Moving On -- March 11, 2020

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

TCM: I have never really paid attention to Joe E. Brown, but he is featured this week on TCM. Wow, I'm impressed. Really, really, really good. Then, a real treat. In Elmer The Great, Joe E Brown plays opposite Patricia Ellis. Wow, what a beauty. Who knew? Her wiki entry is quite moving. It puts a lot of stuff in perspective. Same with Claire Dodd, I guess.

It's purely coincidental. I had planned the change earlier today and now watching Elmer The Great, I know I made the right decision.

Somewhere between here and going over to have homemade stew with Arianna, our oldest granddaughter, I realized it was time to move on. Once I have a pretty good feeling about a topic, not Bakken-related, it's time to move on.

Moving on. I feel that way about both "Campaign 2020" and "Coronavirus." I won't be blogging about either any more on a regular basis. Tonight I really don't care how either turn out. I have my worldview / myth of both and will adjust my worldview as things change. [Yes, I am aware of the Oval Office speech earlier this evening.]

One last coronavirus-related graphic, the "North Dakota corona virus first aid kit." From a reader.

I'm moving on. Closest I could come:

Move It On Over, George Thorogood

Active Rigs Remain Steady At 56 But That's About All That One Can Say Today -- March 11, 2020

Active rigs:

#32.98	3/11/2020	03/11/2019	03/11/2018	03/11/2017	03/11/2016
Active Rigs	56	65	59	45	32

Based on the NDIC daily report it does appear that the Bakken has shut down for new business:

No new permits.

One permit renewal:

• Prima Exploration: a State permit in Divide County.

One permit canceled:

• CLR: an Irgens Rexall permit in Williams County.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 35336, A/drl, Hess, EN-Ruland A-LE-155-94-1201H-1, 33-061-04271, Alger, t--; cum 47K in 51 days; fracked 10/10/19 - 10/18/19; 7 million gallons of water; 84.9% water by mass; friction reducer, 0.17705 (which is the highest by far, on a percentage basis, of all I've seen so far tracking this), Three Forks:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2020	16	12400	12383	13084	10680	9402	1278
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	27243	27303	17628	22927	15468	7459
BAKKEN	11-2019	4	7313	7083	4	0	0	0

From the file report:

• spud date: August 6, 2019; 
• wellsite geological services began at the base of the Tyler formation at 2:40 a.m. on August 8, 2019;
• cease drilling: August 15, 2019
• target: Three Forks;  
• drilling the curve and the horizontal
• Lodgepole, top: 9,644' TVD
• curve: in the Lodgepole, began on August 9, at 5:00 p.m. (about 36 hours after WGS began)
• the curve began at 10,205' MD
• exited the formation at 10,955' MD
• upper Bakken shale: 10,355' TVD; exactly at projected vertical depth;
• middle Bakken: 10,377' TVD; background gas averaged 690 units; max of 1,633 units; 
• lower Bakken shale:10,450' TVD (which means the middle Bakken must have been 73 feet thick; if accurate, that's fairly thick; I think of the middle Bakken as generally being 20 to 40 feet thick); background gas averaged 1,047 units with max gas at 2,453 units; oil shows ranged from poor to fair;
• Three Forks: 10,506' TVD; two feet low to projected vertical depth; target; background gases averaged 754 units with max gas of 1,914 units;
• curve TD reached at 4:25 a.m, August 10, 2019; well bore ended 26' vertical feet inside the Three Forks formation;
• the horizontal:
• lateral drilling began at 3:25 p.m., August 11, 2019 (so a break of about 36 hours before beginning the lateral)
• ideal geological target: 27' below the top of the Three Forks formation;
• early background gases averaged 93 units with a max of 1,106 units
• the third quarter of the horizontal: background gas increased to 281 units with max gas reaching 713 units
• final quarter of the lateral: unremarkable
• TD: 1:00 p.m., August 15, 2019; almost exactly four days of drilling
• no shale strikes while drilling the Three Forks lateral
• sounds like a perfectly drilled well

Frack data not yet scanned in.

There are six EN-Ruland wells on two pads among this group. On one of the EN-Ruland pads are also several EN-Dobrovolny wells.

The EN-Ruland wells:

• 35336, see above;
• 35335, 2,030, .....1201H-4, Manitou, t12/19; cum 37K over 42 days;
• 35334, drl, .....1201H-5, Manitou, t--; cum 41K over 44 days;

• 19989, F/828, Hess, EN-Ruland A-155-94-1201H-3, Manitou, t3/12; cum 248K 9/20; remains off line 1/20; returned to production 3/20; 38 stages; 3 million lbs proppant;
  
• 19987, 1,521, .....1201H-2, Manitou, t9/11; cum 271K 8/19; remains off line 1/20;
• 19983, F/845, .....1201H-1, Manitou, t8/11; cum 266K 9/19; remains off line 1/20;

Note: the EN-Ruland wells are "Manitou oil field" wells except for the section line well which is an Alger well.

Again, no evidence of the parent-daughter problem that analysts report coming out of the Permian. The daughter wells are much better than the parent wells. This is not to say that the daughter wells might have been even better had the parent wells not been drilled earlier, but we will never know, will we? 

Other EN-Ruland well:

• 36796, drl/A, 3,053, Hess, EN-Ruland-LE-156-94-3328H-1, Alkali Creek, big well; 33 stages; 9.6 million lbs proppant; 7.4 million gallons of water; EN-Ruland wells are tracked here;
  

  Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
  BAKKEN	9-2020	24	24081	24019	11282	0	0	0
  BAKKEN	8-2020	31	19221	19182	10696	20851	20851	0
  BAKKEN	7-2020	31	16728	16752	10754	17965	17965	0
  BAKKEN	6-2020	30	22875	22924	40732	29862	29862	0
  BAKKEN	5-2020	31	31843	31675	68648	41519	41519	0
  BAKKEN	4-2020	1	1030	989	1424	4198	4198	0

 

Not From The Babylon Bee -- But Who Would Have Guessed? -- March 11, 2020

First we have this, which truly did look like a headline from The Babylon Bee but is not:

Then, we have the screenshot of the lede from that story:

In case you missed it the first time, she double-downed and used it a second time.

An aside: one wonders where she comes up with these ideas.

Then, google patroning and one gets this:

I finally had to visit a legitimate "dictionary" site and the word does not exist, unless I missed it (which is possible). If it didn't exist earlier this week, it exists now. LOL.

Anyway, more later, but I'm on my way to patron McDonald's.

I'm back. I did a twitter search to see if #aocmemes or #aocpatron existed. Pretty close. Pretty funny. 

Harold Hamm On Business News Networks -- March 11, 2020

I've not watched the video clips at these links:

https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6140553384001/

https://youtu.be/2kk5kW7BKx4

They were sent to me by a reader saying that Harold Hamm has been on CNBC and Fox Business News today.

A "huge thank you" to the reader for sending me the links.

This gives me a chance to remind readers that I posted a lengthy commentary on "how we got here" a couple of days ago.

********************************

Skiing

I may not have watched the Harold Hamm videos but I watched this video several times. This is Sophia, age five, skiing, taken this morning.

And another:

Breaking News: Italy Has Released Its Daily Figures -- Off The Charts -- Out Of Control -- March 11, 2020

Italy released their figures for the past 24 hours at 12:00 noon CT, March 22, 2020:

• Italy: 2,313 new cases; 196 new deaths;
• China: 36 new cases with 22 new deaths;
• Iran: 958 with 63 new deaths;
• Spain: 493 with 13 new deaths;
• Germany: 288 with 1 new death;
• South Korea: 242 with no new deaths;

A reminder: there was a report that the Italian numbers were artificially low yesterday because a major northern province -- Lombardy -- had failed to reports its numbers. If so, those numbers were aggregated into today's numbers.

Today's numbers as of mid-day, US:

The fatality rate in selected countries:

• Italy's fatality rate has been running about 5.9% or greater;
• the current fatality rate for Italy is 827 / 12,461 = 66%
• South Korea: 60 / 7,733 = 0.8%
• USA: 3%

From March 10, 2020:

• United States: 
• 4,856 coronavirus tests have been run in public health labs, said CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield. “We've got a new reporting system that has CDC, public health labs. We're going to get direct dumps from LabCorp and Quest so people are going to see all the tests done, where they are done. We will have a surveillance system that does that” Redfield said. [Comment: tectonic change for a government-run bureaucracy -- releasing unfiltered data.]
• Michigan: first two cases identified; governor declares emergency
• New York City, Westchester County: interesting time line:
• March 7, 2020: not on MSM radar scope
• March 8: 16 new cases in New York (state)
• March 9: no new cases posted, but CDC said there were now over 100 cases in New York state;
• March 9: about this time, Westchester County area; some areas placed in regional quarantine;
• March 10: no new cases posted
• March 11: as of 12:16 p.m CT, no new cases posted;

Although I was wrong about the public response to coronavirus, I am in agreement with the sentiment posited below: