Saturday, May 30, 2020

Random Update Of A Rimrock Moccasin Creek DUC -- May 30, 2020

Almost 400K in one year.
  • 46 stages; 12.6 million lbs
  • 2560-acre spacing: sections 3/4/9/10-147-93
  • TD: 21,115 feet
The well:
  • 35499, 2,859, RimRock Oil & Gas, MC MHA 24-10HU, Moccasin Creek, t3/19; cum 384K 3/20;
Full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202030185691833913182236232354974
BAKKEN2-20202919688197001495824513245058
BAKKEN1-2020312423424204179652799327848145
BAKKEN12-2019242130321318152752003619488547
BAKKEN11-2019282548825558182532523524622587
BAKKEN10-20193132580325132601431737275433522
BAKKEN9-2019191811518105170831444993293937
BAKKEN8-201931352853547032300346891864914563
BAKKEN7-201931364373642231454364372435610821
BAKKEN6-20193036680365373524334237244019587
BAKKEN5-201926309953101732928269601527211688
BAKKEN4-20193057847579625926926112026112
BAKKEN3-20193126786263612489915200015200

Why I Love To Blog, Reason #1 -- Now I Know What All The Excitement Was About -- Updating Nine Point Energy' Wells In Eightmile -- May 30, 2020

This is really, really cool, on so many levels. I actually missed this story for several days, maybe weeks, but with time on my hands today, I decided to take a look. 

At the sidebar at the right, there is an app that posts the top ten trending posts. Most top trending posts are recent posts, but when an "old" post rises to the top, it's time to take a look.

See this post. The original post was January 28, 2020. At that time, the most recent production data was for the month 11/19. At that time all completed wells were producing.

It is strange to see a post this old to be trending among the top ten. So, let's take a look.

Well, well, well. What do we see? The producing wells at the time of the original post are now all off line; and, the wells that were on "drl" status are now producing and have moved to the conf list. And finally the wells that were producing a small amount back in November, 2019, are now into full production.

So, now we know. The mom-and-pop mineral rights owners were checking into see what was going on. They must have received their royalty checks. Whoo-hoo!

There are so many story lines here:
  • first, of course, the royalty checks for small mineral owners;
  • second, once the price oil "comes back," the checks will be bigger;
  • third, this opens up an entire new area for E&P;
  • fourth, hopefully Nine Point Energy can hang through this downturn; they've been through this once before;  
  • fifth, the tenacity, the persistence, the git 'er done attitude of oil men and women; and, 
  • probably a lot more.
By the way,  a huge apology for failing to get this posted. I completely missed it. I'm sure a lot of mineral owners were upset with my delay in getting this posted. I learned a lesson.

The wells:
  • 34783, 1,004, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-1H, Eightmile, t11/18; cum 190K 11/19; a 24K month; now, 221K 3/20; only seven days 3/20; remains off line 4/20;
  • 34784, 1,098, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-2H, Eightmile, t11/18; cum 207K 11/19; a 30K month; off line 11/19; remains off line 4/20;
  • 34785, 1,083, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-3H, Eightmile, t11/18; cum 241K 11/19; a 24K month; off line 11/19; remains off line 4/20;
  • 34786, drl-->conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-4H, Eightmile, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    4-2020119172886
    3-20207390
  • 34787, drl-->conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-5H, Eightmile,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    4-2020169076850
    3-2020697466
  • 34788, drl, drl-->conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-6H, Eightmile,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    4-2020165357390
    3-20203513

  • 36157, 895, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-12H, Eightmile, t12/19; cum 105K 4/20;

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    3-2020173890
    2-2020157010
    1-2020262160
    12-2019302450
    11-2019190

  • 36156, 1,018, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-11H, 80 stages; 13 million lbs; some ceramic; proposed 1600 acres (sections 10, 11 &E2/9-152-103); TD = 24,263 feet; lateral drilled in 64 hours; length of lateral, 12,840 feet; curve, 820 feet drilled in 13 hours; vertical (big rig), 1,700 feet drilled in 17 hours; gas: averaged 1,233 units in the lateral; maxed out at 7,013 units; Eightmile, t12/19; cum 106K 4/20;

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN3-20203123032225386189925306025306
    BAKKEN2-20202410121103043236611323011323
    BAKKEN1-20203120653206616092315769015769
    BAKKEN12-20193025642259217627426702026702
    BAKKEN11-201997582695048719237302373

  • 36155, 983, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-110H, 80 stages; 13 million lbs; some ceramic; proposed 1600 acres (sections 10, 11 &E2/9-152-103); TD = 24,263 feet; Eightmile, t11/19; cum 118K 4/20;

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN3-20202819982196125589826359026359
    BAKKEN2-20202712408125123661313415013415
    BAKKEN1-20203118163182535692824050024050
    BAKKEN12-20193128579296977234132286032286
    BAKKEN11-20192418117166055855511698011698
  • 37259, drl, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-4-11-9H, Eightmile,
  • 37258, rig-on-site (January, 2020)-->drl, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-4-11-8H, Eightmile, 
The graphics:

June 10, 2020:


May 30, 2020:
 

Rigs Don't Matter -- Laying Down Rigs, Shutting In Wells, And Still It Rises -- And So Do Exports .... Natural Gas -- Part 2 -- May 30, 2020

In response, I suppose, to my post earlier today: rigs don't matter -- US natural gas production continues to increase, a reader sent me a note. But before we get to that note, a reminder of what I wrote earlier:
Natural gas fill rate, link here. Look at these numbers, simply staggering. And this comes despite the industry "shutting down" as fast as it can:
  • working gas storage: an increase of 109 BCF from the previous week
  • working gas storage: an increase of 42% year-over-year
  • working gas storage: an increase of 19% over 5-year-average (and the 5-year average keeps increasing)
Not entirely true, but from my perspective, the three major US shale oil plays are actually giving the US shale natural gas plays a run for their money.

Over the past few weeks, I have caught some of the stories regarding the US natural gas industry but a reader really, really put it into perspective. So, while protesters tear down the US and drive to their destinations in SUVs running on inexpensive, readily accessible, and consistently pure-grade gasoline or diesel fuel, this is what "their" US energy sector is doing. Again, a huge "thanks" to the reader for putting this all together:
  • Deals:
    • Ukraine just signed purchase agreement for US LNG for annual out put of one (1) standard LNG train (~5 mtpa); the Ukraine is in Russia's backyard;
    • Turkey is not repairing the damaged gas pipeline from Iran and, instead, is purchasing US LNG
    • likewise, US LNG is cheaper than piped Gazprom pricing (~$7/mmbtu) and so Turkey is also reducing LNG from Russia 
    • the Yamal-Poland gas pipe currently not flowing supply as Poland ramps up purchases of US LNG
    • both Algeria and Egypt have greatly curtailed exports of natgas due to low pricing.
      • Customers such as Cyprus, Croatia, Italy, Hungary are either now switching to US LNG purchases or are planning to
    • Qatar is struggling to extend LNG supply contracts to both India and Pakistan as their ~$7/mmbtu prices are higher than current ~$4/$5 spot mostly sourced from USA 
    • Singapore is not renewing contracts to receive piped gas from nearby Malaysian and Indonesian suppliers as  US LNG prices are so much lower 
    • the reader's favorite: the world's leading LNG exporter - Australia - may start IMPORTING LNG from US into Port Kembla by next year.
  • Reader's comments:
    • people seem generally oblivious to the ultra-low cost to extract US 'shale' natgas, liquefy it, and transport it in ships that use the "boil off gas" for fuel (essentially cost free fuel).
    • just as the Saudi government is pinched for oil-connected revenues, other global players are starting to be squeezed in a BIG way by competition from US LNG.
My comments:
Those are amazing data points; I had no idea of the "immensity."
I had seen a few of these data points over the past few weeks but I only caught a few of them. When all of them are put together, as you note, it's a reminder (for lack of a better word) how incredibly dominant the US energy sector really is.

Some years from now, I suspect, the current demand destruction issue / COVID-19 pandemic will be seen as a speed bump and at best a footnote in America's energy history.
Boil off gas (link here): 


Notes From All Over -- The Saturday Lockdown Edition -- Part 2 -- Nothing About The Bakken -- May 30, 2020

SpaceX launch. Elon Musk.
  • ignition
  • lift-off
  • lit Roman candle
  • T+1:00 minute: all systems go; system super-sonic
  • throttling up to full power
  • 2.3 g's
  • T+2:00 minutes
  • throttling down first stage; main engine cut-off
  • stage separation; second stage ignited
  • into orbit
  • T+8:00 minutes: second engine cut-off
  • first stage returning to ocean for retrieval for re-use 
  • T+12 minutes: "in space"; in orbit; officially en route to the ISS
President Trump on-scene. No one in presidential viewing stand is wearing a mask. The president was there for the Wednesday launch also when the mission was scrubbed due to weather.

Over at Twitter, Elon Musk tweets that the booster rocket successfully landed on the retrieval drone, #51 of 52 such landings. Elon Musk tweets a video of the 51 successful landings from various vantage points. 


I had a devil of a time buying this when it was originally released. It was constantly out of stock. Finally, for a brief moment it was available. I ordered it on-line but somewhere along the line the order failed.

I immediately called Lego's help desk; individual very, very helpful. He immediately "saved" my purchase and the model was shipped. Interestingly, the individual that helped me get this model said he had been unable to order it due to limited supplies, and like me, visited the Lego home page frequently, hoping to catch it when it was available. He was unaware that it was temporarily available and said as soon as his shift was over he was headed home to order "his."

He was not allowed to order products while on company computers.

I don't remember the price I paid. I believe it was $119. Oh, yes, there is it, $119. It is now going for $248 over at Amazon. Item #21309, released June, 2017, only four years ago, and already retired. It's a very, very impressive model.

Notes From All Over -- The Saturday Lockdown Edition -- Nothing About The Bakken -- May 30, 2020

Apple: the Apple Store in Southlake, TX, is now "open" in accordance with their re-opening announcements. Most business is done outside the store. Appears to be working very, very well.

Apple: huge pent-up demand.


Sold out: as posted previously, iPads are sold out at Costco, and have been for about a week. Obviously a shortage of parts, and a huge pent-up demand. 

Apple: continues to innovate. It's interesting. Before the smart phones, most of us grew up on ATT beige desktop or wall phones. I used those phones for thirty, maybe forty years. In all that time, I am unaware of any major upgrade. Pick up a humongous receiver; dial on a rotary dial; listen for the dial tone, etc. That was it: no innovation for decades. Now, with smart phones, and particularly Apple, upgrades often on the operating system. Amazing. In hindsight, one wonders what ATT was doing all those years. Here's another example.

Apple: forty percent of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway mutual fund is AAPL.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The phones from my mother's home, photos courtesy of my youngest sister, Jan:


***************************************
The Lego Page

Lego: Disney Castle out of stock. Pretty amazing. This set was released in 2016. It's more than mature. No reason to expect this model to be "temporarily unavailable." One wonders how many fathers are buying this set for their six-year-olds in lieu of going to Disneyland this summer.


Available at Amazon for nearly $700, once you factor in taxes, et al.