After A 160-Point Gain On The Dow Today, Futures Suggest The Rally May Hold -- October 18, 2017

Futures here (a dynamic link).

To Re-Balance: 37 Weeks -- October 18, 2017; Gasoline In The DFW Area As Low As $2.08; Generally About $2.29 / Gallon

US crude oil inventories: again, the original estimates were way off (posted last night). The EIA weekly petroleum report (a dynamic link) shows that there was a significant (?) decline in US crude oil inventories: declining by 5.7 million bbls. The number of weeks to "re-balance" decreased from 40 weeks to 37 weeks with that data:

Week	Date	Drawdown	Storage	Weeks to RB
Week 0	Apr 26, 2017		529.0	180
Week 1	May 3, 2017	0.9	528.0	198
Week 2	May 10, 2017	6	522.0	50
Week 3	May 17, 2017	1.8	520.2	59
Week 4	May 24, 2017	4.4	515.8	51
Week 5	May 31, 2017	6.4	509.9	41
Week 6	June 7, 2017	-3.3	513.2	60
Week 7	June 14, 2017	1.7	511.5	57
Week 8	June 21, 2017	2.5	509.0	62
Week 9	June 28, 2017	-0.2	509.2	71
Week 10	July 6, 2017	6.3	502.9	58
Week 11	July 12, 2017	7.6	495.3	47
Week 12	July 19, 2017	4.7	490.6	43
Week 13	July 26, 2017	7.2	483.4	38
Week 14	August 2, 2017	1.5	481.9	45
Week 15	August 9, 2017	6.5	475.4	35
Week 16	August 16, 2017	8.9	466.5	30
Week 17	August 23, 2017	3.3	463.2	29
Week 18	August 30, 2017	5.4	457.8	27
Week 19	September 7, 2017	-4.6	462.4	32
Week 20	September 13, 2017	-5.9	468.2	39
Week 21	September 20, 2017	-4.6	472.8	46
Week 22	September 27, 2017	1.8	471.0	46
Week 23	October 4, 2017	6.0	465.0	41
Week 24	October 12, 2017	2.8	462.2	40
Week 25	October 18, 2017	5.7	456.5	37

Other data from the weekly petroleum report:

• refineries still operating well below capacity, at 84.5%
• gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10 million bbls per day
• total motor gasoline inventories increased 0.9 million bbls last week

We will see the graph tomorrow:

• over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplies averaged over 9.3 million bbls per day, up by 2.9% from the same period last week

Here, in the DFW area, the increased gasoline inventories is reflected in price:

• the average price seems to be about $2.29 / gallon for regular unleaded gasoline
• easy to find gasoline at $2.08 / gallon but that is the lowest I've seen

ND Active Rigs Plunge To Just 55 -- October 18, 2017

Amazon - Texas: whoo-whoo! Austin, Texas, likely to get Amazon's $5 billion headquarters -- Business Insider. Based on the article, if Austin, Texas is #1, then Frisco, TX, is #2. Amazon will not announce until sometime in 2018. For its executives, DFW is a much better hub than Austin. Just saying.

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Active rigs:

$52.03→	10/18/2017	10/18/2016	10/18/2015	10/18/2014	10/18/2013
Active Rigs	55	32	67	190	184

Nine new permits:

• Operator: CLR
• Field: Dimmick Lake (McKenzie)
• Comments: CLR has permits for a 9-well Ravin pad in Dimmick Lake, McKenzie County; see below;

Four permits canceled:

• Petro-Hunt (3): two Coleman Federal and one Dagny Taggart permits, all in McKenzie County
• WPX: one Otter Woman permit in Dunn County

Five producing wells completed:

• 14514, SWD, CLR, Jackson 1-35H SWD, was a Madison well; Last Chance, t1/97; cum 30K 8/17;
• 28241, 415, Lime Rock Resources, Rebsom 5-14-23H-143-95, Murphy, t9/17; cum --
• 28242, 569, Lime Rock Resources, Rebsom 3-14-23H-143-95, Murphy, t9/17; cum --
• 28243, 683, Lime Rock Resources, Rebsom 4-14-23H-143-95, Murphy, t9/17; cum --
• 32830, 1,983, Enerplus, Smooth Green 152-94-18A-19H, Antelope, Sanish pool, t9/17; cum --

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Existing well:
18384, 380, CLR, Ravin 1-1H, Dimmick Lake, t7/10; cum 121K 8/17;

DAPL Donations To Emergency Responders -- October 18, 2017

Story here.

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Once Again, It's That Time Of The Year To Remind Drivers About Deer

Be sure to read the comments at the YouTube video. An example:

Sure, interesting idea, but then you'd have to have "Deer Crossing Detour" signs all over the place to show the deer where the new crossing is. AND those signs would be an eyesore, and they ain't cheap! Did she even CONSIDER that??

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #12 -- October 18, 2017 -- Natural Gas: Haynesville Has Almost Half What Qatar Has -- HUGE!

This is absolutely why I love to blog. I have just spent a fair amount of time going through the Financial Times article asking whether the US shale revolution has peaked. I check my mail and I find a link to this story in the WSJ: an old fracking hot spot makes a comeback. The Haynesville Shale in Louisiana is being reborn, with the number of active drilling rigs tripling in the past year.

So, to answer the question posed by the Financial Times, no, an emphatic "no," the US shale revolution has not peaked. In fact, with exports of crude oil now increasing, one could argue the US shale revolution is only just beginning.

Now, back to the linked WSJ article. From the article:

A new report by the U.S. Geological Survey estimates the Haynesville and nearby Bossier shales contain more than 300 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, up from roughly 70 trillion cubic feet in its last survey in 2010. [And this is at $3-natural gas.]

The Haynesville Shale, a giant natural-gas field in northwest Louisiana, was one of fracking’s hottest spots a decade ago. But it fizzled out about five years ago as gas prices plunged and drillers focused on finding oil next door in Texas. Now, the Haynesville is being reborn as companies with longstanding positions in the area, such as Chesapeake Energy Corp., and newcomers seeking opportunity rush back in and drill again.

Gas production from the Haynesville has risen more than 20% so far this year, to more than 7 billion cubic feet a day from less than 6 billion in January, according to the U.S. Energy Department. The number of rigs active in northern Louisiana parishes and the Texas portion of the field has more than tripled in the past year to 44, according to oil field services company Baker Hughes Inc.

Chesapeake Energy has been learning how to get more out of the ground by drilling and fracking longer wells, Mr. Patterson told investors earlier this month. Chesapeake, which now produces more than 1.2 billion cubic feet of gas each day in the Haynesville, plans to ramp up efforts to re-frack old wells where production is starting to peter out to squeeze more out of them, using newer technology.

QEP Resources Inc. is also re-fracking 30 Haynesville wells this year.

Most WSJ articles have 0 - 5 comments or so. This article currently has 56 comments which suggests a considerable amount of interest in this subject. Some comments on the comments:

• Yiquan Hu is an idiot. At least his / her comment suggests an idiot wrote it.
• Jim Decker is right on target: drilling does not cause earthquakes. Earthquakes associated with fracking have to do with waste water (produced water) being injected back into another deep well. This is almost totally an Oklahoma/crude oil issue and has nothing do to with the Haynesville. With regard to water table contamination: this is "total leftist propaganda."
• David Cates: a nominee for the Geico Rock Award.

By the way, from an earlier post:

• May 16, 2017: Haynesville experiencing a resurgence as takeaway is bottled up in the northeast.

The Haynesville is tracked here. Occasionally.

From an earlier post regarding natural gas reserves:

Now, let's go back and re-run the numbers that were posted earlier:

• that recent huge Mediterranean natural gas find: 30 trillion cubic feet
• Barnett, revised USGS figures: 53 trillion cubic feet
• Utica, newly revised figures: 782 trillion cubic feet
• Marcellus, EIA revised estimates: 65 trillion cubic feet, "proved" reserves

• October 18, 2017, Haynesville: USGS survey -- 300 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, up from roughly 70 trillion cubic feet in its last survey in 2010.

• Bakken/Three Forks, USGS estimate: 7 trillion cubic feet
• Qatar: 800 trillion cubic feet, wiki, conversion