ISO New England -- EIA Is Following Also -- January 23, 2019

They must be reading the blog.

I'm not the only one following ISO New England closely. This, from the EIA, just popped up on twitter.

ISO New England electricity production will fall short of demand:

• demand: 15,500 MWh
• net generation: 13,935 MWh
• 13,935 / 15,500 = 90%
• net generation falls short by 10%
• imports will make up the difference
• this doesn't tell the whole story because New England imports natural gas, also
• more nuclear energy scheduled to come off line over the next couple of years

The graphic:

Signing Off For The Night -- January 23, 2019

I'm done blogging for the day. I'm burned out. It doesn't happen often that I feel burned out but this is one of those nights. I don't know why. It just feels like I hit a brick wall.

Two things before I sign off for the night.

First, this graphic from twitter today.

Second, we may be entering a period in which things become very confusing to Americans. It is very possible that the glut of WTI will continue, dropping the price of WTI.

Americans will see that headline that there is a glut of oil, but they will see the price of gasoline rising.

Due to world events, the refiners are now desperately trying to source heavy oil to balance all that light oil for their refineries optimized for heavy oil. Refiners will be forced increase the price of their refined product as heavy oil becomes more expensive, and yet there will be that glut of WTI.

Obviously there are many, many other story lines but that certainly seems most plausible.

If that comes to pass, we can all thank President Obama for killing the Keystone XL which would have completely prevented this problem -- the Keystone XL was designed to bring heavy oil from Canada to the Gulf Coast.

Having said that, Canada currently has a curb on heavy sands production. I assume that the curb will be lifted soon and we will start to see increased CBR from Canada. It should be noted that despite the Keystone XL being killed, the Canadians seemed to be able to ship all the oil they produced via rail so the death of the Keystone XL may not be that big a factor.

The desperate need for heavy oil also puts Saudi Arabia back in the catbird seat, as they say. I'm not sure if Saudi oil is as good as that from Venezuela or Canada but it's heavier than WTI. So we'll see.

All things being equal, I see WTI falling in price (unless it follows the overall oil market and rises with "heavy oil") and gasoline becoming more expensive.

Complicating things, the refiners will soon go into their switch from winter blends to summer blends (always increases the price of gasoline). And, then we anticipate the driving season. All in all, I suspect WTI will struggle and remain in the $45 to $55 range; Brent will increase; and gasoline prices will rise significantly.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Seven New Permits -- January 23, 2019 -- At The National Level, Huge Crude Oil Build Reported By API

API weekly crude oil inventories: surprise, surprise, another build -- but look at the size of this build -- 6.55 million bbls;

• expectations - a small draw of 42,000 bbls 
• I love that "precision" -- 450 million bbls in storage (give or take a few million bbls) and analysts came up with a 42,000-bbl draw -- 42,000/450,000,000 = a nine with four zeroes in front of it before getting to the decimal point -- the AGW crowd would be pleased
• We'll have to wait until tomorrow morning to see what the EIA says

EIA confirms: US crude oil inventories surge by a whopping 8 million bbls. 

WTI: despite this massive build, WTI? Flat.

************************************

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today:
Wednesday, January 23, 2019

• 34197, 2,086, CLR, Norway 9-5H2, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 10K 11/18; 
• 33643, IA/n/d, CLR, Ransom 5-20H2, 33-053-08052, 8.7 million gallons water, 90.1% water by mass; Elidah, t--; cum --;  

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

• 34879, 1,066, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-4H, 33-053-08527, 9.8 million gallons water; 92% water by mass;Haystack Butte, t11/18; cum 13K after 17 days;
• 34878, 734, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-5H, Haystack Butte, t11/18; cum 9K after 16 days; 
• 34613, SI/NC, WPX, Benson 3HC, 33-053-08425, no frack data at FracFocus as of 11/18; Squaw Creek, no production data, 
• 34476, 386, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 2-1-36H-142-96, 33-025-03437, 9.1 million gallons, 92.9% water by mass; Manning, t7/18; cum 42K 11/18;
• 34475, 389, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 3-1-36H-142-96, Manning, t7/18; cum 47K 11/18;
• 23939, drl, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10E, Heart Butte,

Active rigs:

$52.66	1/23/2019	01/23/2018	01/23/2017	01/23/2016	01/23/2015
Active Rigs	63	57	38	47	157

Seven new permits:

• Operators: Equinor (4): EOG (2); Slawson
• Fields: Bull Butte (Williams); Parshall (Mountrail); Big Bend (Mountrail)
• Comments: Slawson has a permit for a Moray Federal well in 21-151-92; EOG has permits for a 2-well Austin pad in section 9-154-90; and Equinor has permits for a 4-well Sam pad in 30-156-102 (Bull Butte)

Three permits renewed:

• BTA: a 20002 Agate permit in Golden Valley County
• Crescent Point Energy: a CPEUSC Lowe permit in Williams County
• Lime Rock Resources: a Schneider permit in Dunn County

One permit canceled:

• EOG: a Clarks Creek permit in McKenzie County

Tick, Tick, Tick -- Maduro On The Brink? Drudge Banner -- January 23, 2019

Updates

Later, 12:34 p.m. Central Time: why I love to blog. Earlier today I posted the note below about Venezuela -- foreshadowing what I thought was going to be a breaking story soon. Now this from a very, very good source over at twitter. The source has an unusual hash-tag and an interesting way of "crowd-sourcing" a hashtag. I use that same hashtag when tweeting about the Bakken, #OOTT:

This is big.

Trump recognises Venezuela opposition leader Guaido as interim leader, says will use "full weight of US economic and diplomatic power" to pursue restoration of Venezuelan democracy.

Comment: you may remember Guaido from some years ago:

Comment: how long would it have taken a cautious politician to have made this decision. I think that another president might have made at least a dozen speeches on the situation and might have waited six months to a year to see how things played out before going bigley.

Next: sanctions on Venezuela. Do you think the White House is in contact with the CIA?

Chaos: for a White House that everyone says is so disorganized, it certainly seems to run "good enough." 

SOTU: at the same time, the president has told he will keep the "contract." Pelosi invited him to give the SOTU address in early January; she did not specifically deny him from coming to Congress; she just recommended that due to safety concerns, he should not come to Congress. Trump says "a contract is a contract" and the "contract" was Pelosi's letter inviting him. Doesn't sound like a disorganized White House at all.

Disorganized? Same day as all this is happening, it's easy to forget that the first story of the day is that the White House has nominated 51 for judges. That story was the headline story earlier this morning; it's not even on the front page any more.

Original Post

Road-to-Venezuela, tag here. Maduro on the brink? -- Drudge Report headline banner. Apparently if the UN won't step in to settle human rights issues, US VP Pence will. Amazing what the CIA can do when asked nicely. Trump simply mentioned in passing, "sanctions on Venezuela." Within days, the Drudge banner: "Maduro on the brink?"

Road-to-Germany: from oilprice --

The planned closure of all nuclear reactors in Germany by 2022 means that Germany needs to retain half of its coal-fired power generation until 2030 to offset the nuclear phase-out.

Germany ordered the immediate shutdown of eight of its 17 reactors in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in Japan, and plans to phase out nuclear power plants by 2022.
The phasing out of all nuclear power in Germany means that Europe’s largest economy needs to keep half of its coal-fired generation for another decade and possibly extend the deadline for completely phasing out coal.

“No other country getting out of coal is also getting out of nuclear power,” [according to a spokesperson].

Road-to-2020: there was a snippet somewhere today suggesting that Kamala Harris was filling her FTEs with Hillary staffers. If accurate that speaks volumes. Several factoids:

• Kamala Harris hiring Hillary staffers
• CNN has "gone with" Kamala
• Hillary has not been heard from for several weeks; amazingly, almost nothing during the government shutdown; no photo ops (of course, she has flip-flopped on this issue so often, probably doesn't have more to say)
• although we don't know yet, but it appears that the "evenings with Bill and Hill" tour will be a huge failure; the Houston event was postponed due to the death of Bush I; the next date is April 11, 2019, NYC

Road-to-amnesty: It looks like I'm wrong. I thought the narrative would move from "the wall" to "right-sizing the government" but it now appears the far right could lose big time. There is talk of "the wall" morphing to "all-out amnesty." In exchange for "the wall," Jared and team are willing to consider green cards for DACA/dreamers. It's the right thing to do but only if the wall is secure and laws are changed regarding "one foot on US soil" and "anchor babies." Waiting for Ann Coulter. 

As Expected, Huge Drop In Legacy Fund January, 2019, Deposits

The Legacy Fund is tracked here.

As bad as it was, the January, 2019, deposit still exceeded the average deposit for four (almost five) of the previous eight years.

***************************************