Headlines -- July 16, 2024

 Locator: 48159ARCHIVES.

What a great country. I dropped off several extended family members and friends at DFW airport on way to Montana.

I came home and went swimming -- a nice evening swim; my second swim of the day.

Tracked that flight on FlightRadar24.

CCR, Lana Del Rey, and Blondie on Bluetooth speaker while swimming.

Came home to catch two minutes of Nikki Haley at RNC Convention, ABC coverage. The ABC "analysts" seem flummoxed -- not exactly knowing how to handle the speeches. LOL. There's no way the DNC convention will be more entertaining inside. Outside, perhaps, but not inside. The DNC Convention inside will be Biden, Jill, Shumer, Pelosi, Clooney et al. Booooring. The RNC convention? One big clown show and I say that with sincerity and deep respect for clowns around the world.

After two minutes switched to the All-Star Game. AL wins 5 - 3. Lots of fun.

Not a bit hungry -- hadn't eaten since lunch, hours ago, but after a swim, often not a bit hungry. 

Settled for half-a-summer-sausage sandwich. 

80+°F outside -- our thermostat is set for 80°F also and after a swim, it feels almost "cold" in the house, but my wife won't let me turn the thermsotat up any more.

Now to check the news, the equity futures, and pretty much relax until 1:00 a.m. Have to get another Duolingo Spanish lesson in, both before midnight and after midnight to keep my streak going.

Matt Strahm, West Fargo High School, ND --> to the All-Star Game. Wow! He's thinking the same thing -- what a great country. He's 32 years old. It seems he's played with almost every MLB team (not quite) but now plays with the Phillies. Quite a journey.

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Headlines

NDIC Director's Cut: link here. Oil production down 3.9% m/m.

Bitcoin back over $66,000 today; quite a chart.

AAPL is now outperforming both the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) and the S&P 500 (SPY) so far in 2024. Dan Nathan, over at CNBC, probably won't mention this.

Elon Musk has had it with California. Will move X and SpaceX headquarters from California to either Florida or Texas. Maybe one to Florida, one to Texas, or better yet, both to Texas. Which would make the most sense. Oh, there it is. He's moving both to Texas! Whoo-hoo! Musk says he has also moved his residence to Texas. Another whoo-hoo! California-to-Texas relocation tracked by clicking here. The full list here. Or go direct.

Charles Schwab says it's time to fix its banking business. Has to do with "cash sorting."

Biden's plans to overhaul the US Supreme Court sounds like the talk of a desperate man. This is so bizarre ...

Trump is no friend of Taiwan ... wow, one thing you can say about Trump .... he wants to make American great again. Screw the rest of the world even if it means Russia and China win a few regional wars. Warren Buffett may have known what he was doing when he dropped his TSM stock like a hot potato after only three months. LOL. After awhile, all Americans may end up liking Trump -- after all it was Hillary and Bill that took the US down the path of "globalism."

Even a cynic has to admit this is pretty remarkable:

Ditto:

The Russell 2000 just had its best day compared to the S&P 500 ... ever.

Tom Lee makes absurd calls over and over and over. And then he's right.

BRK-B: wow, talk about perfect timing. Pivoted back to BRK-B a few days ago; again, see Personal Investing. Rambling below; may be inaccurate; if important to you, go to the source (the IRS). Everything needs to be fact-checked.

No new money is going into my accounts. All new money is going to grandchildren. In addition, gradually moving money from existing personal accounts to grandchildren's accounts, so when I say I pivoted to BRK-B, it means I bought BRK-B with new money for at least one of the grandchildren's accounts. In this case, it was for Sophia. I'm done investing in (adding new money to) my accounts. My accounts are on auto-pilot except for a two self-directed IRAs in which I make trades. 

RMDs, for the most part, are going in to tax-deferred 529s for the five grandchildren. After fifteen years, the 529's can be converted to Roth IRAs. Almost no limit on number of 529s for owner or beneficiary; I guess the limit for any one beneficiary would be 50 or thereabouts. LOL. It's unclear but it sounds like each 529 can be converted to a Roth IRA -- one can do the math. Five grandchildren x $35K = $175,000, just to get started. And one knows, with inflation, Congress will increase that $35,000 limit.

CLR Brakken Permits Renewed -- July 16, 2024

 Locator: 48158B.

The renewals were in the NDIC daily active report dated July 16, 2024.

Four permits renewed:

• CLR: four Brakken FIU permits, SENW 7-153-100; Catwalk; Williams County; the Brakken wells are tracked here;

 

Dow 30 Surges More Than 700 Points; All Major Indices Green; Russell 2000 Particularly Interesting -- July 16, 2024

 Locator: 48157INV.

At the close / near the close:

Only two news items in last 24 hours:

• Trump names JD Vance as his VP nominee; and,
• JPow strongly signals a "Fed cut" sooner than later.
  

After 300 points today, the rest was due to short covering.

None of it was money coming from the sidelines. 

So, from where was the money coming? Rotation. Movers and shakers were taking their profits in the "magnificent seven" and moving to Dow components.

We'll see that when "my favorite chart" is updated in the next few days or so. 

The Buffett indicator: if the indicator sounded an alarm five days ago, imagine how long and how loud the alarm is today! OMG! Link here. And if the Fed cuts rates, the indicator will only get worse. Buffett indicator here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $80.82. Barely held above $80.

Active rigs: 39.

Six new permits, #40925 - #40930, inclusive:

• Operators: Enerplus (5); Oasis
• Fields: Jim Creek (Dunn County); Arnegard (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Oasis has a permit for a Sapphire well, lot 2, section 31-150-100; 
• to be sited 2414 FNL and 521 FWL;
• Enerplus has permits for five Fischer wells, SESW 29-145-96; 
• to be sited 354 FSL and between 2268 FWL and 2408 FWL;

Four permits renewed:

• CLR: four Brakken FIU permits, SENW 7-153-100; Catwalk; Williams County; the Brakken wells are tracked here;
  

Three permits canceled:

• Northwester Production LLC: three TMW wells, Billings County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) completed:

• 40006, 794, Slawson, Thor 2-31-30H,
• 40009, 661, Slawson, Thor 5-31-30H,

Inflation Watch -- All Three Grocers Within Five-Minute Bike Or Car -- July 16, 2014

Locator: 48156APPLE.

Eggs:

• Target, a dozen: "new low price" -- $2.67
• Kroger, a dozen: 99 cents
• Tom Thumb / Albertsons: 18-count: $1.77 (= $1.18 / dozen)
• Kroger and Tom Thumb: less than a dime / egg -- most expensive item I have for breakfast, except K-cup coffee at 50 cents to 67 cents / cup

Target continues to be the high price grocer. 

Apple, TSM Update -- July 16. 2024

Locator: 48155APPLE.

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Disclaimer Briefly Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

Link here. 

Some of the data points:

• MacRumors contributor is quibbling over 1H25 vs 2H25. Oh, give me a break!
• the bigger story: we're talking about 2-nm (2 nm, 2nm);
• the iPhone 17 will still use the 3-nm process! OMG! The 3-nm process -- how will Apple ever survive (by the way, the folks that know have moved on to new metrics -- moving away from "x-nm" being the be-all and end-all).

This is the most important paragraph in that story: 

TSMC plans to begin volume production of 2nm chips next year, but multiple reports out of Taiwan suggested that the company had been accelerating the process ahead of schedule to secure a stable yield for mass production. Apple is TSMC's main client, and it is typically the first to get TSMC's new chips. Apple acquired all of TSMC's 3nm chips in 2023 for iPhones, iPads, and Macs, for example.

Repeating that in bold:

• 2nm chips (to put that in perspective, Intel threw in the towel at 10 nm);
• accelerating the process (which means exactly what it suggests; TSM is completing their new facilities on time or ahead of schedule)
• secure a stable yield for mass production (mass production, not risk production)
• Apple is TSMC's main client
• Apple is generally the first to get TSMC's new chips
• Apple acquired all of TSMC's 3nm chips in 2023

The next two paragraphs, background:

The 2nm fabrication process, also known simply as "N2," is expected to offer a 10 to 15 percent speed improvement at the same power or a 25 to 30 percent power reduction at the same speed compared to chips made with the supplier's ‌3nm‌ technology. The A17 Pro chip in Apple's iPhone 15 Pro models is manufactured with TSMC's first-generation 3nm process, known as N3B. Apple's M4 chip, which recently debuted in the new iPad Pro, uses an enhanced version of this ‌3nm‌ technology.

Code in iOS 18 has confirmed that all four iPhone 16 models are set to use Apple's next-generation A18 chip, based on TSMC's N3E process. N3E is TSMC's second-generation 3nm chip fabrication process, which is less expensive and has improved yield compared to TSMC's first-generation 3nm process.

No analyst on CNBC has yet mentioned 2 nm, 3 nm, N2, N3, and until they do, those Apple analysts interest me not.

Only one CNBC contributor has mentioned M4 and that came out of left field. Literally from an analyst who probably doesn't even know what CPUs cores or threads are.