Saturday, August 30, 2014

Labor Day Weekend, 2014; Return Trip To Grapevine; Not Much About The Bakken

On the road; won't be posting as often, consistently for next few days.

Mama's Broken Heart, Miranda Lambert
************************************

I just saw the closing price for Friday, August 29, 2014, for CLR.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investments decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here..

What else?

North Dakota awash in oil royalties -- collecting way more than forecast.  The Dickinson Press is reporting:
North Dakota is poised to collect nearly $9.8 billion in oil tax revenue during the next two years and $2.2 billion more than previously forecast for 2013-15, according to a new outlook released Friday that had elected leaders calling for additional tax relief, greater funding for western counties and more accurate forecasts.
The preliminary forecast from the state Office of Management and Budget assumes that oil production will grow to 1.3 million barrels per day by the end of the current biennium on June 30, 2015, and to 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of the 2015-2017 budget cycle, OMB Director Pam Sharp said.
Gov. Jack Dalrymple noted that the revised projection for 2013-15 shows general fund revenues of $4.88 billion, or about $285 million more than the legislative forecast prepared in February 2013.
The general fund, which covers the general operations of state government, is projected to end the biennium with a balance of $614 million – eight times higher than the $80 million projected in the legislative forecast and $157 million more than an update Sharp presented to state lawmakers in March.
*******************************
North Platte, NE: I see the local newspaper has this headline: "Russia Outright Lied -- Obama." The story has to do with the Ukraine. "Outright lied." Sort of like ObamaCare -- "If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan."

******************************* 
Global Warming

Speaking of outright lies (their words, not mine):
Can't make this stuff up. And there's more (must have been a slow news cycle this labor day weekend):

Europe at a tipping point: note the many interesting data points in this article, as reported by Bloomberg:
  • in Europe, it was the coolest August since 2006
  • inventories of heating oil in private homes in Germany at their highest since 2011
  • Germany's solar output is forecast to peak at 20 gigawatts on September 5, 2014 (the record was 24.2 gigawatts on June 6) [Germany and the EU count wood-fired plants as renewable energy; considered "carbon-neutral" -- really?]
So, how fast have global temperatures risen? From the "leaked" UN paper? 0.85 of a degree since 1880. Again, not even a full degree in 135 years. I'm impressed how accurate the "science" of global warming was in 1880. The rise in sea level since that time was measured in millimeters.

From the land of fruits and nuts. California's state Assembly passed a bill requiring railroads transporting Bakken and Canadian oil to inform the state of such movements; meanwhile the same state Assembly rejected a bill to require background check on ammunition buyers. So, apparently nine-year old girls can buy ammunition for their Uzis without a background check. Or at least their parents can.

*********************************************

Russia is one of Germany's major trading partners. I can't imagine Germany being eager to cooperate much with President Obama's call for more sanctions on Russia. 
... coincide with figures showing annual inflation slowed to 0.3 percent in the euro zone this month. That was the weakest rate of growth since October 2009 and marks 11 consecutive months of prices growing by less than 1 percent.
The deflationary danger policy makers have been denying for months may be upon them.
This adds to the gloomy outlook in Europe. One-, two- and three-year yields are negative in Germany, meaning investors are paying for the privilege of the perceived safety of German debt. A critical money-market rate, the Effective Overnight Index Average -- Eonia for short -- dropped below zero for the first time yesterday, reaching -0.004 percent.
*****************************

I see the Islamist State has taken a US Embassy residential compound in Libya (news report August 31, 2014). Of course it's not THE "Islamist State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)." But ISIL's self-proclaimed status as a caliphate it claims religious authority over all Muslims across the world. Whatever. Wasn't it just this past Thursday the president said he would protect US embassies and consulates? No more Bengahzis. Yes, I know, US citizens left the Libyan embassy a month ago or so. A hasty retreat.

*****************************
Note to the Granddaughters

I stayed overnight with friends in Bowman. Departed about 10:30 a.m. Saturday morning; now in Sturgis. Looks like a mini-motorcycle rally; weather is perfect.

Short stop in Sturgis. 2:03 p.m. Saturday.

*************************

Chadron, NE: short stop at 4:45 p.m. Incredibly beautiful countryside; lots of water in the creeks, rivers. Lots of cattle.

***************************

North Platte, NE: short stop at 9:25 p.m. Again, a great drive, beautiful countryside, but now, we begin the drive at night. End of scenery.

***************************

Salina, KS: short stop at 7:25 a.m. Sunday. Slept west of Hays, KS, during the night. Good rest. Big electrical storm during the night; lots of rain.

***************************

Travel center south of Wichita, KS,  9:44 a.m. Sunday. I always stop here. McDonald's has one outlet, wi-fi.

***************************

Arrived home safely, about 4:00 p.m. I still enjoy driving through Oklahoma City; I don't know why. I've never stopped in Oklahoma City but there's something about the freeways and the flow of the traffic that make it quite enjoyable. It also means I'm almost home (when returning) and it's the first big city I see when I am heading north. Maybe that has something to do with it.

Friday, August 29, 2014

A Most Haunting Graphic -- August 29, 2014

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Yahoo!Finance graph only goes back to 1985, but the line was fairly flat and unchanging for the previous decades also. The challenge: coming up with an explanation for the dramatic "change" -- marked by the red line, from 1993 to 2001:



**************************
Random Update On WTI Futures

This past week, very quietly, it appears WTI hit bottom and turned. It's up almost another dollar today, coming off its lows of $93 earlier this week to solidly above $95 at the moment.  Operators who had contracts for $100 oil this past week did very, very well.

Whiting surges. EPD continues its move. CLR is up over 1%. The EPD, CLR stories are interesting. I'm not sure what to make of WLL. Are KOG investors moving to WLL? KOG continues to report great wells. 

Week 35: August 24, 2014 -- August 30, 2014

I'm doing this early because I will be traveling later today/tomorrow, and don't when/if I get to the internet.

Operations
Shale operators have positive cash flow; first time since 2008 
Halcon with two "high-IP" wells
Statoil cutting back
Ron Burgundy no longer confidential
September NDIC hearing agenda released

Bakken costs
Transportation costs for fracking sand from Wisconsin

Natural gas
Possibility of mega-natural gas power plant in Emmons County

CBR
New CBR terminal proposed; Plaza, ND (near Parshall)
NYT fails to mention the Keystone XL

Pipelines
Wind Ridge Pipeline, one of the largest in decades

Bakken economy
Map of Watford City development, one subdivision
Man-camps going upscale
Port of Vancouver inks deal with North Dakota
Update of new underpass in Williston
Update on Harvest Hills, The Ridge, northeast of Williston

For investors
CLR, EPD to splits shares 2:1

Update On Wind Ridge Pipeline, One Of The Largest Gas Pipelines To Be Built In North Dakota In Ten Years -- August 29, 2014

Updates

April 11, 2016: update on this pipeline -- the application for this project has been withdrawn. 
The application for regulatory approval by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for the planned Wind Ridge Pipeline to carry natural gas to near Spiritwood has been withdrawn, according to Tim Rasmussen, public relations manager for WBI Energy Transmission, owner of the project.
The planned 96-mile pipeline would have connected to the Northern Border Pipeline near Zeeland, N.D., and angled to the northeast to near Spiritwood where it was intended to provide natural gas to the planned CHS fertilizer plant. 
Original Post
 
The problem with blogging on the Bakken, or following the Bakken, or driving around the Bakken, everything becomes a blur. So much is happening, that unless "-est" is in the headline, the story may not catch one's attention.

Wind Ridge Pipeline is just one of a thousand examples. I assume I've come across Wind Ridge Pipeline before, but never paid any attention to it until Steven sent me the link to the story, and I happened to see a word in the lede with "-est" in it.

The Jamestown Sun is reporting:
One of the largest natural gas pipelines in North Dakota in the last decade is in the planning and permitting process, according to Tim Rasmussen, spokesman for WBI Energy, a division of MDU Resources Group.
Rasmussen said Wind Ridge Pipeline LLC will cost an estimated $120 million and will serve the proposed CHS nitrogen fertilizer plant at Spiritwood.
“Construction of the pipeline is contingent on CHS moving forward,” he said. “In order to meet their timelines we had to start the pre-filing process now.”
The pipeline will transfer natural gas from the Northern Border Pipeline near Zeeland, ND, to the CHS plant at Spiritwood for conversion into nitrogen fertilizer. The 95-mile pipeline project will cross Mcintosh, Logan, LaMoure and Stutsman counties with 16-inch pipe.
I have blogged at least twice on the Spiritwood fertilizer plant, but had missed or did not know about the "largest" pipeline that would be built to bring natural gas to the plant.

Other posts regarding the CHS plant:
As Joe Biden would say, this is "a really big freakin' deal."

By the way, going back to all those links brings us back to all those propane-shortage stories. Somehow we weathered that, also.

********************************
Meanwhile, Back At Refinery....
The Dakota Prairie Refinery southwest of Dickinson is about 80 percent complete ...

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
With an estimated 20 percent of work still to finish — “the hardest,” said project manager Jeff Rust — the $350 million refinery is on schedule to begin processing roughly 20,000 barrels of crude oil per day later this year. It will produce about 300 barrels of natural gas and 7,000 to 8,000 barrels of diesel per day, much of which will be sent to local wholesalers and sold in the community.
**********************************

Twelve (12) new permits --
  • Operators: Slawson (7), CLR (4). Hunt
  • Fields: Big Bend (Mountrail), Dollar Joe  (Williams), Parshall (Mountrail)
    Comments:
Seven (7) producing wells completed:
  • 23256, 642, SM Energy, Arnold 16X-12H, Siverston, t4/14; cum 28K 6/14;
  • 23257, 776, SM Energy, Dorothy 16-12H, Siverston, t4/14; cum 55K 6/14;
  • 24476, 1,890, Statoil, M. Olson 20-29 6H, Painted Woods, t7/14; cum --
  • 26212, 1,967, EOG, Wayzetta 40-1424H, Parshall, 1920-acre although it's technically a long horizontal, in fact it really only drains one section (section 23), t3/14; cum 124K 6/14;
  • 26346, 2,384, Statoil, Cvancara 20-17 7H, Alger, t7/14; cum --
  • 26750, 615, SM Energy, Rick 16X-12H, Siverston, t4/14;
  • 27080, 1,070, Arsenal, Allison Ann 10-3H,

Port Of Vancouver (Washington State) Inks Deal With North Dakota Department Of Agriculture -- August 29, 2014; Man-Camps Going Up-Scale

I thought I posted this story linked at another site, but I guess I didn't. I think I wrote it up, and then decided to delete it. There were reasons for deleting it, but now a reader sends me another link on the same story, with a bit more background. The Columbian is reporting:
Aiming to boost trade between North Dakota and the Pacific Rim, the Port of Vancouver has launched a new venture of leasing rail cars to move agricultural products to the West Coast.
The port's executive director, Todd Coleman, traveled to Fargo, N.D., on Wednesday to sign a memorandum of understanding with the North Dakota Department of Agriculture to move the program forward.
Rail cars carrying steel pipe, aluminum ore and other oil-industry equipment from the port to North Dakota now often return to the port empty. Under the agreement, rail cars leased by the port will return west filled with wheat, corn, soybeans and other crops. The rail cars would then be offloaded and put into ships bound for Asia and Latin America.
*************************************


About five minutes ago, I mentioned that it is literally impossible to keep up with everything going on in the Bakken. There are now weekly periodicals devoted only to the Bakken.

One digression: boy, this is amazing -- I'm blogging from a coffee shop on Main Street in Williston. I mentioned earlier that one of the biggest changes I've seen this visit has been the change in demographics in Williston since my last visit: I am seeing lots of children; young, single women; families; couples. (This would lead to another digression on how the "wild, wild West" was transformed but I can't keep getting off on tangents.) What leads me to this digression: at a nearby table are six women, mostly 25 to 30, but one 40-ish-year-old woman. The group appears to be led by a woman in her mid-20's, possibly late 20's, clearly with an MBA background. Her ethnicity is interesting: she may have a tinge of Asian. They are working some business issues; if they are in the Bakken, it must have to do with oil and gas. A huge truck is now stopped in front of the window, here on Main Street, loaded with 3-inch polyethylene tubing, no doubt for the huge infrastructure project on south Main. Two more young women, individually, have stopped by, gotten their coffee and are heading for work. I do believe there were more women visiting the coffee shop this morning than men.

But back to what I had planned to post. This is from Market Watch  -- and now another young woman enters the coffee shop -- again, this is such a change from last year -- so a national web site notes htis: "Airgas opens new location in Dickinson, North Dakota, to service Bakken shale oil region."
Airgas, Inc. one of the nation’s leading suppliers of industrial, medical, and specialty gases, and related products, today announced that it has recently opened a new location in Dickinson, North Dakota, significantly enhancing its local product and service capabilities for customers in the Bakken shale oil region. 
n addition to core industrial gases, welding-related equipment and safety supplies for in-store purchase or local delivery, customers in the region can now more easily access Airgas’ unrivaled national capabilities at a local level – from Red-D-Arc’s rental welders and power generation equipment to Airgas Specialty Gases’ complex hydrocarbon blends for BTU measurement and process stream analysis to the expertise of Airgas’ product and process specialists. Airgas On-Site Safety Services, which specializes in safety monitoring, certification, and equipment rental services at customer sites in the oilfield and construction industries, also serves customers through Airgas’ new Dickinson location. 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. 

And now, four people in line for coffee: three women, one man. Yes, the demographics in the Bakken are changing. And they all have smiling faces. Seldom is a discouraging word heard in the Bakken.

********************************
It Never Quits

The Bismarck Tribune is reporting:
Due largely to the success of its man camps in places like North Dakota’s Bakken oil field, Reliant Asset Management was named the third fastest growing private business by Inc. Magazine.
Businesses can apply to be part of the magazine’s annual list. Those accepted to the 2014 list had the highest growth in revenue from 2010 to 2013, said Reliant co-founder Barry Roman.

Reliant is based in Arlington, Va., but has eight man camps in North Dakota, as well as camps in Alberta and Texas. Man camps now account for two-thirds of Reliant’s business nationwide and in Canada. The 1,300 beds the company has in the state account for 30 percent of its rooms.
“The crew camps as you know them have really changed in North Dakota,” Roman said. “You’re not going to see 200 to 500 guys sleeping in the same building.”
Roman said many oil related companies are not paying for living and travel expenses like they were two years ago. He said now many are compensating their workers per diem to incentivize them to move and live in North Dakota. Because of this, he said Reliant’s more cabin-like camps are becoming popular.
I noticed the same this trip. The man-camps are a'changing. Going more upscale.