find his/her (i.e., beneficiary’s not the deceased) single life expectancy as of his/her age in that year using the new table. Subsequently, one year will be deducted from the new life expectancy for each year since the first distribution year to arrive at the divisor for the relevant post-2021 year.

Clearing Out The In-Box -- November 20, 2021

Carnage: I was off line most of the day -- taking the day off. When I got back online tonight, based on tweets over at twitter I thought the world had come to an end with regard to WTI, Brent. 

I did not check share prices of any of the oil companies, save one, but it sounds like share prices across the sector plummeted. The only oil company I checked fell five percent but that was against a backdrop of a huge jump over the past few months.

But at $76-WTI we're still $20 / bbl above breakeven in many cases. Whether we are or aren't can be debated, but there are a lot of dynamics here. 

First, for the consumer, didn't "everyone" agree that the price of gasoline was getting a bit excessive? The divergence between the price of crude oil and the price of gasoline at the pump seems to be widening, in line with retail prices in all sectors, although Brandon thinks there is collusion to raise gasoline price, despite the fact that gasoline is a dollar/gallon more expensive in California than in its neighbor, Arizona.

Second, blaming this all on Austria / Covid seems to be a bit overdone. I understand the concerns folks have for the global economy, but I can't imagine another lock down even remotely close to what it was in 2020.

Third, most interesting, and this seems to be the growing consensus. If this is accurate, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. The consensus, it seems, is that for several years now there has been under-investment in crude oil exploration. Those in the West thought it would start to become quite apparent in 2022, whereas OPEC+ argued that supply / demand would start to balance out as early as 1Q22. At the same time, many in the West thought Brandon's energy policies would continue to hold back US production going forward. Talk of releasing oil from the SPR certainly risked that: if Brandon was going to release oil from the SPR it does not seem to behoove US oil companies to increase CAPEX when oil prices would be dropping. The end result: OPEC's prediction that supply / demand would  balance in 2022 is less likely to happen.

So, 2022, we're back to where we always seem to be, wondering whether crude oil will trend toward $100 or trend toward $50. I don't care for this "analyst," but he did post something of value today that speaks to all of this.

Bottom line for me: on so many levels, what happened today was good for everyone.

Let's see how far the price of gasoline falls. 

I've been saying this for quite some time -- the gap between the investing class and the non-investing class is widening faster than ever: see this link over at twitter. They call it “the massive chasm between the credentialed laptop class and the working-class.” 

NASDAQ: wow, wow, wow. NASDAQ surged and hit another all-time record today. I had no idea. Again, based on tweets over at twitter I thought the world had come to an end. I haven't checked yet, let's see what the chips did today:

• QCOM: down 0.7% today after setting all-time highs earlier in the week; five days ago, it was trading at $170; today, trading at $185, up 11% over the past five days;
• AMD: up slightly today; over five days, up 5%;
• XLNX: actually rose a bit today; but, wow, talk about volatility; over the past five days, up less than 2%; will the AMD-XLNX deal ever close? I'm beginning to have my doubts;
• AAPL: up 1.7% today; for five days, up 6.7%. 

AAPL: is getting more and more interesting every day. How does one value this company any more in light of Tesla, Rivian and Lucid, and in light of AMD, XLNX, and Qualcomm? Apple, Inc.:

• a smartphone company?
• a chip company?
• a future Tesla or Rivian?

Covid-19: this is getting very interesting again, with what's going on in Austria. It's obvious no one has any idea how this will play out. I can watch this over and over and over. What's the plural of doofus?

Covid-19: for the archives. The origin story. This won't change any minds, but it's important. I guess. If nothing else, it's another data point.

Austria: Austria? Just two days ago, we were getting all those reports that Asia was opening up again, they had gotten through the most recent surge and things were getting back to normal. China, Vietnam (think Nike), Malaysia -- the front end of the supply chain challenges. 

Austria? Exactly what is Austria contributing to the global economy? Vienna sausages? Tortes? Bavarian chocolate cake? Beer? Traders make money on volatility and it looks like traders may have purposely scared investors to cause that volatility.

Speaking of which, what did the VIX do today? Up 2% -- that sounds bad but at 18, it's so low if it gets any lower they will have to re-adjust the y axis (see this graphic and set the filter to one year). It's even more dramatic at five years.

Calendar: next week is a wash; no matter what the market does next week, everyone will say it is due to less trading as we head into the five-day holiday. 

Speaking of which, this is getting very, very interesting. When I was in high school, decades ago, we got Thursday off for Thanksgiving. That was it. I was well out of high school when students were getting Thanksgiving Friday off, also. But then, folks started taking off on Wednesday to get home in time for Thanksgiving, and/or to go skiing in Colorado. Now, it seems to be the norm that Thanksgiving break is a full week. 

But look at this! In our school district, the administration and the teachers have essentially written off Friday (the week before Thanksgiving) for the high school students. Everyone is leaving early for Texas football playoffs; soccer tournaments; volleyball tournaments; and/or to go skiing in Colorado. 

We now have an eleven-day holiday for Thanksgiving.

British Columbia: speaking of a "wash," oh, boy. Did BC ever get hit hard with global warming rain. See the video at this link. 

Oh-oh, the road to New England: two stories -- more Russian tankers will be off-loading fossil fuel the winter for Boston, Massachusetts. 

When that was announced this past week, it was such a non-story -- everyone knew it was going to happen -- I didn't even bother posting it. 

Now, today, FERC announces that it will reduce the ROE rate to keep two (?) natural gas plants in Massachusetts afloat. I guess they're having trouble passing on the costs of natural gas to their consumers and/or demand destruction is taking a heavy toll -- or winter just isn't that cold yet. One wonders if natural gas pipelines from Pennsylvania might have helped. Just saying.

The Fed: That pretty much clears out my inbox for the day. I assume the big story Monday will be Brandon's announcement regarding the "new" Fed chairperson. 

Brandon said the announcement would be made in about four days, about three days ago, but I doubt he would make such a momentous announcement on the weekend. 

Most likely, in the normal way things are done, we could expect a news conference on Monday with the announcement, but this administration, like the previous administration, is anything but normal. If we don't have the announcement Monday, it simply means the two factions in his White House are still squabbling. Me? I'm betting on a change in who sits in the Fed chief's chair. If I'm correct, expect the Dow to plunge on Monday, about 10:35 a.m.

Wednesday, April 10, 2019, T+98

List of accomplishments at day 98 for the 115th US Congress:

Moving on.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

The market: early morning trading --

• WTI: said to be up 45 cents but seems to be where it was yesterday at $64.43
• DOW:  down 20 points
• XLNX: up almost 2%; up over $2/share; now trading at $131/share
• UNP: still struggling; down another half a percent;
• EOG: recovers a bit; trading at $99
• NOG: nice; up a percent
• JAG: nice; up half a percent
• CVX: same here; up half a percent
• BA: wow; when will the bleeding stop; down another $5.00; trading around $364
• TSLA: infusion of cash from FiatChrysler as predicted some years ago; up $2.42/share

Mid-morning trading, except for XLNX, nothing remarkable

• XLNX: up almost $4/shr

If This Turns Out To Be True -- Quite A Story (Non-Bakken, Non-Energy) - July 10, 2017

Meningococcal vaccine may offer protection against gonorrhea. Link to story here.

With some exceptions, most states mandate meningococcal vaccination for those attending colleges or universities. The US military mandates this vaccination.

Despite the fact that gonorrhea and meningitis are quite different from one another, the bacteria that cause Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Neisseria meningitidis are actually related.

From the linked story:

The research, conducted in New Zealand, found that the gonorrhea rate among teens and young adults there who had received a meningitis B vaccine during an emergency campaign in the early 2000s was significantly lower than the rate seen in people of the same age who weren’t vaccinated.

****************************

The Stock Market

I wasn't paying attention to CNBC today. Checking something tonight brought me to this -- it was posted early this morning, before the market opened.

I couldn't find any news regarding XLNX but apparently "the Nvidia story" was the story driving everything. Then over at Investor's Business Daily, this headline and story:

These four sectors lead market higher; Amazon hurts retailers. Key U.S. index funds held modest gains Monday as tech stocks led the upside. Nvidia (NVDA) and Xilinx (XLNX) boosted chip ETFs.

Wow. One doesn't see XLNX at the top of these lists often. (Ever?)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Notes From All Over -- Early Evening Edition -- April 27, 2021

Natural gas: EU admits it can't "go net-zero" without natural gas. Link here.

Let's assume he's telling the truth: what is he saying? Link here. 

News we won't see on ABC Nightly News tonight: Germany sees it as the coldest April in 104 years; the second coldest since 1881; and the snowiest since 1986. Link here. 

And AMD? I haven't read the report yet but AMD was down 0.23% during the day and after hours it surged 3.85%, up $3.28; trading just below $90. That speaks volumes. Before looking at the AMD report, what did XLNX do? Whoo-hoo! XLNX popped after hours, up 3.4%, up $4.50; and trading at $138. So, let's go back to AMD. Don't you just love the phrase "smashes first-quarter estimates"? LOL. Link here. And on top of that, "guided higher."

• adjusted EPS: 52 cents vs 44 cents
• sales: $3.45 billion vs $3.21 billion forecast;
• y/y: earnings "rocketed" 189% and sales almost doubled;
• with Apple's M1 / M2 chip, and now AMD/XLNX, one really has to take another look at Intel
• also, Texas Instruments posted better-than-expected results; reporting today, also;

MSFT: apparently the earnings report was superb, but the stock closed flat and then, after hours, dropped 2.5%, dropped almost $7; trading at $255. Same thing could happen to AAPL tomorrow.

No Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- December 8, 2021

Omicron? Virus burning itself out. ala Spanish Flu? Whatever. Pfizer booster handles the variant just fine. Sort of like how seasonal flu is handled. Annual "seasonal flu" shot. PFE up slightly (very slightly) in early morning trading. 

Omigoodness: I just returned from the grocery store where I get potatoes, Spam, and Covid shots. I went in to get my Pfizer booster. No waiting, no appointment necessary, just walk-in. But I was early. I'm not "eligible" until December 19, 2021, to get the booster. That tells me everything I need to know about the seriousness of Covid-19 omicron. LOL.

From the Los Angeles Times: not saying this would happen in Texas, but my hunch is not as likely -- it's not as if the families didn't have enough time ...

Thousands of L.A. Unified students have not shown proof of vaccination About 34,000 students have yet to comply with the COVID-19 vaccine mandate in the Los Angeles Unified School District — and there’s no longer enough time for students to get the first shot and complete their required inoculation by the January 10, 2022, start of the second semester. 

This will probably force the nation’s second-largest school system into some difficult decisions. Students who are not fully vaccinated — or exempt — will be forced into the district’s independent study program or will have to leave the Los Angeles public school system. Shifting 34,000 students 12 and older into independent study would be challenging. And who would teach these students? 

The 34,000 total, by itself, would make up one of the 25 largest school systems among about 1,000 districts in California. There’s no current indication, however, that L.A. Unified is backing down. 

Chips to watch: XLNX, AMD. Link here. 

• two SeekingAlpha articles remain optimistic: one week ago, and, about five days ago.
• arbitrage: right now the spread is $24. Whoo-hoo. 
• if the merger goes through, 1.7234 shares of AMD for every share of XLNX
• today, at $144.57 (AMD) x 1.7234 = $249.15
• XLNX at $225.70
  

Another one I missed: Trupanion (TRUP). Not related to The Don.

• DWAC: surged yesterday but down today in early trading.

Kellogg: strike over?

• strike has gone on for over two months;
• union has rejected multiple offers
• Kellogg announced yesterday it will start hiring permanent replacements;
• no new talks scheduled (I've heard that before); links everywhere; here's one;
• has anyone noticed any shortage of Kellogg products in the last two months; I have not;
• Kellogg has adequate capacity in Mexico
• Kellogg shares in trading range for past year; generally green; down slightly yesterday
  

Global warming:

• Hawaii reported record cold temperatures yesterday;
• early winter storms hampering Russian oil exports;

Smack-down: but no one will read it or hear about it.

• EQT response to Senator Elizabeth Warren;
• links pending

COP: misleading dividend announcement by MarketBeat.com

• see this post for explanation;

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: last year at this time, we were down to sixteen active rigs in North Dakota; now, we're back to 32. The definitive rig report currently shows 29 active rigs but that's because some rigs are in the process of moving to new sites. 

Active rigs:

$71.72	12/8/2021	12/08/2020	12/08/2019	12/08/2018	12/08/2017
Active Rigs	29	16	55	64	53

No wells coming off confidential list today.

RBN Energy: Very low- and no-carbon alternatives to old-school bunker fuels, part 2.

International shipowners need to significantly reduce their carbon-dioxide emissions by 2030 and will come under pressure to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Given that the industry currently depends almost entirely on fossil fuels for ship propulsion — and that every zero- or near-zero-carbon alternative faces serious headwinds — it won’t be an easy or low-cost transition. One pathway would be expanding the use of LNG as a bunker fuel in the near term and then shifting to alternatives like bio-LNG and synthetic LNG as they become more commercially available and economic. Another would be to use “green” or “blue” hydrogen, ammonia, or methanol. But there are challenges to each, not the least of which are the small volumes of non-traditional fuels being produced — and their high cost — and the need for new infrastructure both to produce and distribute them, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog.

This is the second blog in our series on efforts to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases in the shipping industry, which accounts for about 3% of global GHGs. Previously, we looked at the push by leading international shipping associations and many large shipowners to have the International Maritime Organization (IMO) ratchet up the industry’s decarbonization goals. In effect, shipowners — themselves under pressure from their large, ESG-minded customers, shareholders, and lenders — are telling the IMO that its goals of reducing global shipping’s carbon intensity (CI) by 40% from its 2008 level by 2030 and total GHG emissions by 50% by 2050 are far too timid. They want the IMO to set a more aggressive CI-reduction target for 2030 as well as a goal of eliminating or fully offsetting GHG emissions by mid-century.

Further, a long list of international shipping associations — including the International Chamber of Shipping, Intercargo, and the World Shipping Council — has been pressing for the creation of a $5 billion research-and-development fund to accelerate the advancement and introduction of zero-emission technologies and fuels for maritime transport. If approved, the IMO-administered fund would be financed by a proposed $2-per-metric-ton ($2/MT) levy on all marine-fuel sales. There also have been a number of proposals — by countries, shipping organizations, and individual companies — to implement a levy on shipping companies for each metric ton of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e) their fleets emit.

Bakken Natural Gas Production Surges -- RBN Energy -- August 20, 2020

First things first: Xilinx to supply chips for new Subaru vehicle, Grovel spelled backwards. Are you kidding me? Huge, and XLNX up 0.6% in pre-market trading. Go XLNX! First good news for XLNX in a long time.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

An a-ha! I think one of the reasons investors/traders don't talk about their biggest investing/trading mistakes is because the "rest of the story" is never told. I can kick myself for not holding certain investments through the pandemic, but such discussions fail to take into account what I bought instead. Some of my new positions have been more than stellar, and I bet that's true for many folks who lament having sold off some of their previous holdings.

Geico Rock Award nominee: Steven Liesman notes that the pandemic is hitting mom-and-pop retail really, really bad. That was also the discussion in the swimming pool last night: mom-and-pop retail may not be able to hold on much longer, and with another lock down advocated by the Biden/Harris campaign will be the final nail in that coffin. Geico Rock Award nominees for 2020 are tracked here.

ZeroHedge was on a roll overnight:

• Saudi Arabia embraces Israel-UAE peace deal; amazing, all the things Trump accomplished in less than four years, despite impeachment efforts, constant media lies and fake news;
• bait-and-switch: from "flattening to the curve" to "not one single death" to "cases count, not deaths"
• toeing the line: Sweden refuses to mandate masks; Nordic neighbors re-impose restrictions;
• the vaccine, a fool's errand: Covid-19 pandemic is rolling over; number of US hospitalizations declining at rate of 1% per day; but having said that, Bill Gate is going to really, really, really get rich on this; but that's fine;

Chicago: apparently pandemic hasn't affected government employees yet; but without bailout, mayor threatens furloughs and layoffs;

Biggest non-story of the week: rolling blackouts in southern California. Didn't amount to a hill of beans in the big scheme of things, and entirely preventable. 

Didn't see this coming: world's largest offshore rig owner by fleet size, Valaris Plc, files for bankruptcy. Seeks to offload $7 billion in debt.

OPEC basket, link here: $45.19.

************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$42.50	8/20/2020	08/20/2019	08/20/2018	08/20/2017	08/20/2016
Active Rigs	12	63	58	53	32

Three wells coming off the confidential list -- Thursday, August 20, 2020: 59 for the month; 130 for the quarter, 576 for the year:

• 37077, drl/NC, BR, Cleofill, 1E, Croff, no production data,
  
• 36541, drl/NC, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23A, Capa, no production data,
  
• 35872, AL/NC, Whiting, Fladeland 13-10TFH, Sanish, t--; cum 49K 6/20;
  

The Fladeland wells are tracked here.

RBN Energy: Bakken gas production rebounds, but will it last?

Archived.

Bakken associated gas production volume, after falling to its lowest levels in three years in early May and remaining depressed through June, has surged by 500 MMcf/d, or about 45%, in the past month and a half to 1.7 Bcf/d. 

However, the gains have occurred in the absence of a meaningful change in rig counts or well completion activity, which remains sluggish. 

Similar to the Permian, the Bakken production recovery has been almost entirely driven by existing wells returning to service after being shut in earlier this year in response to the oil price collapse. With little in the way of new drilling and completion activity, how long will it be before natural declines of existing wells begin to take a toll on Bakken output? Today, we examine prospects for continued strength in Bakken gas production volumes.

I think the bigger story, here, is profitability for the oil companies. Read that again:

Natural gas production surged 45% in the past month.   

However, the gains have occurred in the absence of a meaningful change in rig counts or well completion activity, which remains sluggish. 

Huge story. Rigs don't matter. Now, even frack spreads didn't matter. Wow. 

The other big story line: the Bakken is not a natural gas play. 

New record low for well completions and wells drilled in the Permian and the Bakken, Focus on Fracking.

No New Permits; Thirty-Two Active Rigs; AMD/XLNX Surge -- February 1, 2022

AMD: up almost 10% in after-hours trading. Whoo-hoo. Closed at $117; traded at $128 after hours. So, how did XLNX do? Holy mackerel. XLNX also up over 9% after hours. Closed at $198; after-hours surged to $217. AMD earnings beat by 10%; revenues beat by 5%.  

SBUX: up a bit during the day, before earnings announced, but then missed on earnings (citing inflation and Omicron -- didn't AAPL have the same problem -- inflation and Omicron as well as supply chain problems? Down about 2% after hours. Later: this is incredible. SBUX is now trading up! What's up? I don't know but it warms the cockles of my heart. LOL.

PayPay and Block: both down after hours. PayPal down a 16%. Down $30, trading at $147. So, what's the real story. No one has mentioned it yet. The story now being told? Apple. Apple announced it will take all credit cards on its iPhone Wallet, not just its own Apple card. This will severely hit one of the few revenue streams that Block and PayPal have. 

Debbie Downer: yesterday, Melissa's panel on Fast Money all sounded like Debbie Downer. I missed Fast Money today because Sophia and I studied Spanish, read Wings of Fire, and did multiplication flashcards. But it looks like tech is back. I'll replay Melissa on Hulu later tonight. See if anyone eats crow. They won't; they'll change the narrative.

DWAC? I have no clue. Let's look. Holy mackerel! DWAC surged 14% today; up $10 and trading at $83.

Spread? Most interesting story today? WTI and Brent only one dollar apart. 

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$88.20	2/1/2022	02/01/2021	02/01/2020	02/01/2019	02/01/2018
Active Rigs	32	14	54	64	58

 No new permits. Absolutely nothing reported. Did Bismarck have the day off? A winter storm? 

Active rigs: NDIC reports 34 but one was a SWD and one rig is a CCS rig. I didn't check to see if there are any double-counted rigs. So, 32 active rigs for now.

 ********************************
The Book Page

Again, if interested in origin of solar system, earth, fossil fuel, origin of life, this is currently the best new book on the market right now for armchair/amateur biologists, geologists, fossil fuel aficionados. 

• How The Mountains Grew
• John Dvorak
• c. 2021
• Pegasus Books, August 2021

From the book, pages 183 - 185:

Soon after the Morrison Formation ... the Jurassic Period came to an end.

But there is a problem here: what exactly marks the end of the Jurassic and the beginning of the next geologic period, the Cretaceous?

Some geologists maintain that there was a mass extinction that can be used to mark a division between the Jurassic and Cretaceous periods. Others suggest that if an extinction did occur -- and some have questioned it -- the event was limited geographically and was not global in extent, an so cannot be used to distinguish between two geologic periods. In short, not everyone agrees that a sudden shift occurred in the plant's history between these two periods.

Some of the problem seems to be the fault the history of geology (sic). The Cretaceous Period, one of the first geological time periods to be names, was first formally defined in 1822 by d'Ormalius d'Halloy for a thick strata for white chalk cropping out in the Paris Basin; whereas, the Jurassic Period was first introduced in 1829 by Alexandre Brongniart for an unusual set of marine fossils found in the Jura Mountains that run along the France-Switzerland border. Neither man was concerned with defining where the boundary between the two time periods should be located within the rock record. And so two centuries have passes as generations of geologist have struggled with the problem.

Currently members of the International Commission on Stratigraphy have taken a radical step and have abandoned the use of fossil succession to define the boundary -- which is how all other geologic periods of the Phanerozoic Era are defined -- and, instead, are using a change in the Earth's magnetic field. (One could almost feel the hearts of professional geologists being broken when the decision was made. Geologists are a conservative bunch, especially when it comes to defining their holiest scepter, the Geologic Time Scale.)

So, for now, the boundary between the Jurassic and the next geologic period, the Cretaceous, is defined as the top of the normal magnetic polarity stripe known as Chron M19n. It occurred 145.7 million years ago and is coincident with an "explosion" in the number of small, globular microorganisms known as Calpionella alpine that can be found in Mexico and across Central and Eastern Europe -- and so there is reason for the conservatives in the world of geology to hope that the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary, will eventually, be defined by fossil succession. Thus, as this illustrates, a considerable effort goes into precisely defining the boundaries of the Geologic Time Scale. 

But for those who choose to look at the history of the 'Earth through a wider lens, it is sufficient to note that there is a significant change in vegetation between the Jurassic and the Cretaceous periods -- the first flowers and the first broad-leaf trees appeared during the Cretaceous -- and that there is a significant change in the types of animals, including in the types of dinosaurs.

And, as d'Hallow noted, there was a surprisingly large amount of chalk deposited during the Cretaceous period.

Winter Storm Slams Texas -- January 31, 2022

Breaking: WTI now well over $88.00

Now, back to regular programming.

More federal money for North Dakota: North Dakota will receive up to $40 million to clean up abandoned oil and gas wells. Whoo-hoo! It appears only seven states will receive more than North Dakota, but not only is ND in the top seven or eight, it is also at the high end of federal money being disbursed. Link when I get it. Arrived in my e-mail from Department of Interior.

From the department:

The Department of the Interior today announced $1.15 billion in funding is available to states from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to create jobs cleaning up orphaned oil and gas wells across the country. This is a key initiative of President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which allocated a total of $4.7 billion to create a new federal program to address orphan wells. Millions of Americans across the country live within a mile of an orphaned oil and gas well.

Orphaned wells are polluting backyards, recreation areas, and public spaces across the country. The historic investments to clean up these hazardous sites will create good-paying, union jobs, catalyze economic growth and revitalization, and reduce dangerous methane leaks.

“President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law is enabling us to confront the legacy pollution and long-standing environmental injustices that for too long have plagued underrepresented communities,” said Secretary Deb Haaland. “We must act with urgency to address the more than one hundred thousand documented orphaned wells across the country and leave no community behind. This is good for our climate, for the health our communities, and for American workers.” 

Plugging orphaned wells will also help advance the goals of the U.S. Methane Emissions Reduction Action Plan, as well as the Interagency Working Group on Coal and Power Plant Communities and Economic Revitalization, which focuses on spurring economic revitalization in the hard-hit energy communities.

*******************************
Winter Storm Slams Texas

I keep reading all those news stories that a winter storm slammed Texas. 

Well, here's the video.

 *****************************
The Market -- For The Archives

Wow, talk about an afternoon surge. After a slow start this morning, the market is now taking off. I guess mom-and-pop investors are not worried about the Fed raising the rate from 0.00000% to 0.25% or whatever they think it will be. 

My favorite chart:

Link here.

Updated through November 30, 2021. Still at record highs and trending higher. 

XLNX: wow. I've accumulated XLNX for decades. Today, I just happened to see it jumped $13, up over 7%, now trading about $191. This is still not a 52-week high. I wonder how much of this is due to a short squeeze. I think a lot of folks got burned on this one assuming the merger would not take place, after the Chinese delayed it. AMD is up almost $8.

Oil: "all" oil stocks are up.

Commodities are up: SCCO, FCX

AAPL: after soaring last week, up $12/share (?), AAPL is up another $3 / share today after a slow start.

PLUG: is up $2.76 on a $21 stock. Whoo-hoo!

It's hard to find anything that's trading down. If so, pretty much profit taking after recent jump in price. Even EPD is up a bit. LOL. What's ENB doing? Up nicely. EPD reports tomorrow, February 1, 2022, before market open; forecast, 54 cents EPS; "whisper number" is 57 cents.

Holy mackerel, NVDA is up $13. 

SBUX: I've never invested in SBUX and the company if facing a lot of headwinds but I need to diversity out of energy, and I'm seriously thinking of looking at SBUX. I'll wait to see what Jim Cramer has to say this evening. SBUX reports earnings at 5:00 a.m. ET tomorrow morning (February 1, 2022); forecast, 79 cents EPS. The "whisper number" is 82 cents.

ARKK: must be having an incredible day ... let's check ... yup, up 8%. 

S&P 500: up 83 points. Remember, under the 10:1 rule, this would equate to an 800 point jump in the Dow today; just saying.  

Dow: regardless, the Dow was up a remarkable 400 points. Go back and look at my favorite chart.

I'm posting this for the archives for the grandsons and their mother who will end up managing the portfolio after I die. At 75 years of age, I turn the portfolio over to our younger daughter. The twins will be in first or second grade by then, home schooled, majoring in the "3-R's" with a minor in business and investing.  

Prediction: the S&P 500 will hit 4,500 before it hits 4,600.

Note: the above companies fascinate me. I own shares in some but not all. I've been in and out of some of them over the years.  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Fast Money:

• dead cat bounce; expect more volatility; expect to test lows again;
• one day of trading doesn't change the tone of the market; still going to go back down
• sigh of relief, but that's all; be skeptical; last day of the month; simply buying bargains in an over-sold bargain;
• they all sound like "market timers" to me; not long-term investors;
• panelist agrees: this is a "trading show"; not an investing show;
• wow, talk about a lot of "Debbie Downers."
• something tells me Jim Cramer will have a different take;
• so they start off with: ARKK; TSLA; ZOOM;, Teladoc; Roku; none of them on my radar scope, though I did go off the reservation last year and started a position in ARKK; sold before end of year;
• and, then having said that, one of the panelists is bullish on Teladoc;
• another one? Trimble
• another one? Palantir
• it seems if one is willing to go down that road; there are a lot better companies to look at;
• enough of this; moving on; next up, Mad Money

Mad Money:

• unlike the Fast Money folks, Jim Cramer makes a case for a bull market for most commodities, and the S&P
• I agree with Jim Cramer's "case" for a bull market, but with a huge pullback, probably during the summer 
• Cramer never mentioned the mid-term elections but hard to believe we would see a recession prior to the mid-terms
  

*****************************
Jason Day And The Early Morning Club

From The WSJ: 

I’m writing this column at 4 a.m., but I need to level with you: It’s nowhere near as romantic as that sounds. I am not sitting in a hotel lobby, tuxedo bow tie unfurled, cigar smoldering in an ashtray, pecking at an old Underwood typewriter after a long night out with movie stars, rock gods and other assorted fabulous people.

The truth is I fell asleep last night right after reading to my kids. I passed out shortly before 9 p.m. with a copy of “Friendship According to Humphrey,” about a class pet hamster trying to adapt to a new frog in the room, resting atop my chest. (It’s a fun read. Humphrey is adorbs.)

I’m awake because over the past two years, I’ve joined a new club: the very, very early morning club. I know a lot of people have lives and jobs that require them to wake up extremely early, but this is a new lifestyle for me. It took two small children and one pandemic that kept us all home to figure out that if I was going to continue to be productive, and write nonsense humor columns like this one, I was going to need to be productive at an uncommon hour, sitting alone in the dark. 

I'll expand on this later. 

******************************
Book Recommendation

Again, if interested in origin of solar system, earth, fossil fuel, origin of life, this is currently the best new book on the market right now for armchair/amateur biologists, geologists, fossil fuel aficionados. 

• How The Mountains Grew
• John Dvorak
• c. 2021
• Pegasus Books, August 2021

From the book, pages 145 - 147:

The Permian: why did so much oil accumulate in such a small region of the continent?

• Burial of phytoplankton and zooplankton, often cyanobacteria or foraminifera -
• buried in mud and silt; anaerobic (sealed off from oxygen); sealed off from decomposition by bacteria; the organic matter would change chemically into a waxy substance known as kerogen
  if burial continues; kerogen would turn into oil
• the deeper the sediment, the higher the temperature, the move from natural gas to oil
• the sweet spot in temperature, the "oil window," is between 140° and 250° Fahrenheit which corresponds to a burial range of five thousand to twenty thousand fee.
• but it must be trapped: impermeable rock layers of salt or gypsum or similar material
• the Permian Basin met those conditions,and it me them multiple times
• most oil-rich regions ahve one or two places in the rock sequence (strata, formations, subformations)
• the Bakken has a dozen +/-
  in the Permian Basin there are eleven such strata 
• Midland:
• multiple "plays" in the Wolfcamp Shale or the Bone Springs Formation
• if it these multiple oil plays that gives West Texas the distinction of having one of the largest -- if not the largest -- reservoir in the world
• which raises the next question: why were these conditions met multiple times in the Permian Basin?
• the answer: it was a consequence of the collision of Euramerica and Gondwana and the formation of the supercontinent, Pangea.

To be continued in a future blog.