Monday, November 4, 2013

Germany Is Producing Way Too Much Electricity, Just As Three New Coal-Fired Power Plants Come On-Line

This is an incredible story .... except for the fact we've been blogging about this for about two years. Europe is simply in trouble with regard to energy. But I didn't expect this. I'm as surprised as Ms Merkel.

Actually, the entire European energy story is very confusing to me.


Having said that, it seems Europe is perfect for all-EVs:
  • Germany, Sweden producing excess electricity; exporting electricity
  • Europe could be only continent that imports oil, natural gas going forward
  • Europe is densely populated, with short commutes
Bloomberg is reporting:
Germany, Europe's biggest power market, is poised to open its first new coal-fired plants in eight years, just as prices slump because of a glut of electricity.
[Germany] will bring three new plants online by December, enough to supply more than 4.4 million homes. The nation is already producing so much electricity that exports will surpass last year’s record in 2013, ...
Power prices may slide 12 percent by 2016, according to UBS AG in Zurich. 
“Merkel’s government has put itself in a dilemma. On the one hand it is promoting green energy, on the other hand, we see all those hard coal plants coming online now. I don’t see anything bullish in the power market.”
German power for next-year delivery is headed for a third annual decline, its longest losing streak since trading began on the Leipzig, Germany-based European Energy Exchange AG in 2002.
Who wudda ever guessed twenty years ago that electricity was going to get less expensive?  Other stories suggest that renewable energy projects could actually make things worse for the European grid. But we'll see.

The irony is that the Germans pay some of the highest utility costs in Europe. And yet, not long ago, it was reported that Europe may be the only continent in the universe to depend on imported energy.

SRE Traded At A New High Today

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read at this site or think you may have read at this site.

SRE traded at a new high today. Hoo-ah!

At Investors Business Daily: SRE has doubled since its low in 2011, and pays a dividend.
Sempra Energy's stock has more than doubled since an August 2011 low and was resting Tuesday near an all-time high.
That's pretty good for a public utility that pays a dividend, too.
San Diego-based Sempra (SRE) provides electricity and natural gas to 31 million customers around the U.S. and in Latin America. It was formed in 1998 from the merger of San Diego Gas & Electric and Southern California Gas.
"That's pretty good for a public utility that pays a dividend, too."

I was unaware of any public utility not paying a dividend. [Please don't write to tell me about those that don't pay a dividend; I don't want to have my myth destroyed.]

In my little investing world, San Diego Gas & Electric was one of the first companies I ever bought stock in (BNI was one of my first, along with MDU). I bought SDGE through a full-service broker; discount brokers were not yet around. I remember asking the full-service broker which utility she recommended; she didn't have any advice, just told me, and I'm paraphrasing: "throw a dart." I wish my dart had hit AAPL. LOL. 

By the way, a 2.7% dividend does not look all that interesting for a utility, but one must remember that just a few years ago, back in 2009, SRE was paying 35 cents/share. It is now paying 63 cents/share with another dividend hike likely early next year, if not sooner.

Twelve (12) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; Only Two Non-Descript Wells Coming Off Confidential List Tuesday

Active rigs: 181

New permits --
  • Operators: Hess (5), Samson Oil and Gas (2), BR (2), MRO (1), Fidelity (1), EOG (1)
  • Fields: Rainbow (Williams), Elm Tree (McKenzie), Murphy Creek (Dunn), Alger (Mountrail), Hawkeye (McKenzie), Parshall (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
New wells reporting over the last 72 hours were reported earlier; see sidebar at the right.

One producing well was completed: 
  • 25732, 3,046, Whiting, Eide 41-13-2H, Timber Creek, t10/13; cum --
Two BR wells were canceled:
  • 26143: Crater Lake 11-14MBH, Hawkeye
  • 26144: Craterlands 11-14TFH, Hawkeye
Statoil re-surveyed the six Melissa wells in Williams County, sited in East Fork oil field.

Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:
  • 24766, drl, CLR, Vatne 3-25H, Hamlet, producing, 
  • 25300, 1,949, XTO, Franchuk 24X-20E, Murphy Creek, t9/13; cum 11K 9/13;

How That's Renewable Energy Mandate Working Out?

Xcel Energy requests rate increase to support investment in carbon-free energy: Co asked the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission to authorize increases in base electricity rates over a two-year period. The company proposes prices for a two-year period, during which investments in carbon-free energy sources, a diverse supply mix and service reliability improvements are at their peak. Average customer rates would increase by 4.6% effective Jan. 3, 2014, when interim rates would take effect.

So, Minnesotans can expect to pay about 5% more in utility costs cut back on carbon emissions. Meanwhile, in other news, China just announced the completion of another coal-fired power plant. The country has several hundred coal-fired power plants on the drawing board and in various stages of construction/completion.

Catching Up --

.... and when I get caught up, this will all be moved to my "3Q13 earnings."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

Marathon Oil beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.87 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.10 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.77; revenues fell 5.9% year/year to $3.91 bln vs the $3.92 bln consensus.

Halcon Resources misses by $0.02, beats on revs: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.04 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.06; revenues rose 317.2% year/year to $305 mln vs the $267.87 mln consensus.
  • Q3 net production for the period increased 237% year-over-year to an average of 37,707 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d). 
  • Third quarter 2013 production was comprised of 83% oil, 6% natural gas liquids (NGLs) and 11% natural gas. 
  • Co realized 95% of the average NYMEX oil price, 96% of the average NYMEX natural gas price and 34% of the average NYMEX oil price for NGLs during the third quarter of 2013, excluding the impact of derivatives. 
  • Co guiding to > 40% Pro Forma Production Growth in 2014 
  • Co Expects > 20% Reduction in Drilling & Completion Capex in 2014
McDermott misses by $0.23, misses on revs: Reports Q3 (Sep) loss of $0.27 per share, $0.23 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of ($0.04); revenues fell 33.2% year/year to $686.86 mln vs the $737.85 mln consensus. The year-over-year decrease in revenue was primarily due to the completion of several significant projects that were active in the 2012 third quarter. The Company's operating loss in the 2013 third quarter was $52.7 million compared to operating income of $82.5 million in the 2012 third quarter.

Weatherford beats by $0.02, misses on revs: Reports Q3 (Sep) adj. earnings of $0.23 per share, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.21; revenues were unchanged from the year-ago period at $3.82 bln.

Black Hills Corp beats by $0.04, misses on revs; raises lower end of its FY13 EPS guidance, in-line; guides FY14 EPS in-line: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.47 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.43; revenues rose 5.3% year/year to $259.9 mln vs the $323.52 mln consensus.

Plains All Amer beats by $0.03, beats on revs: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.53 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.50; revenues rose 14.4% year/year to $10.7 bln vs the $9.57 bln consensus.

Pioneer Natural Resources misses by $0.08, misses on revs: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.26 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.34; revenues rose 34.4% year/year to $826.8 mln vs the $985.48 mln consensus.

Marathon Oil beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.87 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.10 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.77; revenues fell 5.9% year/year to $3.91 bln vs the $3.92 bln consensus.