Making America Great Again -- Joblessness Falling In Trump-Supporting States -- August 20, 2017

Active rigs:

	8/20/2017	08/20/2016	08/20/2015	08/20/2014	08/20/2013
Active Rigs	53	32	75	191	184

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Making America Great Again

Jobs. From The Wall Street Journal:  Joblessness Falls Quickly in Several Trump-Supporting States.

Swing states that played a key role in electing Donald Trump president have posted some of the biggest declines in unemployment during the early phase of his administration.

Six states voted for President Barack Obama, a Democrat, in 2012 and then Mr. Trump, a Republican, in 2016: Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The median unemployment rate of those switchover states has fallen far faster than the national median this year, according to an analysis of data released by the Labor Department on Friday. The median rate of those states stood at 3.9% as of July, down from just under 5% in December. By comparison, the national median fell to 4.1% in July from 4.7%.

Among the switchover states, Wisconsin and Michigan have seen unemployment fall the quickest this year. Over the past three months, the average jobless rate in Michigan fell nearly 1.2 percentage points, to 3.9%, compared with the final quarter of 2016, just before Mr. Trump took office. Only three other states in the U.S. saw a deeper drop in joblessness.

The rate fell 1 percentage point in Wisconsin to 3.1%. That drop ranked seventh in the U.S. Florida, where joblessness stood at 4.2% in July, ranked 12th with a 0.7 percentage point drop.

Most switchover states are in the Midwest, where the economy has diversified in recent years but still remains big in manufacturing.

Wow, Wow, Wow! Sempra Is The Mystery Third Bidder For Oncor -- August 19, 2017

Link here. Sempra is the mystery third bidder for Oncor. Warren has said he has made his final offer. If so, it looks like Warren is out of the bidding. I'll leave the poll up just for the fun of it.

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Re-Charging

Some people have written me suggesting that it is "normal" for wells to come back with increased production when they are shut-in for a number of months and then brought back on line. That's not my impression in the Bakken; it may occur (sometimes/often) but I don't know if I can call it "normal" for wells to come back stronger simply from recharging (being taken off-line for several months).

When I see a Bakken well that has significantly increased production after being off-line for a while, I assume it is something other than re-charging until proven otherwise.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about. This well is in a great oil field, Clarks Creek, and yet after being off-line for almost a year, there was no bump in production once it was brought back on line (and, yes, perhaps the operator choked it back, limiting production):

• 20891, 603, EOG, Clarks Creek 12-0719H, Clarks Creek, t8/11; cum 268K 6/17:

Monthly production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2017	25	2533	2488	7132	3764	796	2767
BAKKEN	5-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	1	0	72	0	6	5	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	8	619	746	53	1398	1324	14
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	2554	2666	25	727	479	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	2338	2227	499	3132	2876	10
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	2162	2196	454	3966	3579	147

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Notes to the Granddaughters

While the older sisters are on their way to Nashville to see the eclipse, Sophia is shopping for groceries for Papa. Yes, she has my credit card. LOL.

A Confusing Well; Perhaps A Reader Has Insight -- August 19, 2017

Updates

May 18, 2019: #26419 and #17356 are about 100 feet to the west of #26007 and #26006.

November 28, 2017: regardless of what's going on, this is an incredible well:

• 31310, 1,179, Hess, AN-Brenna-LW-153-94-3130H-1, Antelope, Sanish pool, t9/16; cum 227K 11/17; 

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	9-2017	30	13377	13642	6945	44359	42966	1093
SANISH	8-2017	26	15274	15146	5110	31773	27509	4033
SANISH	7-2017	31	16424	16401	6320	46744	46007	430
SANISH	6-2017	30	19723	19472	5399	43560	38639	4621
SANISH	5-2017	31	19771	20015	3508	32290	28507	3482
SANISH	4-2017	30	12444	12253	1654	18123	17822	1
SANISH	3-2017	29	14195	14474	2132	20791	20492	35
SANISH	2-2017	28	12718	12516	2195	18252	17997	8
SANISH	1-2017	31	20091	20018	2767	31412	25040	6075
SANISH	12-2016	27	16638	16576	2523	24874	12254	12367
SANISH	11-2016	30	19632	19657	3424	24274	6190	17785
SANISH	10-2016	31	19956	20622	5398	28515	706	27499
SANISH	9-2016	13	20717	19686	4276	26433	1	26312

Original Post

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. I may be seeing things that don't exist. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Look at this post. I am still unable to explain the jump in production in 9/16 of #25961. [Update, January, 2018: just prior to the jump in production: a work-over rig on site, and a new pump put in; no evidence that is was re-fracked; no sundry form to suggest a re-frack and FracFocus does not show a re-frack.]

Note that all three wells on this 3-well pad were taken off-line 8/16, and then brought back on line in the next month or so. Generally, when one sees that, it means that a neighboring well was fracked.

In this case, when I originally looked at these three wells, I could find no evidence of a neighboring well being fracked.

Today, I took another look.

It turns out a neighboring well was fracked 8/16, the very month that these three wells were taken off-line.

But it still doesn't make sense.

All three wells showed a bump in production, though the Three Forks wells showed a minimum jump in production whereas the middle Bakken well showed a hug jump in production (from 5,000 bbls/month to 14,000 bbls / month). The jump in production did not last particularly long, but it's hard to believe the jump in production from 6,000 bbl/s month to 14,000 bbls/month was due to "recharging" when the well was off-line for less than a month.

I found the well that was fracked in 8/16 that was probably the reason for BR taking these wells off-line:

• 31310, 1,179, Hess, AN-Brenna-LW-153-94-3130H-1, Antelope, Sanish pool (Three Forks), t9/16; cum 176K 6/17; a "small" frack, only 3.1 million gallons of water; 13% sand by weight;

The graphic:

Again, there are many, many problems with this:

• distance between horizontals;
• different formations;
• closer horizontals, targeting same formations, jump in production much less than #25961

I still feel uncomfortable with this one but another good example of the peculiarities of the Bakken. 

New CLR Florida Wells Starting To Be Reported -- August 19, 2017

Link here.

Note the amount of proppant: 22 million lbs.

Florida wells are tracked here. 

Saturday, August 19, 2017

Active rigs:

$48.73	8/19/2017	08/19/2016	08/19/2015	08/19/2014	08/19/2013
Active Rigs	53	32	74	192	183

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The Bubble

I haven't looked at Scott Adams' blog in a long time. A reader linked me to one of his more recent posts which helps me put events of the past week in context.

It also helps explain the action of the stock market this past week. 

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Notes To The Granddaughters 

At DFW on their way to Nashville, via Atlanta, GA, to see the eclipse.  Daughter and two granddaughters. The third granddaughter, Sophia, will remain here in Grapevine (Dallas) to observe the eclipse with me.