Sunday, February 26, 2023

An Enerplus Well Drilled In 2011 Has Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 26, 2023

The well:

  • 18545, 1,676, ERF, Ethan Hall 6B-7-1H, Moccasin Creek, Bakken, t2/11; cum 447K 4/19; back on line 3/19 after being off line for quite some time; cum 482K 5/21; cum 499K 12/22;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202225835830161947496385
BAKKEN11-2022301053102410690081928
BAKKEN10-20223110281020291490263169
BAKKEN9-2022301055104841544431279
BAKKEN8-202231985100651158949246
BAKKEN7-20223196794132563552345
BAKKEN6-20223010761090292100189448
BAKKEN5-20222910961085316102050
BAKKEN4-2022291019100640397785445
BAKKEN3-202231121012357561309117456
BAKKEN2-202225840821447119270838

A CLR Wildcat Drilled Back In 2011 Trending Toward 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 26, 2023

It will still be a few more months to officially go over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative, but ...

The well:

  • 19424, (1,984) 662, CLR, Bud 1-19H, Wildcat (about 3 miles south of Stockyard Creek), Bakken, t3/11; cum 438K 4/19; huge jump 8/17; no re-frack; see this post; cum 492K 12/22;

Recent production: 

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2022318709531001605656370
BAKKEN11-2022308087971034641560100
BAKKEN10-2022318638201106689764780
BAKKEN9-2022308857761075676163560
BAKKEN8-20223199010981200668662670
BAKKEN7-202231103911081268637059510
BAKKEN6-20223097779311525505504260
BAKKEN5-20223194511201066497045880

Halo Effect Observed In Old Hunt Oil Halliday Well -- February 26, 2023

Well, well, well, look at this. 

The newer Hunt Oil Halliday wells are coming off confidential list this week.

Look at this old Halliday well:

  • 19401, 415, Hunt, Halliday 1-15-22H1, Lake Ilo, t1/11; cum 228K 4/19; cum 248K 5/21; cum 277K 12/22;

Reccent production: 

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2022251940178756826003500
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-2022303620000
BAKKEN9-2022309077913422595428537720
BAKKEN8-20221998889569241764323386675
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-20222095853970
BAKKEN5-20223163558516496532050
BAKKEN4-20222957364714874901770
BAKKEN3-20223183971715108122540
BAKKEN2-20222859067913627272400
BAKKEN1-20223173570014076722210
BAKKEN12-20213174273116527862340
BAKKEN11-20213069268116897322150

Devon -- 4Q22

At current return:
  • 0.20 +0.60 = 0.89 x 4 = $3.56
  • $3.56 / 55 = 6.47%

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.


Devon says it will maintain its proposed drilling program for 2023 down to $40 / bbl
. Link here.

Let's take a look at the rest of that NGI story.

By the way, before we get started, remember all the news stories less than three months ago that shale operators were going to stay the course, not increase CAPEX in 2023 -- what happened? But I digress.

Devon.

  • plays in play:
    • Permian Delaware
    • Anadarko
    • Williston
    • Powder River
  • 2023 CAPEX budget: $3.6 - $3.8 billion
    • midpoint: a 46% increase from 2022's CAPEX of $2.54 billion\
    • holy mackerel! A 46% increase!
    • will self-fund the entire budget even if WTI drops as low as $40 / bbl
  • Delaware:
    • will be the top funded asset in the Devon portfolio
    • roughly 60% of Devon's total capital budget for 2023
    • Devon's Delaware: "world-class productivity"
    • Devon has established multiple "outlets" which will avoid many of the takeaway constraints in the basin
    • 95% of Devon's Delaware gas protected by firm contracts
    • 2/3rds of Devon's Delaware program will be directed in New Mexico
  • Eagle Ford:
    • three-rig program for 2023
    • bring online nearly 90 wells across 82,000 net-acre position
  • Anadarko:
    • 40 wells across 300,000 net acres
  • Powder River Basin:
    • 20 wells across 300,000 net acres
  • Williston:
  • 40 gross wells across 123,000 net acres
  • Production, 2022:
    • 4Q22: 1.03 Bcf/d natural gas vs 943 in 2021;
    • a quarterly record 316,000 bopd vs 300,000 in 2021;
    • quarterly record 148,000 b/d natural gas liquids vs 154,000 in 2021
  • Previously reported:
  • acquired Eagle Ford pure-play Validus Energy for $1.8 billion
  • acquired RimRock Oil and Gas LP's Williston assets for $865 million

Much more at the link.

  • Devon reported net income of $1.2 billion ($1.84/share) for the fourth quarter, versus $1.51 billion ($2.24) in 4Q2021. Full-year net earnings were $6.04 billion, up from $2.83 billion in 2021. 
  • Total revenue was $4.3 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $4.27 billion in the same period of 2021. Full-year revenues were $19.2 billion in 2022, up from $12.2 billion in 2021.

Let's Do The Math -- Back Of The Envelope At The Thirsty Lion Earlier Today -- February 26, 2023

EOG:

  • production forecast for 2023: 944,000 to 1.03 million bopd; let's call it 1 million bopd
  • most recent production: 909,100 boepd
  • difference: 90,000 boepd
  • EOG: to increase CAPEX by $1.4 billion, y/y, in 2023
  • $1.4 billion / 90,000 boepd = $16,000 / bbl
  • I was once told a common data point when valuing an oil play: $20,000 - $40,000 / flowing boepd
  • what would it take to "cover" that $1.4 billion in one year?
  • $1.4 billion / (90,000 bopd x 365 days) =
  • $1.4 billion / (32,850,000) = $42

Now, is that $42 even in the ballpark?

Devon says it will maintain its proposed drilling program for 2023 down to $40 / bbl. Link here.

Let's take a look at the rest of that NGI story.

By the way, before we get started, remember all the news stories less than three months ago that shale operators were going to stay the course, not increase CAPEX in 2023 -- what happened? But I digress.

Devon.

  • plays in play:
    • Permian Delaware
    • Anadarko
    • Williston,
    • Powder River
  • 2023 CAPEX budget: $3.6 - $3.8 billion
    • midpoint: a 46% increase from 2022's CAPEX of $2.54 billion\
    • holy mackerel! A 46% increase!
    • will self-fund the entire budget even if WTI drops as low as $40 / bbl
  • Delaware:
    • will be the top funded asset in the Devon portfolio
    • roughly 60% of Devon's total capital budget for 2023
    • Devon's Delaware: "world-class productivity"
    • Devon has established multiple "outlets" which will avoid many of the takeaway constraints in the basin
    • 95% of Devon's Delaware gas protected by firm contracts
    • 2/3rds of Devon's Delaware program will be directed in New Mexico
  • Eagle Ford:
    • three-rig program for 2023
    • bring online nearly 90 wells across 82,000 net-acre position
  • Anadarko:
    • 40 wells across 300,000 net acres
  • Powder River Basin:
    • 20 wells across 300,000 net acres
  • Williston:
  • 40 gross wells across 123,000 net acres
  • Production, 2022:
    • 4Q22: 1.03 Bcf/d natural gas vs 943 in 2021;
    • a quarterly record 316,000 bopd vs 300,000 in 2021;
    • quarterly record 148,000 b/d natural gas liquids vs 154,000 in 2021
  • Previously reported:
  • acquired Eagle Ford pure-play Validus Energy for $1.8 billion
  • acquired RimRock Oil and Gas LP's Williston assets for $865 million

Much more at the link.

  • Devon reported net income of $1.2 billion ($1.84/share) for the fourth quarter, versus $1.51 billion ($2.24) in 4Q2021. Full-year net earnings were $6.04 billion, up from $2.83 billion in 2021. 
  • Total revenue was $4.3 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $4.27 billion in the same period of 2021. Full-year revenues were $19.2 billion in 2022, up from $12.2 billion in 2021.