The
prevalence of that model and the days of “drill, baby, drill” died with
the COVID pandemic. As we’ve regularly documented, years of E&P
underperformance were punctuated when prices tanked. In the years that
followed, U.S. producers changed how they approached capital allocation.
Rather than chasing production growth at almost any cost, E&Ps
began to increasingly emphasize returns, cash flow, operational
efficiency and shareholder value. Consolidation accelerated throughout
the upstream, and operators became far more selective about where — and
how quickly — they develop acreage. The result is a markedly different
infrastructure landscape. Production continues to grow in many areas,
but generally not at the explosive pace that routinely overwhelmed
infrastructure during the first decade of the Shale Revolution. And with
that more calculated growth profile, the days of massive and persistent
price discounts are fading, reducing the motivation for producers to
risk signing up for the big chunks of capacity necessary to underwrite
large pipeline projects. It’s also worth noting that another headwind to
large projects is the continued challenges around permitting,
particularly for interstate projects.
But while the
push of supply has moderated, demand continues to grow. Let’s consider
natural gas. While LNG is still by far the most important factor that
will impact the U.S. market over the foreseeable future, sucking a huge
amount of gas to the Gulf Coast, AI and the natural gas-fired generation
that will power new data centers has quickly become one of the most
dynamic influences. Large-scale AI facilities require enormous amounts
of reliable power, often beyond what existing electric systems were
designed to provide. Meeting that demand increasingly means new
gas‑fired generation that can be built very quickly, expanded electric
transmission infrastructure, and additional gas pipeline capacity
But
developing new generation in response to new data center projects can
be tricky. Utilities may not have the same capacity to sign long-term
firm transportation contracts as large industrial users, and they don’t
want to risk developing new power plants and transmission infrastructure
in response to data centers that may either not exist or use less power
in several decades.
As a result, a growing number
of midstream projects are smaller, incremental solutions built toward
specific downstream markets. And that shift to demand-pull rather than
supply-push changes a lot about how and which projects get sanctioned.
Anticipating which projects will make sense requires an understanding of
the fundamental forces impacting supply and demand, as well as the
basics of gas processing and pipelines. Those connections are exactly
what School of Energy: Foundation is designed to teach.
Natural
gas isn’t the only commodity experiencing this transition. NGLs
continue to represent one of the industry’s strongest growth stories,
but for reasons that differ substantially from earlier years. Production
continues to increase alongside crude oil and natural gas development,
while domestic demand has remained comparatively stable. As a result,
export markets have become critically important for balancing the U.S.
NGL market. That means future investment opportunities increasingly
center around fractionation, storage, marine terminals and export
logistics. At School of Energy: Foundation, we’ll walk attendees through
those relationships — from frac spreads and y-grade economics to
petrochemical feedstocks and export pricing — showing how each component
influences the others.
Crude oil tells a similar
story. Production growth has moderated considerably compared with the
industry’s rapid expansion during the 2010s, yet U.S. crude continues
finding new customers around the world. Rather than existing largely as a
closed domestic system, U.S. producers increasingly compete within a
global marketplace where international supply disruptions, refinery
demand, shipping logistics and geopolitics all influence pricing and
infrastructure requirements. That means understanding future crude
infrastructure requires looking well beyond drilling activity alone to
include pipeline utilization, export terminals, refinery economics and
international demand — all critical pieces of the investment puzzle.
The
common thread connecting each of these examples is that understanding
any one market increasingly requires knowledge of several others. It’s
one of the defining characteristics of today’s energy landscape: Each
decision creates secondary and tertiary effects throughout the value
chain. Connecting those dots is considerably more valuable than simply
tracking today’s production numbers or commodity prices.
That’s
also why School of Energy: Foundations is structured differently than
many industry conferences. Rather than focusing exclusively on current
events or headline forecasts, the course emphasizes market fundamentals
and practical analytical tools that participants can continue using long
after the conference ends. Throughout the two-day program, attendees
will work through hands-on Excel models, examine real-world case studies
and hear directly from RBN/Novi Labs analysts and industry experts
covering crude oil, natural gas, LNG, NGLs, refined products and
renewable fuels.
Our objective isn’t simply to
explain today’s market. It’s to help attendees build a framework for
understanding tomorrow’s. Because today’s opportunities won’t
necessarily emerge where they did yesterday. The next generation of
successful energy projects will increasingly be determined by where
demand develops, how markets connect and which companies are best
positioned to respond. Recognizing those shifts before they become
obvious can make all the difference. That’s the journey we’ll take
together.
The conference will be held September 9-10
at the Thompson Hotel in Houston. Over the two-day, in-person course, we
won’t just tell you what’s happening, we’ll explain why markets behave
the way they do and equip you with the tools to track key trends
yourself. If you’re not familiar with the School of Energy, the
conference is structured more like a classroom experience, assessing
current developments through the lens of hands-on, practical instruction
and training. This approach sets you up to monitor these markets,
identify opportunities and understand the potential impacts of taking
action.
