Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Remote Learning: Home Schooling On Steroids -- September 2, 2020

I am really, really excited about Sophia's first year of school, first grade, O. C. Taylor, Grapevine, TX.

Wow, the ISD certainly seems to be on top of what's going on. I am really, really impressed. 

It appears the administrative staff and the teachers have really taken on distance learning / remote learning in a very, very big way and their efforts this summer have really paid off. 

Interestingly enough, it's not uncommon for teachers to spend the summer taking a second job or traveling overseas but this year they were pretty much stuck at home, giving them an opportunity to prepare for a very, very interesting 2020 - 2021 school year.

In July, 2020, parents had to make a decision: whether to "return to school" in the autumn a) physically, in-person; or, b) remain at home, distance learning / remote learning.

At the time, July, 2020, the pandemic hysteria remained at near-highs and the family made the decision to return "remotely."

The first three weeks of school were a "soft" re-opening. All students remained at home (or their designated alternate location such as TutorTime) and learned to use WebEx and their school-issued iPad for remote learning. 

Wow, talk about a huge jump. 

Based on what I see Sophia doing, I am absolutely amazed how smoothly it went.  

This is the future: technology, tablets, software, video conferencing, coding, remote learning, etc. The Covid-19 pandemic telescoped ten years into less than a year. This is truly amazing.  

This is exactly how Sophia's mother got her advanced degree from one of top universities in the country: distant learning while living in north Texas with periodic in-person assessments in Chicago, IL. 

During the past two or three years, there was a lot of collective family angst about the amount of time Sophia was spending on screen time -- mostly the iPad. In hindsight, it appears to have turned out well. Wow, talk about a huge jump. Based on what I see Sophia doing, I am absolutely amazed how smoothly it went.

Look how she talks about her experience, only two weeks into the process:

Is there any doubt she gets it?

There appear to be three components to remote learning for first graders:

  • video monitoring / video conferencing / "Zoom Resources" / 
  • an understanding of apps -- almost all teaching is done on apps
  • mastery of the iPad; reading adult-language instructions

The process includes a fourth component: periodic in-person assessment with the child's teacher.

Collaboration among the students was remarkable. Students, even at the first grade level, are talking to each other about what is important, shortcuts, and efficiencies, although they may not use those exact words.

I had originally hoped that Sophia would be returning to school immediately after the three-week "soft re-opening," but now that I've seen how well she has done to date, I am absolutely convinced another nine weeks remote learning was the correct decision.

The big reason? As stated above, this is the future. Even if she were to lag a bit in reading or math (which I doubt will happen), she will more than make up for it by becoming even more expert / adept at using the technology.

The big key to remote learning for K - 12 students: adult mentoring, adult monitoring, adult presence. In Sophia's case she will have all three.

By studying at home, Sophia will get music lessons (piano practice) something she would not get at school. In addition, she will get as much art as she wants. She will also learn social skills, such as hosting a tea party (which she certainly would not get at school) and she will also get a lot of "money" instructions: studying coins, for example, which incorporates quite a number of disciplines, including counting, subtraction, addition, history, etc. 

I was a substitute teach for middle school and high school for many years. My biggest take-away from those years of teaching, in which I taught almost every day: the incredible inefficiency of teaching / learning at school. A huge amount of time is devoted to administration, hallway movements, and discipline. In addition, teaching was often dumb-downed to those students that needed the most attention and/or time. Education often came to a stop when a teacher started to work with a single student that needed extra attention. The rest of the students became bored, and quickly disciplinary challenges appeared. 

I was also negatively impressed with the number of hours all students actually watched main-stream movies at school, like Frozen 2 for any a number of reasons. Movies were often shown when the teachers needed time to get caught up with their own administrative responsibilities. 

By the way, not mentioned: one school re-opens physically, there will be a lot of concern with all the "colds" and URIs brought into the school once the "cold and flu season" returns, which it will.

The apps these days are incredible. Sophia loves her "teaching piano" app. One area I'm probably deficient in with regard to Sophia is art -- she has painting apps on the iPad but those are "free-form." She needs some actual teaching. So, that's something to work on. 

By the way, speaking of the "piano" app, Sophia also has garage band which includes guitars and drums. She found those on her own and she was the one who taught me, not the other way around. 

I was somewhat surprised by how short the school day really is for first graders. Although she signed in at 8:00 a.m. the first synchronous activity was scheduled from 10:00 to 10:30. After that the students "were on their own" and would check back in from 2:00 - 2:30 p.m. That's about an hour of synchronous activity; the rest of their day was "on their own." 

The one downside right now: the teachers are overwhelmed with "homework" being submitted. The teachers have voiced a concern they are not able to respond to each bit of homework submitted by the students. The risk is that students will quit submitting homework if they get the feeling that their submissions are not being read.

Personally I don't think that should be a big concern. As long as there is adult mentoring, adult monitoring, and adult presence, this will all take care of itself. 

I'll provide an update a month down the road if not sooner. 

Oh, by the way: remote learning? No bullying. Is this a big issue? It sure is. The issue of bullying was the constant theme during the first week of soft re-opening.

Another Incredible Whiting Well Under The Radar -- September 2, 2020

One well coming off confidential list -- Wednesday, September 2, 2020:

  • 35288, SI/A, Whiting, Berg Trust Federal 31-27HU, Pembroke, t--; cum 115K 7/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-202026140871412818157581003486423236
BAKKEN6-20203014827147261947232704280104694
BAKKEN5-2020191122811299125072278622631155
BAKKEN4-20203030408305653062261398594591885
BAKKEN3-20203144496441615557587385826124683
BAKKEN2-202020075083860381

API: 33-053-08684: fracked 2/3/20 - 2/15/20; 5.3 million gallons of water (small-to-moderate frack); water 86.7% by mass;

From the well file:

  • spud: July 14, 2019
  • cease drilling:  July 23, 2029
  • vertical logging began at 1230 hours on July 18, 2019;
  • reached KOP at 2110 hours, July 18, 2019
    • so, vertical drilled in less than 12 hours; checked those times twice;
  • curve: began 0617 hours July 19, 2019; time not provided but generally completed in 12 hours;
    • drilled out of the shoe, 0150 hours, July 21, 2019
  • the lateral:
    • well bore remained with the targeted facies through 14,220' MD, through July 21, 2019
    • July 22, 2019: slid outside the target facies; back within the target through the morning of July 23, 2019;
    • final day of drilling, July 23, 2019; background gas average 4,291 units the last day of drilling; reached TD at 1343 hours, July 23, 2019;
    • about 2.5 days to drill the lateral
  • if not typographical errors on the file report and if I read this correctly, 12 hours to drive the vertical; 12 hours to drill the curve; 2.5 days to drill the lateral;

Pembroke oil field:

Notes From All Over -- CNBC Now Using The Word "Bull Market" More Frequently -- September 2, 2020

The three most fascinating blue chip stocks right now:

  • AAPL
  • UNP
  • WMT;

TSLA: CNBC senior financial analyst noted that the company selling stock worth $5 billion has almost no material effect on the company's market cap and gives them huge opportunity to executive business strategy.

Record highs:

  • Zillow Group
  • S&P 500
  • NASDAQ

Dow: within 3% of all-time high. 

IMUX: down for the last few days. Something I did not notice until today. One-year target has jumped from $48 to $61 over the past few days. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Notes From All Over -- The Pre-Market Edition -- September 2, 2020

F: job cuts -- breaking news from CNBC --

  • early retirement offered
  • goal: to trim 1,400 salaried jobs; will make involuntary cuts if necessary
  • had already cut 7,000 salaried jobs over the past year; still not meeting financial goals
  • again, discussion devolved into unit sales for automobile manufacturers; again, Phil LeBeau missing the point;
    • last year, 44 million automobile sold worldwide
    • Tesla last year: 385,000 vehicles delivered (0.875%) 
    • whatever

Pre-market:

  • indices all very green, but very high numbers seen earlier this morning are dropping back
  • Peloton: one-year wait for Peloton orders; Peloton will open at a new high;
  • WMT: astounding; is anyone watching?
  • Dow 30:  up 128
  • S&P 500: up 22
  • NASDAQ: up 140
  • individual companies
    • AAPL: up almost $4; pre-split dollars, up around $15; forward P/E of 10; do the math -- price of AAPL based on a forward P/E of 30;
    • WMT: huge surprise -- huge run-up yesterday; today up another $3.30 or 2.25%
    • TSLA: folks cautious; down almost 5% yesterday; green but flat today;
    • UNP: most fascinating stock to watch right now; not trading yet; was up $3.36/share yesterday or 1.75%
    • JNJ: surprises me; down a bit yesterday; down slightly today but mostly flat; may be related to ex-div date; I don't know;
    • McDonald's: currently getting a lot of interest over at CNBC; somewhat flat over last two days; P/E 34 (compare with P/E of AAPL pre-split: about 35)
    • SBUX: up again today; P/E 76
    • T: struggling
    • SLB: don't even want to look
    • ENB: up a bit the last two days, but still within a trading range; pays almost 8%:
    • EPD: flat; pays 10%
    • AMGN: after negative yesterday, up today;
    • QCOM: doing well right now 
    • Bank of Nova Scotia: a no-brainer but a Canadian company and Canadian taxes;

The major index numbers are simply incredible, especially the NASDAQ. The Dow 30 will catch up and the S&P 500 is already doing just fine.

It is obvious that Covid-19 telescoped the next ten years to this year. 

"Black swan" stories? Where are they? Pretty amazing. Who wudda thought?

By the way, is it possible that President Trump should be given a lot more credit for the market?

Wow, CNBC senior financial analyst continues to talk down the market; seems very frustrated with AAPL, TSLA, and the at-home mom-and-pop investors-turned traders. Doesn't get it. 

CNBC senior financial analyst says the jobs number today was disappointing. Again, missing the point. We're seeing a huge bifurcation, and Jay Powell spoke to it. Perhaps the huge pre-market numbers did drop a bit after the jobs number came out this morning, but the pre-market numbers always seem to change significantly once the market actually opens. 

As for the jobs numbers: I saw them in passing, won't bother to look them up now, but expectation was something like one million jobs would have been added in August; in fact less than half that number, about 450,000.

Random Example Of The "Halo Effect" -- September 2, 2020

 The "halo effect" was not particularly remarkable in this well, but it was present, nonetheless. Note: I am calling it a "halo effect" but not attributing the "halo effect" to anything specific. I'm only saying that this well showed a jump in production after returning to production after neighboring wells were fracked. Some of this jump in production is simply due to "pent up" pressure having been off lien for a few months. But in my mind, I don't care what causes the halo effect: for the mom-and-pop mineral owners it's a pleasant surprise. There had been so much talk that new, neighboring wells would have a negative impact on older wells. 

This completely violates Hubbert's peak oil law which was said to apply from the single well to the oil field to the oil basin to the global oil production. 

Much more could be said; I will leave it at that for now.

Example of the halo effect:

  • 19996, 1,148, Slawson, Alamo 2-19-18H, Big Bend, t6/11; cum 547K 7/20; off line 5/20; returning to production 7/20;
BAKKEN1-20183163116467358253584045488
BAKKEN12-201731749574048181587536421281
BAKKEN11-2017309177913211870641122773001
BAKKEN10-2017257644749315565507619832195
BAKKEN9-20172554835507655740462486861
BAKKEN8-20171136123583311928131959413
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20171258166210346184834
BAKKEN5-20172614671582696127695333
BAKKEN4-2017308237283607075507
BAKKEN3-2017278188983467085730
BAKKEN2-201728123113227958997590