Thursday, March 18, 2021

That Ban On Leasing On Federal Land? Not So Much -- March 18, 2021

If logic prevails, pop quiz:

  • prevailing theme: OPEC is in control of the price of oil this year;
  • Saudi Arabia cannot survive on $60 oil
  • Conclusion: fill in the blank -- ___________________________________________.

Hess: sells Danish assets to Ineos; link here;

  • Ineos Energy will acquire Hess Corp subsidiary Hess Denmark for $150 million
  • Ineos will acquire 61.5% of the Hess-operated South (Syd) Arne oil field in the Danish North Sea
  • this will add to the 36.8% share Ineos already holds in the field:
  • Ineos will also acquire 4.8% of Solsort field, which is already operated by Ineos
  • lots of "green" talk in the article

Mexico: this was posted a few days ago; a prediction that Mexico would announce an oil discovery;

  • such announcements are usually made about this time every year:
  • generally, political announcements;
  • folks not taking the announcement of the discovery very seriously;

Norway: Sweden's Lundin Energy sees growth in Sverdrup oilfield;

  • Lundin is partnered with Norway developing this field
  • production capacity from 2.2 billion to 3.2 billion boe;
  • largest field in western Europe
  • recoverable reserves already revised up several times since its startup in October, 2019;

 Natural gas: Henry Hub forwards hit two-month low as summer supply outlook turns bearish.

Shale: 0% growth, free cash flow, and inventory analysis.

Shale: first shale IPO in years leaves Wall Street unimpressed.

  • Vine Energy Inc: 21.5 million shares for a total of $301 million;
  • Plano, TX, based.
  • Focus: natural gas, Haynesville
  • planned: $16  - $19 / share IPO
  • actual: $14 / share; raised $281 million

BLM: not Black Lives Matter. The other "BLM." BLM is now approving permits for Federal lands.

Scam: "blue hydrogen" is not green either; if anything, it's "brown"; link here;

  • BP is going "green"
  • BP will help the UK not use natural gas by using hydrogen made by natural gas
  • which makes CO2 in the process

Vaccine: India, major vaccine producer may have trouble meeting demand; link here;

  • who's to blame: the US
  • why: US exports bans on specific items to make vaccines, such as specialized bags and filters
  • source: BBC
  • something tells me there is more to the story;

US steel:

  • the south has risen again!
  • the southern US has emerged as the nation's top steel-producing region in 2020;
  • Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina;
  • culminates a steady shift away from the traditional steelmaking rust-belt in the north
  • coming up short: Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh;
  • link here;

Politics: CNN has lost 47% of its primetime audience in the 25 - 54 age demographic since President Trump left office. Link here.

Ovintiv's Obenour, Sturgeon And Bernice Wells In South Tobacco Garden; Older Well With Jump In Production -- March 18, 2021

The wells:

  • 37101, A/DRL, Ovintiv, Obenour 150-99-28-33-5HLW, South Tobacco Garden, first production, 3/20, t--; cum 152K 1/21;
  • 36910, A/DRL, Ovintiv, Bernice 150-99-17-20-4H, South Tobacco Garden, first production, 2/20, t--; cum 242K 1/20;
  • 36908, A/DRL, Ovintiv, Bernice 150-99-17-20-5H, South Tobacco Garden, first production,1/20, t--; cum 151K 1/21;
  • 37105, A/DRL, Ovintiv, Obenour 150-99-28-33-1HR, South Tobacco Garden, first production, 3/20, t--; cum 182K 1/21;
  • 36647, A/DRL, Ovintiv, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-78HLW, South Tobacco Garden, first production, 1/20, t--; cum --; off line immediately after only 29 days; remains off line 1/21;
  • 36648, A/DRL, Ovintiv, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-7H, South Tobacco Garden, first production, 1/20, t--; cum 183K 1/2

Nearby wells of interest:

  • 35975, 1,834, Ovintiv, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-4H, South Tobacco Road, F, t7/19; cum 208K 1/21;
  • 35976, 1,311, Ovintiv, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-11H, South Tobacco Road, F, t7/19; cum 108K 1/21;
  • 35977, 2,106, Ovintiv, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-5H, South Tobacco Road, F, t7/19; cum 233K 1/21;
  • 21192, 2,148, Ovintiv, Bernice 150-99-20-17-1H, South Tobacco Road, t1/12; cum 337K 1/21; jump in production, 1/20; full production here; a 10-fold jump in production; not re-fracked;

**************************************
36910

The well:

  • 36910, A/DRL, Ovintiv, Bernice 150-99-17-20-4H, South Tobacco Garden, first production, 2/20, t--; cum 242K 1/20; fracked 11/24/2019 - 12/3/2019; 9.8 million gallons of water; 91.6% water by mass;

From the file report:

  • spud: September 17, 2019
  • KOP: October 1, 2019
  • lateral:
    • 88.23% drilled in 15' target zone
    • 3.9% drilled above target in middle Bakken "D" facies
    • 8.58% drilled below target in middle Bakken "B" facies
  • TD: October 22, 2019
  • look how long it took to drill the lateral: three days;
    • lateral began October 19, 2019;
    • a 10' to 15' flare was observed during the second half of the lateral

Production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2021311034310492120351838918084168
BAKKEN12-202031129251292316841267372656616
BAKKEN11-20203014346141492431223673219721560
BAKKEN10-20203195109255193041372913216361
BAKKEN9-20203094759361151971435713217982
BAKKEN8-202031118981205420748177571753056
BAKKEN7-2020311661916660278212325022944174
BAKKEN6-2020301961419805222992510824822171
BAKKEN5-2020312232021903234502811127868104
BAKKEN4-2020221619116432202492166121440130
BAKKEN3-20203139578401554060553668438519692
BAKKEN2-20202958353567394475858491058394
BAKKEN1-20201140338145531180118

Ovintiv Reports Seven Nice DUCs In South Tobacco Garden -- March 18, 2021

Brent crude sank even lower, down 8% on the day to $62.5 / bbl. It's the biggest one-day drop since last April (and excluding March - April 2020, and the 2008 - 2009 financial crisis, among the largest one-day drops of the last two decades). Wow, lots of exceptions / qualifiers in that breathless tweet

Before we get too excited about today, one year ago today, flashback, March 18, 2020:

  • Saudi Aramco CEO "comfortable" with $30-oil; one wonders if he is comfortable with $20-oil?
  • WTI: $22.87
  • Breaking news: US oil prices tumble 14% as recession fears grow
  • Iraq desperate for OPEC action as oil prices crash

So, that was exactly one year ago.

Now, back to the Bakken, today.

Active rigs:

$60.08
3/18/202103/18/202003/18/201903/18/201803/18/2017
Active Rigs1655655847

One new permit, #38213 --

  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Werner (Dunn)
    • Comments: MRO has a permit for a Katherine Schettler USA well in section 27-1346-92
    • 883' FNL and 1798' FEL

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37101, A/DRL, Ovintiv, Obenour 150-99-28-33-5HLW, South Tobacco Garden, first production, 3/20, t--; cum 152K 1/21;
  • 36910, A/DRL, Ovintiv, Bernice 150-99-17-20-4H, South Tobacco Garden, first production, 2/20, t--; cum 242K 1/20;
  • 36908, DUC, Ovintiv, Bernice 150-99-17-20-5H, South Tobacco Garden, first production,1/20, t--; cum 151K 1/21;
  • 37105, A/DRL, Ovintiv, Obenour 150-99-28-33-1HR, South Tobacco Garden, first production, 3/20, t--; cum 182K 1/21;
  • 36647, A/DRL, Ovintiv, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-78HLW, South Tobacco Garden, first production, 1/20, t--; cum --; off line immediately after only 29 days; remains off line 1/21;
  • 36648, A/DRL, Ovintiv, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-7H, South Tobacco Garden, first production, 1/20, t--; cum 183K 1/21;
  • 37102, A/DRL, Ovintiv, Obenour 150-99-28-33-6H, South Tobacco Garden, first production, 3/20, t--; cum 153K 1/21;

Dilles Bottom, Ohio, Cracker Plant -- Update -- March 18, 2021

In reply to an earlier post regarding the plastics shortage due to the Texas Deep Freeze, a reader mentioned the Dilles Bottom, Ohio, cracker plant. I was unfamiliar with this plant. 

Three links. The third link below was undated but it sounds like it was published back in 2016. Note that the Dilles Bottom cracker story was one of the top regional stories last year (2020).



Keystone XL Lawsuit -- Op-Ed -- March 18, 2021

Op-ed piece regarding the Keystone XL lawsuit sent to me by a reader. Thank you.

The reader states that the op-ed may be a bit more optimistic than the "facts" would suggest. 

Regardless of the initial outcome, one would expect that the ruling would be appealed to the US Supreme Court. On its "merits," one would assume this would be an important case for the US Supreme Court but my hunch? The US Supreme Court doesn't like to take pipeline cases.