Monday, January 7, 2019

Another Nail In The Hubbert Peak Oil Coffin -- BB-Federal -- Hess -- January 7, 2019

This page won't be updated.

Hubbert said that once a well's production started declining it would never recover -- peak oil theory for an individual well -- so here we are:
  • 18105, 860, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-1, Blue Buttes, t2/10; cum 406K 11/18; off-line from 1/18 to 5/18; just brought back up on-line in 5/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20181723162573255342334230
BAKKEN10-20182450295169212769176910
BAKKEN9-20182966866893169010452104520
BAKKEN8-201828480848931658683068300
BAKKEN7-20183182398140236011456114560
BAKKEN6-201829655363151383765676560
BAKKEN5-201821451941951284588358830
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20182013491589257400340030
BAKKEN12-20173121352169273380838080

Gee, I wonder how that happened?

The Hess BB-Federal/BB-Chapin wells are tracked here.

Sloop John B, Brian Wilson and Al Jardin

Re-Posting For The Bakken Today -- January 7, 2019


$48.521/7/201901/07/201801/07/201701/07/201601/07/2015
Active Rigs64543954166

Six new permits: pending
  • Operators: XTO (5); Lime Rock Resources
  • Fields: Haystack Butte (McKenzie); Little Knife (Dunn)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 5-well Mandal/Hovet Federal pad in 29-149-97; Lime Rock has a permit for Shuck well in 33-144-97 (see below)
Two producers abandoned:
  • 15076, Hess, BLMU N-17HR, Williams County; a Madison well;
  • 27395, Lime Rock Resources, Shuck 4-28-33H, Dunn County (see above)
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: the Wold wells in Banks oil field are tracked here:
  • 34471, 1,573, Whiting, Wold 41-5-3H, Banks, t11/18; 13K after 29 days;
  • 34470, 2,283, Whiting, Wold 41-5- 2TFHR, Banks, t11/18; cum 17K after 19 days; see background here;
  • 34469, 2,714, Whiting, Wold 41-5-2HR, Banks, t11/18; cum 16K after 19 days;
  • 33015, 3,581, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-8, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --;
  • 33014, 3,426, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-7, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --
  • 34204, 2,971, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-8, Blue Buttes, t12/18; cum --; 
Non Non Rien N'a Changé, Les Poppys

Jet Fuel Prices Spike; ISO New England Grid Price Spikes -- January 7, 2019;

Tonight's NCAA championship game:
The vast majority of spreads seem to have settled at Alabama as a 5.5-point favorite.
The average over/under for the total score of the game currently stands at 57.5 points, per Vegas Insider.
57.5? LOL. Total points early in second period: 37.

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Back to Business

Read more here: https://www.thestate.com/sports/college/acc/clemson-university/article223974345.html#storylink=cpy

From Chesto at the The Boston Globe:
Amazon claims title of most valuable US public company: The e-commerce giant hit $797 billion in market value, overtaking Microsoft.
Wow, how far has APPL has fallen?

We have three Echo Dots/Alexa -- Amazon is on a roll. Amazon, under-promising, over delivering. Apple, over-promising, under-delivering.

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Back To Energy

ISO New England, link here.  ABC Nightly News reports major storm system to hit New England. It will be interesting to see how ISO New England fares. Spot prices in ISO New England spike above $200/MW at 8:00 a.m. this morning.


Jet fuel getting expensive, also. Link here.

Jet fuel differentials on the US Atlantic Coast climbed to their highest levels in 16 months Monday as stock levels in the region continue to sag.

Global Platts assessed jet barrels on Buckeye Pipeline in New York Harbor at the NYMEX February ULSD futures contract plus 13 cents/gal. That was up 4 cents from Friday and highest since it reached plus 14.50 cents/gal on September 7, 2017.
USAC jet fuel inventories fell 656,000 barrels to 8.29 million barrels, according to the latest US Energy Information Administration data. That was down just over a million barrels from the same period last year.
Think about this: in the latest EIA petroleum report --
  • there's a glut of oil
  • there's a glut of gasoline
  • refineries are operating almost at full capacity -- at over 97%
  • and, there a jet fuel supply issue.
What does that tell you about jet fuel demand over the holidays?
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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$48.521/7/201901/07/201801/07/201701/07/201601/07/2015
Active Rigs64543954166

Six new permits: pending
  • Operators: XTO (5); Lime Rock Resources
  • Fields: Haystack Butte (McKenzie); Little Knife (Dunn)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 5-well Mandal/Hovet Federal pad in 29-149-97; Lime Rock has a permit for Shuck well in 33-144-97 (see below)
Two producers abandoned:
  • 15076, Hess, BLMU N-17HR, Williams County; a Madison well;
  • 27395, Lime Rock Resources, Shuck 4-28-33H, Dunn County (see above)
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: the Wold wells in Banks oil field are tracked here:
  • 34471, 1,573, Whiting, Wold 41-5-3H, Banks, t11/18; 13K after 29 days;
  • 34470, 2,283, Whiting, Wold 41-5- 2TFHR, Banks, t11/18; cum 17K after 19 days;
  • 34469, 2,714, Whiting, Wold 41-5-2HR, Banks, t11/18; cum 16K after 19 days;
  • 33015, 3,581, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-8, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --;
  • 33014, 3,426, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-7, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum --
  • 34204, 2,971, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-8, Blue Buttes, t12/18; cum --;
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Sophia: Getting Skis For The Very First Time
December 22, 2018

T+62: Why AGW Mandates Are Not Benign -- January 7, 2019

Link here. The reason "mandates" are not just "symbols." It's going to be even worse in California.
The Massachusetts attorney general wants the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to delve deeper into whether a small Tennessee Gas Pipeline expansion is needed and how it would impact the state's ability to meet its greenhouse gas emissions goals.
The filing is another sign states are flexing their muscles in the natural gas permitting process in New England, where a sometimes constrained pipeline system coincides with a challenging regulatory climate for projects.
In pressing FERC to examine the need, Healey noted that less than two-thirds of the proposed capacity is subscribed through precedent agreements, primarily with Columbia Gas of Massachusetts.
She asked FERC to consider improvements already under consideration by Columbia. Healey also waded into the debate over how far FERC should go in considering GHG emissions.
The projects' cumulative GHG impacts should be evaluated to ensure they do not impair the state's ability to meet its emissions mandates under Massachusetts law calling for a 25% reduction from 1990 levels by 2020 and an 80% drop by 2050, the AG said. FERC must fully assess methane emissions from wellhead to burner tip, the AG added, including assessing potential for leaks and blowdowns.
Healey also pressed FERC to ensure its approval is conditioned on full compliance with the state's wetlands and endangered species regulations.
And she urged FERC to address the potential for inappropriate segmentation of its environmental review from other nearby gas projects.
And, I assume, she will ask FERC if they've taken into account the effect an underground pipeline will have on gophers, migratory ducks, sage grouse, and piping clovers. 

Animated Average Daily Temperature For The US At The EIA Natural Gas Dashboard

A reminder: the EIA natural gas storage "dashboard" has an animated "average daily temperature" map of the US. Really clever. Link here. At the site, click on "daily animation."

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The Amazing Bakken
A 22% Increase 
In Rig Efficiency/Completion Strategy Year-Over-Year

Shale oil operators have a problem -- WSJ. Maybe outside the Bakken they have a problem, but the Bakken doesn't have a problem.

In the graphic below:
  • Bakken efficiency almost 3x that of the Permian (1,600 vs 600).
  • Bakken percentage increase, year-over-year double that of the increase in the Eagle Ford, y-o-y.
Link here.


And looking at the initial production numbers for wells coming off the confidential list this week, the Bakken numbers might even be better than the estimates as shown above.