Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Seven Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; Lori Lightfoot Out As Chicago Mayor -- February 28, 2023

SRE: whoo-hoo -- SRE is up over 4% pre-market -- although that's after a drop yesterday -- this $124-stock is trading for $154

  • dividend increase, from $1.145 to $1.19; pays 3.17%; link here.
  • SRE beat EPS estimates, but revenues fell y/y
  • link here:

SRE fourth-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.35, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.06 by 14.1%. The bottom line also increased 8.8% from $2.16 in the prior-year quarter.

Barring one-time items, the company generated GAAP earnings of $1.39 per share compared with $1.90 in the fourth quarter of 2021.

For 2022, the company reported an adjusted EPS of $9.21, which increased 9.3% year over year. Earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.90 per share by 3.5%.
In the quarter under review, Sempra’s total revenues of $3,455 million decreased 10.1% year over year on lower contributions from Energy-related businesses (down 88.7%) and the Electric business (down 0.8%). Moreover, the top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,815 million by 9.4%

Inflation and the Fed: a really, really nice interview on CNBC this morning with a former Fed governor -- went a long way to explain why inflation was not transitory and why the Fed misunderstood that and why the Fed pivoted and explained why inflation is persistent. The former Fed governor's explanation really does support supply and demand, "too many dollars chasing too few goods."

And other headlines:

Comments:

Watch the US market when the Fed starts to hint that a 4% inflation rate is "perfectly reasonable" to consider. Talking heads today on CNBC seem to be suggesting as much.

Tea leaves: one and done in March. Another 25 basis points and that’s it for the year as long as core inflation continues to trend down.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $76.57.

Natural gas: $2.749.

Thursday, March 2, 2023: 10 for the month; 172 for the quarter, 172 for the year
39083, conf, CLR, Woodrow 2-32H,
38747, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-13H,
38346, conf, Enerplus, Court 149-92-31D-30H,

Wednesday, March 1, 2023: 7 for the month; 169 for the quarter, 169 for the year
39160, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Huber 13-1H,
39085, conf, CLR, Woodrow 4-32H,
39084, conf, CLR, Woodrow 3-32H1,
39056, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 14H,
38746, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-4H,
38745, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-12H,
38417, conf, Liberty Resources, AZ W 158-93-13-24-1MBH,

RBN Energy: with sanctions in place, Russia's oil-and-refining sector faces a slow, steady decline. Archived.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 set off a wave of repercussions in energy markets and economies the world over. The hope of the U.S. and its allies has been that international pressure and mounting sanctions would cause Russia to swiftly end the war — or at least make it very difficult to finance. But while the war rages on and Russia seems to be coping with the short-term impacts reasonably well, the long-term effects on its energy sector could be much more significant. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how Russia’s twin challenges — finding buyers for its crude oil and its refined products — are more different than they might seem and why Russia’s oil-and-refining sector is in the early stages of a sustained slowdown.

Movie Night -- Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Without question, I'm a sucker for ... good story-telling. And when it comes to classic movies no one does it better than TCM. And I'm a sucker for TCM. 

There's a lot more to TCM than I bet most folks realize.The presenters are first rate and they keep getting better. Alicia Malone has perhaps changed the most (for the better) over the year. Eddie Muller is in his element, and, of all the presenters, probably is the most cognizant of the importance of TCM, though I wouldn't want that taken out of context.

Tonight was the first time I read closely the history of TCM over at wiki. It makes me love it even more. What a gift Ted Turner left us. 

The first ninety seconds of "The Major and The Minor" and I'm already hooked. LOL. Preceded by "The Palm Beach Story" which I loved. 

Inflation And The Price Of Tattoos -- February 28, 2023

One can start here. Or here -- originally written in 2018 but updated in 2023.

Inflation Watch -- February 28, 2023

 Wow, wow, wow -- eggs!

Eggs:

  • had been running at $5.59 for the past several weeks (months);
  • today, at Target: $3.29 for a dozen white eggs
  • wow
  • on February 23, 2023, an article in The WSJ predicted this (LOL)

Eggs:

  • by the way, speaking of eggs, from 2015:

McCormick crushed red pepper, for pizza:

  • $6.15 for a huge bottle, 3x their normal size, 1.5 oz
  • store brand: 1.5 oz for $1.19 (or $3.58 vs $6.15)

Soft drinks, 2-liter:

  • my favorite drink at McDonald's: Diet Dr Pepper
  • at home, Diet Coke
  • makes no sense? Don't ask, I don't know.
  • Diet Coke: $2.99 at Market Street;
  • Diet Coke: $2.59 at Target
  • Diet Dr Pepper: $2.19 at Target
  • from now on, Diet Dr Pepper at home; 
  • $2.99 vs $2.19 per 2-liter bottle; that's almost a dollar/bottle savings

Bread:

  • brand name $3.99 or more
  • white, no-name bread: $1.49

Canola oil:

  • Crisco: $5.29 for one of those 48-oz bottles
  • store brand, same size: $3.89

Frozen turkey: Walmart

  • 98 cents / lb

Spirits (at Total Wine and More -- I didn't buy either scotch/vodka -- just noting; was there to buy sake)

  • scotch: the price I would pay if I bought scotch: $35 -- it's rare for me to buy scotch any more; too expensive
  • Texas vodka (Tower): normally $12.99 for typical size bottle (750 ml); $5 off; now $7.99 -- I don't drink vodka either with very rare exceptions.

21st Century: America's Century -- February 28, 2023

21st Century -- America's Century! US LNG: link here.

China: being reported at Fox News today. Huge story. I first read about it in Peter Zeihan's new book. This is quite remarkable. Last month, January, 2023, it was not viewed as a crisis: some now see it as a crisis. What is the fastest way for Beijng to solve this problem? If only.


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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $77.05.

Natural gas: $2.747.

One new permit, #39689:

  • Operator: WPX Energy
  • Fields: Moccasin Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • WPX has a permit for an Augustus well, SENE 26-148-93; 
      • to be sited 1333 FNL and 528 FEL.

Four DUCs reported as completed:

  • 38657, 1,176, CLR, LCU Ralph 10-27H1X,
  • 38660, 993, CLR,  LCU Reckitt 10-22H1X,
  • 38661, 1,311, CLR, LCU Reckitt 11-22HX,
  • 34771, n/d, XTO, Lonnie Federal 31X-3D, drilled in 17 days; reached TD, on June 6, 2019; the MB seam was 32' thick; the horizontal was within the target zone 100%; FracFocus has not yet posted frack data;

Well of interest:

  • 16328, IA/313, XtO, Marmon Hahn 44X-3, Hofflund, t1/07; t1/07; cum 354K 10/22; off line 11/22;