US Pilot Shortage -- June 20, 2022

This is a most interesting economy.

Williston Herald's "Energy Chaser" -- North Dakota's Rig Counts Will Remain Low For Quite Some Time -- Helms -- June 20, 2022

Again, I can't say enough about Renée Jean's weekly column.

BAKKEN GETTING OVER A HANGOVER: 

Those back to back blizzards in April gave the Bakken a hangover, North Dakota Director of Mineral Resources Lynn Helms said during his monthly oil production report. 

The main part of the problem, of course, were the power outages, which put the lights out for two of the state's largest natural gas processors. 

Production losses ranged from 45 to 100 percent for producers, dropping oil production 20 percent for April to 900,597 barrels per day and gas production 19 percent to 2.445 billion cubic feet per day. 

County by county, McKenzie County lost the most per day, 67,000 barrels, followed by Dunn County which lost 57,000 barrels per day. Williams County lost 53,000 barrels per day and Mountrail lost 36,000 barrels per day. Divide County, meanwhile, lost the least, despite being hardest hit by the storm. They lost just 4,000 barrels per day. 

There are around 16 hydraulic fracturing crews working in the Bakken presently. 

Active drilling rigs are around 39, down from 44 week before last on Friday. 

The region's two largest rig suppliers have 14 rigs located in North Dakota to deploy — but it's taking them two months to secure a crew to train to operate them. 

At that rate, it will take a little more than two years to deploy all of those rigs. Helms does not expect the state to break 50 rigs this year as a result.

ERCOT -- Texas Grid -- 101°F In North Texas -- Grid Held By A Wide Margin -- June 20, 2022

The gap between supply and demand narrows a bit as we head toward 8:00 p.m. but the gap is wider (good) that forecast earlier today.

No daily activity report today. 

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The Usual Disclaimer Applies

Link here.

Since Everyone's Talking About It, A Couple Of Graphs -- June 20, 2022

GDPNow, link here: current reading, 0.0 %.

• 1Q22, second reading: - 1.5%
• 4Q21: +6.9%

GDPNow:

History:

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How Bad Could It Get?

Link here.

To what extent will a) a cryptocurrency crash; and, b) a housing crash help? One has happened; the other appears about ready to happen.

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Keystoning America

"Biden and oil: destroy America in order to save it." -- Victor Davis Hanson

Link here, June 19, 2022.

This president has delivered on what he promised.

During the Democratic primaries, Biden ran on the premise that he would end all fossil fuels during his tenure. In 2019-2020 that bluster seemed easy demagoguery at a time of near-record low gas and diesel prices. The American people shrugged at such utopianism since they often were filling up their cars for less than $50.

Biden’s video clips from the primary campaign now seem surreal, as he tried to out-green Bernie Sanders in boasting about what has now become his own self-created energy disaster.

Biden monotonously promised at rallies, such as they were, that he would cancel pipelines, stop new federal leasing to oil and gas companies, persuade lenders to restrict loans to them, put the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve off limits, and embrace the green new deal. Those were certainly campaign boasts that he has followed up on.

Biden apparently doubled down over the three-day weekend by seeming to suggest that high gas prices will be a "good" opportunity for the US to make a "fundamental turn" to clean energy. 

Biden will meet with US oil executives soon.

His opening gambit: how can Big Oil justify $35 billion in profit in the 2Q22. 

The US oil sector reply: by keeping prices high, we are doing our best to help Biden's goal to pivot to renewable energy sooner than later, an opportunity to make a "fundamental turn."

Meanwhile, back to a federal gasoline tax holiday, link here:

I'm not sure anyone in the White House can do simple arithmetic.

• 18.4 cents / 575 cents = 3.2%
• 20 gallons at $5.75 = $115.00 (no federal tax relief)
  
• 20 gallons at $5.56 = $111.32 (with federal tax relief)

Or as President Obama noted in 2008:

Off The Net For Awhile -- June 20, 2022

The Movie Page

Pixar's Lightyear: the movie gross disappointed. Only $51 million at the box office over el fin de semana. Link here.

Lightyear came close but no cigar. Beaten by Jurassic World Dominion, the latter's second week at the #1 position. JWD grossed almost $60 million.

Lightyear: Pixar Animation Studios owned by Disney.

JWD: Universal owned by Comcast.

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Texas Grid

As the sun starts to set, the Texas grid becomes ever more precarious. Link here. And, that, folks is the problem with renewable, non-dispatchable, non-guaranteed solar energy.