Monday, March 10, 2025

The Sixth Industrial Revolution -- March 10, 2025

Locator: 48488TECH.

Robotics, humanoid: link here.

Amazon, creepy but this is where we are already. Link here.

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Five New Permits; Three Minnkota Power Cooperative Permits Renewed -- March 10, 2025

Locator: 48489B.

US equity market: worst day for the NASDAQ this year?

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $65.90.

Active rigs: 30.

Five new permits, #41687 - #41691, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hess (3); CLR (2)
  • Fields: Ellsworth (McKenzie); North Tioga (Burke)
  • Comments:
  • CLR has permits for two Sibbern Federal wells, NWNW 23-160-94; to be sited 950 FNL and 952 / 984 FWL;
  • Hess has permits for three Cushing wells, SWNW 33-149-100, to be sited 1176 FWL and 2103/2137/2136 FNL

Three permits renewed:

  • Minnkota Power Cooperative: Liberty 1, Unity 1, and McCall 2, all in Oliver County; all are wildcats;
    • Liberty 1, SWNW 4-141-83;
    • Unity 1, SWNW 4-141-83; and,
    • McCall 1 SWNW 4-141-83
  • so, all three in section 4-141-83, and all three in same quadrant, SWNW; and all three are wildcat wells.
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Apple -- The M4 Ultra Chip -- March 10, 2025

Locator: 48487APPLE.

X is down: has been up and down since 5:00 a.m. local time this morning. Now fully down -- I am unable to access x. Let the conspiracy theories begin. [Later: the "downdetector" gauge show the problem is getting worse, not better.]

Apple: here's why Apple isunlikely to release an M4 Ultra chip for Macs. Link here. 

The new Mac Studio is available with mismatched M4 Max and M3 Ultra chip options. Will there be an M4 Ultra chip in the future, though? It looks unlikely.

Here are three reasons why Apple might never release an M4 Ultra chip.

First, among Apple's line of Mac chips, the highest-end Ultra chips are effectively two Max chips fused together with a technology called UltraFusion. So, the M1 Ultra chip is two M1 Max chips combined, and the M2 Ultra chip is two M2 Max chips combined. However, Apple confirmed that the M4 Max chip lacks an UltraFusion connector, so that means Apple cannot simply release a doubled-up M4 Ultra chip this time around.

Second, Apple told several journalists and YouTubers that not every generation of Mac chips will have an "Ultra" chip. The timing of Apple revealing this information suggests that we might never get an M4 Ultra chip.

 And third, from Mark Gurman, Bloomberg: Apple is reluctant to develop an M4 Ultra chip from scratch due to production challenges, costs, and the relatively small sales volume of its desktop computers, like the Mac Studio. So, that seems to rule out the only other way in which Apple could have released an M4 Ultra chip.

Wiki's transistor count has not been updated in quite some time despite huge "gains" by Apple. Most likely this is due to the fact that "transistor count" is fully out of date. Transistor count is simply one "spec" point. Think:

  • power consumption
  • battery life
  • integrated chips (GPU<->CPU)
  • efficiency cores
  • performance cores
  • neural engines
  • hardware-accelerated ray tracing 
  • ability to drive multiple "dumb" displays 
  • transistor count
  • stacked chips
  • AI-focus
  • satellite connectivity

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.     
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Manic Monday -- Again -- March 10, 2025

Locator: 48486B.

X is down: has been up and down since 5:00 a.m. local time this morning. Now fully down -- I am unable to access x. Let the conspiracy theories begin. [Later: the "downdetector" gauge show the problem is getting worse, not better.]

Victor Davis Hanson: no one is ready for what comes next. Must-watch.

Victor Davis Hanson: Mexico, MeToo no more, the Left's meager pickin's. Must-watch.

GDPNow: latest estimate, 1Q25, -2.4%. Link here.

Recession: Trump refuses to r/o a recession under his watch. It takes awhile for these things to happen, and sometimes longer for them to correct. Thus, might the US be in a severe recession going into the mid-term elections? 

Most important date for investors: May 31, 2026.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $66.34.

New wells:

  • Tuesday, March 11, 2025: 31 for the month, 147 for the quarter, 147 for the year, 
    • 40446, conf, Grayson Mill, Alfred South 20-22-5H,
    • 39951, conf, Hess, EN-Wefald-156-24-2413H-4,
  • Monday, March 10, 2025: 29 for the month, 145 for the quarter, 145 for the year,
    • 40859, conf, BR, West Ranch 4D-MBH-ULW-B,
    • 40445, conf, Grayson Mill, Alfred South 20-22 4H,
    • 41035, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 7C,
    • 26467, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 150-99-13-24-4H,
    • 25271, conf, Grayson Mill, Holm 150-99-13-24-2H,
    • 25270, conf, Grayson Mill, Holm 150-99-13-24-3H,
  • Sunday, March 9, 2025: 23 for the month, 139 for the quarter, 139 for the year, 
    • 40472, conf, Hess, GO-John-156-98-0508H-5,
    • 26468, conf, Grayson Mill, Scott 150-99-13-24-5H,
  • Saturday, March 8, 2025: 21 for the month, 137 for the quarter, 137 for the year,
    • None.

RBN Energy: tech giants increasingly turning to natural gas to power data centers. 

Archived here. Lede here.

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Early Production Data

The wells:

  • 40472, conf, Hess, GO-John-156-98-0508H-5, Wheelock, t9/24; cum 136K 1/25; F:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2025312389223947345164307942612467
BAKKEN12-2024312819628095430304436243793569
BAKKEN11-2024222033720356314142721026819391
BAKKEN10-20242832229322702936473435718291606
BAKKEN9-20242031227310304668861978607781200
  • 40445, conf, Grayson Mill, Alfred South 20-22 4H, Elk, t9/24; cum 138K 1/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2025241884819047423271833717348902
BAKKEN12-202431372873723178098397912760712015
BAKKEN11-20243030359303977993729203220647003
BAKKEN10-20242830380303128140731845862323048
BAKKEN9-20242021052207577466922499022389
BAKKEN8-20240000000
BAKKEN7-20240000000
BAKKEN6-20240000000

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Sunday, March 9, 2025

RBN Energy -- Tech Giants Increasingly Turning To Natural Gas To Power Data Centers -- March 9, 2025

Locator: 48485LDCS.

RBN Energy: tech giants increasingly turning to natural gas to power data centers. 

Archived here.

The pace of announcements for planned data centers accelerated in 2024 and has continued to gather steam in 2025, with natural gas-fired power plants emerging as a frequent choice, along with nuclear power, to provide the around-the-clock electricity that large-scale data centers want and need. In today’s RBN blog, the first in a series, we’ll detail plans by several well-known energy firms to construct new gas-fired plants that would produce electricity specifically for data centers. 

Let’s start with some data-center basics. As we discussed in Storm Front, a data center (see photo below) is the home for hundreds or even thousands of networked computers that process, store and share data. Data centers — many of them owned and operated by tech giants — are among the most energy-intensive building types, consuming up to 50 times the energy per square foot of a typical commercial office building, with electrical demand at larger facilities ranging from 100 megawatts (MW) to 2,000 MW. (For perspective, as we noted in Just Can’t Get Enough, a city the size of Lubbock, TX, — population 267,000 — only requires about 700 MW.) Demand for data centers has grown exponentially with the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) tools like ChatGPT and Perplexity, which require far more computational power — and energy — than conventional Google searches.

The Interior of an Amazon Data Center

The Interior of an Amazon Data Center. Source: Amazon

Why Natural Gas?

As we noted in Dive In, the main reason firms are considering natural gas to power their data centers is that it is a consistent source of round-the-clock power and can be deployed at scale, usually within a reasonable period of time. Recent headlines for power deals indicate that tech firms are willing to pay up for power — as long as it is reliable — so while gas generation is relatively cheap, that’s more of an added benefit rather than the key feature.

Importantly, gas-fired generation generally can be deployed relatively quickly, allowing for solutions that are quick and nimble. A case in point is a data center in Memphis, TN, where 14 mobile gas-fired generators were brought in to help power a 150-MW facility being developed by Elon Musk’s xAI. (We’ll discuss this development and mobile generators in more detail in Part 2.) In contrast, while the buzz around nuclear is surging due to its reliability and the fact that it doesn’t produce GHGs, it is more expensive to build and has higher hurdles to clear than gas, with years of permitting headaches and construction in the best of circumstances (see We’ll Be Together). 

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