30-Second Elevator Speech -- March 28, 2018 -- Nothing About The Bakken

Driverless / autonomous driving: dead.

China / North Korea / US: huge turn of events. Xi-Trump-Kim triangulation. US seldom comes out in a "winning" position when two foes complete the threesome.

Mideast: off everyone's radar scope. Quiet won't last.

ObamaCare: back in the news. Most thought it was dead. Not.

Facebook: huge losses anticipated even if losses limited to a) no more selling data; b) lawsuits. If only revenue is from on-screen advertising, market value of Facebook plummets. When was the last time you clicked on an ad at your Facebook account?

California: civil war with itself over sanctuary cities. Link.

US auto industry: rolling back 2022 - 2025 CAFE standards could be worse for the auto industry than keeping them. With CAFE standards rolled back, US auto industry in a no-win situation: California vs US.

US auto industry, sticker shock: surveys suggest Americans unable to afford new models.

Tesla: I thought Tesla would survive 2018 just fine. But no more: a) Norway syndrome; b) Moody's downgrade; c) fiery crashes; d) poor craftsmanship; e) Jaguar - I-PACE - 20,000 auto fleet announced.

Market: everyone spooked.

Fake news: will only get worse. Print media: what you read, defines you.

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Shaden

See this post.

You can track the supertanker Shaden at this site.

Projected route of the Schaden:

Long, Long Note Regarding An MRO Pad -- Initial Production, If Accurate, Set New Bakken Records -- March 27, 2018

Update:

March 31, 2018: see comments below --

FYI: 33535 by Marathon in January produced 61,186 barrels in 21 days if the information is correct. At that rate for 31 days it would have been 90,322. 

#33535: Arkin 44-12TFH Bench 1. Recent lone well in Bailey looked like 45 stages with only 6 million lbs. of proppant? Comment: I do remember Lynn Helms suggesting the first bench of the Three Forks might have better wells than the middle Bakken. Overall, the middle Bakken will produce more due to a larger footprint, but the Three Forks, upper bench, well vs well, might actually produce better wells. Truly amazing, isn't it?

March 28, 2018: when I saw the initial monthly production data for #30135 below, I assumed the data had to be wrong, but then when I saw similar data from its sister wells, I figured the data had to be correct (there couldn't have been that many typos). But these monthly production numbers are quite incredible. When I questioned whether the data might be in error, a reader wrote (see first comment):

The improvement in output - most specifically the early months (and Marathon has been on an absolute tear lately) - would lead me to believe the latest iterations of fracturing are showing results like the ones you just posted.

Perhaps more explanations will be forthcoming on the next conference call, but effective introduction of micro proppants, skillful implementation of diversion products, competent monitoring of real time seismic which allow extensive fracturing in the most carbon-rich areas all tend to produce more hydrocarbons.

If the operators are using the elevated, induced pressure from the frac to "push" oil to the wellbore, more will be recovered - at least in the early going - from these recent completions.

The dynamic evolution in unconventional production continues at a still-dizzying speed as these above numbers indicate.

Original Post
For newbies: to put these wells-- down below -- in perspective --

• if you have one well, and the first month's production is 10,000 bbls of oil, open a bottle of champagne
• if you have six wells on one pad, and the average initial monthly production for each well works out to 10,000 bbls of oil, go out for a steak dinner and order two bottles of champagne
• if you have one well, and the first month's production is 30,000 bbls of oil, hire a financial advisor, take him/her to dinner with you; order at least three bottles of champagne
• if you have six wells on one pad, and the average initial monthly production of each well works out to 30,000 bbls of oil, quit your day job, move to Hawaii, and take your financial advisor with you; buy a vineyard in Napa Valley, California
• if you have six wells on a pad like the one below: call Warren Buffett; ask him if he needs another partner

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This note is a big deal, at least for me. This is something new for me. The  looks like the other gazillion posts on the blog regarding initial production data, but this one is clearly different. If you are at all interested in the Bakken, spend some time on this one.

Also, please help me out if I've made obvious errors. Of if you see something I missed. Or if I'm seeing something that doesn't exist, let me know.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and factual errors. I will correct them when found. The errors will not detract from the overall "picture" of this incredible pad.

Disclaimer: when I first started the post, I said that the production data for #30135 was most likely in error at the NDIC site. Once I completed production data for all the wells on the pad -- maybe I was really, really, really wrong.

Note: there are six wells / six file numbers identified on the pad, but there are seven horizontals clearly identified on the NDIC map; that hasn't been sorted out yet.

Note: this is something I had not seen before or if I had, I have missed it, or I did not miss it but did not pay attention to it. Whatever. But now I know I will watch for it. These wells are in the Antelope oil field, targeting the SANISH POOL. Some of these wells target the middle Bakken, some the first bench of the Three Forks and get this, one targets the second bench of the Three Forks. 
 

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Based on a sixth sense that sometimes helps me with the blog, my hunch -- this is an error and will eventually be corrected. Until then, we can dream, can't we (see disclaimer above):

• 30135, 4,881, MRO, Deane USA 24-22H, Antelope, Sanish, t12/17; cum 99K in 43 days; (and I'm sure the first full month of production (73,138 bbls crude oil; 111,373 mcf natural gas) is incorrect; 111,373 mcf = 18,556 boe + 73,138 bo = 91,693 boe in one full month, clearly a Bakken record, and clearly an error that will be corrected. Later, October 31, 2021: this is how far we've come. This was not an error; this is just how incredible the Bakken can be and it ever surprised me. These numbers are correct.
  

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2018	31	73138	73190	17241	111373	18783	84433
SANISH	12-2017	12	25957	25025	0	36007	0	33113

The geologist's report is not yet scanned into the file report.

API: 33-053-06522.  FracFocus: 

• fracked 10/21/2017 - 11/18/2017
• 15,987,691 gallons of water = 133,417,281 lbs of water
• water: 89.74% of total mass of injection fluid
• sand: 9.9962% of total mass of injection fluid
• 133,417,281 is 89.74% of what
• 133,417,281 = 0.8974 x ?
• 133,417,281 / 0.8974 = 148,670,918 lbs of injection fluid
• 0.09962 x 148,670,918 = 14,810,597 lbs of sand
• since my estimates usually come in low, this frack probably used 16 million lbs or more of sand (a huge frack) -- corresponds with the fracks for the wells on the same pad

The graphics (see also this post):

I said that the initial data presented for #30135 has to be in error, but look at the production data for the other five wells on the same pad:

• 33290, 4,204, MRO, Lena USA 14-22H, four sections, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages; 11.6 million lbs, t12/17; cum 94K 1/18; cum 422K 8/21;
  
• 30133, 4,855, MRO, Veronica USA 14-22TFH, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages, 12 million lbs, t12/17; cum 96K 1/18; cum 346K 8/21;
  
• 30488, 4,144, MRO, TAT USA 14-22H, Antelope, Sanish 36 stages, 15 million lbs, t12/17; cum 89K 1/18; cum 361K 8/12;
  
• 30131, 2,420, MRO, Blue Creek USA 14-22TFH-2B, Antelope, Sanish, Three Forks B2, 39 stages; 12.2 million lbs, t1/18; cum 15K 1/18; cum 218K 8/21;
  
• 30135, see above;
• 30134, 3,503, MRO, Rough Coulee USA 24-22TFH, Antelope, Sanish, 48 stages, 12.2 million lbs, t1/18; cum 73K 1/18; cum 327K 8/21;
  

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30134:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2018	31	67920	67279	31864	125210	21673	95889
SANISH	12-2017	15	4933	4756	0	9145	0	8589

30131:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2018	23	14898	14719	4777	24077	3686	18732

30488:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2018	31	62812	63010	49335	100083	17944	75102
SANISH	12-2017	13	26560	25606	0	42525	0	39563

30133:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2018	31	46219	47461	39112	75354	14042	56119
SANISH	12-2017	17	50049	48251	4870	87397	0	81788

33290:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2018	31	55287	55549	30460	101037	51139	43594
SANISH	12-2017	16	39157	38502	13572	69785	0	65414

Three New Permits; Six DUCs Completed -- March 27, 2018 -- This Page Still Being Updated

API crude oil inventory data:

• forecast: a build of 1.0 million bbls
• actual: a build of 5.321 million bbls 
• WTI after the announcement: nearly unchanged at $65.25

TSLA: down 8%, dropping $25 during normal business hours; down another dollar+ after hours trading. Moody's cut ratings from B2 to B3.

The impetus for the cut in rating is the company’s slipping production rates for its newer “Model 3” sedan, something that has been worrying multiple parties of late, as Barron's Ben Levisohn wrote earlier today. 

As Moody's put it: Tesla's ratings reflect the significant shortfall in the production rate of the company's Model 3 electric vehicle. The firm writes that it’s conceivable the company may have to do a large capital raise: The negative outlook reflects the likelihood that Tesla will have to undertake a large, near-term capital raise in order to refund maturing obligations and avoid a liquidity short-fall.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$65.25→	3/27/2018	03/27/2017	03/27/2016	03/27/2015	03/27/2014
Active Rigs	59	49	32	97	196

Three new permits:

• Operator: CLR
  Field: Banks (McKenzie)
  Comments: CLR has permits for a 3-well Pasadena pad in SWSW 11-152-99, Banks oil field

Eleven permits renewed:

• WPX (4): four Charles Blackhawk permits, all in Dunn County
• Thunderbird Resources (3): three Fleck permits in McKenzie County
• NP Resources (2): two Roosevelt permits in Billings County
• Petro Harvester (2): two RNL1 permits in Burke County

Two permits canceled:

• Petro-Hunt: two Moberg permits in Burke County

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 30135, 4,881, MRO, Deane USA 24-22H, Antelope, Sanish, t12/17; cum 99K in 43 days; (and I'm sure the first full month of production (73,138 bbls crude oil; 111,373 mcf natural gas) is incorrect
• 31610, 349, BR, He 5-8-20UTFH, Elidah, t2/18; cum --
• 31611, 467, BR, He 4-8-20MBH, Elidah, t2/18; cum --
• 31613, 450, BR, He 2-8-20MBH, Elidah, t2/18; cum --
• 32978, 10, BR, Dodge 3C TFH, Dimmick Lake, t1/18; cum --
• 33337, 56, BR, Dodge 2A TFH, Dimmick Lake, t1/18; cum --

Three permits reinstated:

• Slawson: three Hunter permits in Mountrail County

Garden State (New Jersey) NG Pipeline Expansion Program -- Williams -- Zacks Update -- March 27, 2018

Link here.

• phase 2
• expansion of the Transco pipeline system
• intended to bring additional natural gas to New Jersey Natural Gas
• phase 1 was commissioned September, 2017
• beginning point: Transco's Zone 6 Stations 210 Pooling Point in Mercer County, NJ (county seat: Trenton); a small county abutting Burlington County on the northwest (of Burlington County)
• new connection: Trenton Woodbury Lateral in Burlington County, NJ (2nd largest county in NJ)
• in addition to pipe, new compressor station and additional infrastructure
• New Jersey Natural Gas: services over a half million customer in six New Jersey counties
• Transco: wholly owned by Williams Partners
• the nation's largest-volume and fastest-growing interstate natural gas pipeline system
• mainline extends from south Texas to NYC
• Williams Partners CAPEX in 2018: $2.7 billion
• Trancso growth project: $1.7 billion

Meanwhile, somewhere in New Jersey, someone is building a 2.5 MW wind tower. If you do a google search you should be able to find an article on some green energy website.

CLR Bakken EURs Have Gone From 430 MBOE (2011) To 1,100 MBOE In Seven Years; CWC Have Decreased -- March 27, 2018

March 27, 2018: CLR presentation --

• 2011: 430 mboe
• 2014: 603 mboe
• 2015: 800 mboe
• 1H17: 980 mboe
• 2018: 1,100 mboe; payout period down to ten months

(1100 - 430)/430 = 156%.
But 1.56 * 430 = 670
2 * 430 = 860
3* 430 = 1290

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Notes for the Oldest Granddaughter

Other books on the RMS Titanic:

• Titanic: A Fresh Look at the Evidence by a Former Chief Inspector of Marine Accidents, John Lang, c. 2012

• appears to be perhaps the best of the lot noted on this page
• a very, very comprehensive coverage of the ship and the event
• biggest failure: fails to discuss bad steel/bad rivets even though there was an incredibly good book on this very issue published four years earlier

• What Really Sank the Titanic: New Forensic Discoveries, Jennifer Hooper McCarty & Tim Foecke, c. 2008

• Bad steel, bad rivets

• A Night to Remember, Walter Lord, c. 1955

In 1898 a struggling author named Morgan Robertson concocted a novel about a fabulous Atlantic liner, far larger than any that had ever been built. Robertson loaded his ship with rich and complacent people and then wrecked it one cold April night on an iceberg. This somehow showed the futility of everything, and in fact, the book was called Futility when it appeared that year, published by the firm of M. F. Mansfield.

Fourteen years later a British shipping company named the White Star Line built a steamer remarkably like the one in Robertson's novel. The new liner was 66,000 tons displacement; Robertson's was 70,000 tons. The real ship was 882.5 feet long; the fictional one was 800 feet. Both vessels were triple screw and could make 24 - 25 knots. Both could carry about 3,000 people, and both had enough lifeboats for only a fraction of this number. But, then, this didn't seem to matter because both were labeled "unsinkable." 

On April 10, 1912, the real ship left Southampton on her maiden voyage to New York. Her cargo included a priceless copy of the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam and a list of passengers collectively worth $250 million dollars. On her way over she too struck an iceberg and went down on a cold April night.

Robertson called his ship the Titan; the White Star Line called its ship the Titanic. This is the story of her last night.

Today: Titanic Tragedy: A New Look at the Lost Liner, John Maxtone-Graham, c. 2011

[Note: I watched the entirety of A Night To Remember, last night on TCM. I was riveted by the move. From wiki:

British docudrama based on the eponymous book by Walter Lord starring Kenneth More as the ship's Second Officer Charles Lightoller.

Regarded as one of the most historically accurate Titanic disaster films, with the exception of not featuring the ship breaking in half.

(There was still doubt about the fact she split in two when the book and film were produced. The accepted view at the time and the result of the inquires was that she sank intact; it was only confirmed that she split after the wreck was found in 1985.) Some effects scenes were 'borrowed' from the 1943 German film.

The author:

• maritime historian
• a Scottish-American New Yorker
• has written dozens of books about North Atlantic liners

Chapter 1: The Wireless Miracle

• it begins: "Surviving passengers and crew of Titanic owed their lives to two giants of transatlantic innovation, Samuel Morse and Guglielmo Marconi. Their combined achievements from opposite sides of the ocean established an incredible communication linkage, connecting continents, countries, and ships. Not surprisingly, their names have entered the language; there is the verb coinage to Morse and millions of Marconigrams have been dispatched and delivered. Hence they become obligatory subjects of this opening chapter."
• Samuel Finely Breese Morse, b. 27 April 1791, Charestown, MA
• graduated from Yale, Phi Beta Kappa, 1810 at the age 19
• started out in life as a painter; former president John Adams sat for him, as did Marquis de Lafayette and several members of Congress

Chapter 2: Glittering Night

Chapter 3: Hornblow at Queen's Island

Chapter 4: The Ocean Dock 

Chapter 5: Into the Boats

Chapter 6: Survival Sagas

Chpater 7: "Safe Carpathia"

• Joseph Boxhall: fourth officer of the Titanic; lifeboat survivor
• Captain Arthur Rosron: master of Carpathia
• Carpathia
• alternated immigrant runs from Fiume and Naples to New York
• upgraded for transatlantic service
• sailing out of Liverpool
• 100 first class, 200 second class, an astonishing 2,250 in third class
• five passenger levels: promenade, saloon, shelter, upper, and main decks
• first class: promenade and saloon decks
• second class: shelter dek
• third class: forward ends of the two lowest decks
• April 11, 1912: spring cruise, NYC to the Mediterranean
• 120 (1st class); 50 (2nd class); 565 in 3rd class
• 300 crew
• total: 1,035 souls on board
• 12:25 a.m. the Morse signal from the sinking ship (the CQD)
• In 1904, the Marconi company suggested the use of "CQD" for a distress signal. Although generally accepted to mean, "Come Quick Danger," that is not the case. It is a general call, "CQ," followed by "D," meaning distress. A strict interpretation would be "All stations, Distress."
• a 57-mile dash on a new course -- North 57 West toward the stricken Titanic
• the race would consume 3.5 hours
• shortly after 2:00 a.m. the White Star vessel's radio ceased transmitting, Carpathia was still 34 miles away
• shortly after 4:00 a.m. and as dawn broke, the Carpathia began picking up survivors
• it would take more than four hours to bring Titanic's 703 survivors and 5 dead aboard
• Carpathia surrounded by icebergs
• again, the Californian was incredibly "out of the loop"; it arrived on scene having no idea what was happening
• first class passengers on Carpathia refused to be bothered by all this
• no other vessel picked up anyone
• when Carpathia arrived NYC Pier 54, the most celebrated visitor: Guglielmo Marconi; the price of his company's stock had quadrupled since the news broke but he did not want to be perceived as profiting from disaster; yet at the same time, he was furious and mystified by inbound Carpathia's silence (the captain did not want a "circus" at NYC pier)
• 210 Titanic officers and crew survived; some rescued from freezing water (not in lifeboats)
• epilogue: Carpathia came to an end on 17 July 1918 when, like so many unsung wartime carriers, in a sixteen-ship convoy, was struck by two torpedoes 120 miles west of Fastnet
• in March 1918, Captain Arthur Rostron was the master of the troopship Mauretania 

Chapter 8: Crew Memoria

Chapter 9: Walter at Play