Maybe It's Just Me But It Certainly Feels Like We're Seeing Some Adulting In DC -- December 21, 2025

Locator: 49758MIDEAST. 

If there is adulting in DC, one can give the credit to President Trump. 

Link here. 

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A Third Tanker

Link here. 

Nvidia Free Cash Flow -- COTD -- December 21, 2025

Locator: 49757NVDA. 

Before getting to the chart, one might spend some time at this link. If the link is lost, that's fine. It's simply extolling the advantages Nvidia holds over the rest: "one ring to rule the rest."

Chart of the day -- Nvidia -- again. 

Link here. 

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GOOG: One-Half Billion Dollars Every Day
Is Anyone Paying Attention?

Link here. 

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CSCO

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Goldman And Chips

Link here. 

Global Warming, Ocean Reefs, New Species -- December 21, 2025

Locator: 49756GLOBALWARMING. 

You can't have it both ways. 

For as long as I've been blogging I've been reading two stories:

• reefs are dying due to global warming; and,
• human activity is leading to the sixth mass extinction.

Now this, link here.

From the linked article:

Scientists believe they have discovered at least 20 new species in a deep part of the Pacific Ocean.

The discoveries were found after researchers from the California Academy of Sciences retrieved 13 reef monitoring devices that had been placed in deep coral reefs in Guam, which had been collecting data since 2018. The devices, known as autonomous reef monitoring structures or ARMS, were placed up to 330 feet below the surface, an area of the ocean that receives little light.

Over two weeks in November, scientists retrieved 2,000 specimens, finding 100 species in the region for the first time. Luiz Rocha, California Academy of Sciences Ichthyology curator, told NPR after more analysis is completed, scientists expect to discover more than 20 new species. Rocha was also part of the diving exhibition that placed and retrieved the devices.

It gets tedious. 

Intel's Future Hangs In The Balance -- At The Fulcrum? The Intel Fab In Arizona -- Great Chip But No Customer -- December 21, 2025

Locator: 49755INTEL. 

Fabs were most recently updated here. 

Intel's future in the balance -- depends on Arizona fab. Link here.

This is where it's important to understand "chips." From my perspective, Apple was the first to see this. Non-quantum chips are reading their physical limits; now, it's how they package CPUs, GPUs, and NPUs.  

Everything Suggests This Minnesota Fraud Story Is Going To Be A Much Bigger Story Than Anyone Could Have Imagined -- But Is It Really? December 21, 2025

Locator: 49754MINNESOTA. 

Literally, on a global basis, Minnesota literally opened its coffers to anyone who wanted / needed cash.

ATM on steroids.

It will be interesting if "they" start looking for a fraud that was even bigger.

This is truly amazing.

Minnesota has a two-year budget.

Most recently, a slight surplus. Going into the next two-year cycle, Minnesota was already projecting a slight deficit due to increased health care costs, other items, and that was before the fraud, which is conservatively estimate at $2 billion; now estimates upwards of $9 billion, suggesting it could hit $10 billion because folks don't want to be accused of hyperbole. 

Minnesota's two-year budget runs about $60 billion ($30 billion / year), so $10 billion / $30 billion is absolutely unimaginable. Or is it? Depends how long the fraud has been going on.

Governor Walz seems absolutely out of his element. A high school assistant football coach? Is that correct?  

Later: I just spent quite a bit of time with ChatGPT to try to put this scandal in perspective. It's interesting. Two takeaways:

• yes, it's huge; can't be sugar-coated; it's huge;
• at the end of the day -- it will simply become a political story. Apparently Medicare fraud is so bad -- the argument simply becomes "everyone does it (every state has challenges with Medicare fraud)" -- "we identified the problem" and stopped it" -- "it's the cost of doing business; overall Medicare is well run and every so often there will be a scandal -- in it's own way -- no worse than the $600 hammers or $600 toilets contracted the Department of Defense. 

And, so we move on. 

Oh, one last thought. If it simply gets down to "it's the cost of doing business," Minnesota is in good shape. Let's say at worse it comes out to a "$10-billion scandal." That's how much Warren Buffett / Berkshire Hathaway paid for OxyChem and in the big picture, it didn't even affect the BRK cash hoard -- currently about $385 billion. 

It's a political story.

Other frauds:

• Enron (2001) -- corporate accounting fraud -- $70 billion in assets / market impact
• WorldCom (late 1990s - early 2000s) -- accounting fraud -- $11 billion
• Madoff Ponzi schemed (2008) -- investor fraud -- $60 billion

The largest government-related welfare / benefits fraud cases in US history:

• 2025 National Health are Fraud Takedown -- $14.6 billion alleged
• Operation Gold Rush (2025) -- $10 billion alleged in one scheme
• DOJ Health Care Fraud Takedown (2018) -- $2 billion in billed fraud
• Philip Esformes Medicare Fraud Case -- $1 billion
• HCA (Columbia / HCA) settlements -- $1.7 billion recovered

And, so we move on. These comparisons have been of great help. It explains why a lot of folks I've talked with down here in Texas are unaware of the Minnesota Medicare scandal or don't care. 

This will be the narrative: