The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- I'm Off To Bed -- I Won't See E-Mail / Comments Until Tomorrow -- March 8, 2023

So, tonight, while watching "Jason Bourne" for the umpteenth time, I wanted to update some Bakken wells. 

I randomly chose 2Q12.

I went to the very first well at that site.

Here is the well:

• 21034, 3,499, Grayson Mill/Statoil/BEXP, Bugs 27-22 1H, Poe, Bakken, t3/12; cum 278K 5/18; off-line as of 5/18; cum 375K 12/22; and, off line once again.

Here is recent production (I can't make this stuff up), 15K over 22 days extrapolates to 20K over 30 days:

 

ool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2023	0	0	245	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	22	15105	15049	33966	29708	173	29535
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	14531	14370	52561	27960	1383	26577
BAKKEN	10-2022	5	780	752	9926	1985	0	1985
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	69	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	10	388	441	672	2259	1576	667
BAKKEN	4-2022	22	826	817	2101	6653	5871	710
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	1264	1227	3451	10324	10208	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	1143	1145	1115	10894	10439	347
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	1508	1559	182	14108	12823	1161

I'm Sleeping Well Tonight -- AXP Just Increased Its Dividend 15% -- March 8, 2023

My hunch: Warren Buffett has better "intel" than the Biden administration. LOL. 

AXP: wow, wow, wow. American Express (AXP) just increased its dividend from 52 cents to 60 cents (that's a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend) -- Warren Buffett will sleep well tonight. LOL. Laser focused on dividends. Go ahead and invest in bonds; I'm sticking with equities. LOL. [Later: QCOM is also raising its quarterly dividend,]

Marketing: we need more "Boar's Head" commercials and fewer "woke" commercials.  

Another hunch: 44,000 hours of "January 6" video was released to "Tucker" on one condition -- Tucker was to report "January 6" without bias -- if reported "with bias," McCarthy would release the 44,000 hours to ABC, CBS, and NBC. Fight's on. 

Biden's tax proposals: I fully support.  

Jason Bourne: one can never watch "Jason Bourne" too many times. LOL.

Alexa: knows exactly what I like.

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Summer Project

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For The Archives

If I had my life to live over again, I would have spent more time in England and Scotland. 

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- March 8, 2023

Link here.

• US crude oil in storage decreased by 1.7 million bbls; at 478.5 million bbls, the amount of crude oil in storage is 7% above the five-year average; tell me again why we're worried about the SPR?
• US crude oil in storage now out to 31.9 days, a "recent" record
• if "push comes to shove" the frackers can re-fill the SPR in weeks
  
• US crude oil imports: yawn.
• US refiners operated at 86.0% of their operable capacity.
• Distillate fuel inventories increased by 100,000 bbls last week; and remain 7% below the rive-year average;
• jet fuel supplied was up 2.1% compared to the same four-week period last year.

Gasoline demand, link here. It's getting better.

Compare the graph above with the graph of December 18, 2019, just weeks before Covid-19 lockdowns:

Notice: July, 2019, we peaked out at about 9.7 million bpd. We're closing in on that number once again, and it's only March, and EVs have made record inroads.

US crude oil, days off supply, link here:

• at 31.9 days, this is the four week in a row that number of days of crude oil in storage has increased.
• at 31.9 days, trending toward five weeks.
  

Oasis With Four New Permits; Two Permits Canceled; Nineteen Permits Renewed -- March 8, 2023

AAPL: with the horde of cash that Apple, Inc, continues to build, a reader asked what Apple, Inc, is likely to buy / acquire in the future. I would have no idea; Apple tends to acquire relatively small tech companies that occupy a particular niche. Wiki provides a list of mergers and acquisitions by Apple.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $76.55.

Natural gas: $2.594.

Four new permits, #39704 - #39707, inclusive:

• Operator: Oasis
• Field: Deep Water Creek Bay (McLean County)
• Comments:
• Oasis has permits for foru MHA Moose wells inn SWSE 7-150-90, 
• to be sited 1008 FSL and between 2200 FEL and 2335 FEL

Two permits canceled:

• Liberty Resources: two Elroy permits in Williams County, Temple oil field;

Nineteen permits renewed:

• BR (11): Five Gorhman permits, Bailey oil field, Dunn County; three CCU Badger permits, Corral Creek, McKenzie County; two Saddle Butte permits, North Fork, McKenzie County; one Curtis permit, North Fork, McKenzie County;
• Zavanna (6): six Shorthorn permits in Williams County, Stockyard Creek;
• Petroshale (2): two Bear Chase North permits inn McKenzie County, Spotted Horn oil field;

EV Update -- March 8, 2023

Tracking

EVs: in round numbers --

• 2022:
• F: sold 61,575 EVs in 2022: became the second-largest EV manufacturer in the US, behind Tesla
• F-150 Lightning price:
• $40K to $92K
  
• GM:
• sold fewer than 25,000 EVs in 2022
• 2023:
• Tesla: 1.1 million EVs
• F: 500,000 EVs -- original estimate
  
• run rate
• F-150 Lightning: 150,000 annual run rate
• on track to triple production y/y
• sold 3,600 through February, 2023
• list price: $52K to $97K
  
• Mustang Mach-E: 210,000 annual run rate
  
• GM:
• to deliver 400,000 EVs by end of 2023, link here; 
• will build a third factory to build the Silverado EV
• currently: Factory Zero and the Orion assembly plant
  
• 2026:
• Tesla:
• F: 2 million
• GM:

EVs: link here. Scorecard. 

• cash burn

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ICU

The next twelve months look like it could be "make it or break it" for a number EV manufacturers with the new Fed policy: "higher, sooner, longer." 

Rivian's offering:

• $1.3 billion
• 4.625%
• will settle March 10, 2023
• due 2029

Links.

• Lordstown:
• Lordstown: critical, in ICU, needs partner to survive. Link here. March 7, 2023, one day ago.
• Lordstown CEO: setback, disappointing. Link here. March 6, 2023, two days ago.
• Lordstown: delivered just six EV pickups before shutting down. Link here. March 6, 2023, two days ago.

• Ford EV division: 
• Ford: production halt buried deep in article, March 3, 2023. Production set to begin again on March 13 2023. 
• Ford: published on/about March 3, 2023; fails to mention that Ford had temporarily shut down EV production. 
• Ford and GM: February 28, 2023 -- both Ford EV and GM have shut down pickup production -- for different reasons. Link here.

• Market today, mid-day:
• Lordstown (RIDE): down another 7.5% today.
• Nikola: down 2%.
• ARVL: down 9.3%.
• LCID: up slightly.
• RIVN: up 3%.
• FSR: down 1.3%.
• F: flat, slightly green

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Market

So, with the new Fed policy, "much higher sooner, much longer," how did the EV manufacturers do yesterday, Tuesday, March 8, 2023? (For 52 weeks):

• F: down 1%. (A high of $17.80; now trading for $12.98).
• RIVN: down 15%. (A high of $56.76; now trading for $14.64). All-time high: $172.01.
• RIDE: down 4%. (A high of $3.79; now trading for $0.98). All-time high: $29.01.
• LCID: down 6%. (A high of $28.14; now trading for $8.31). All-time high: %55.21.
• ARVL: down 4%. (A high of $4.13; now trading for $0.24). All-time high: $31.54.
• GOEV: down 7%. (A high of $6.25; now trading for $0.65). All-time high: $20.28.
• TSLA: down 3%. (A high of $384; now trading for $188).
• NKLA: down 5%. (A high of $11.87; now trading for $1.95). All-time high: $65.
• FSR: down 4%.  (A high of $14.74; now trading for $7.40); All-time high: $28.50.