Apple Has Ordered Almost Half Of TSMC's Initial 2-NM Production Capacity For The iPhone 18 -- August 29, 2025

Locator: 48990APPLE.

The iPhone 17 is yet to be announced. The iPhone 18 will be introduced next year.

Link here.

All About Refineries Today -- August 29, 2025

Locator: 48989B. 

WTI: $64.13.

New wells:

• Monday, September 1, 2025: 2 for the month, 95 for the quarter, 535 for the year,
• 40705, conf, Oasis, Lake Trenton Federal 5302 21-31 4B,
• 37544, conf, Hess, AN-Lone Tree-152-95-1207H-8,
• Sunday, August 31, 2025: 55 for the month, 93 for the quarter, 533 for the year,
• None.
• Saturday, August 30, 2025: 55 for the month, 93 for the quarter, 533 for the year,
• None.
• Friday, August 29, 2025: 55 for the month, 93 for the quarter, 533 for the year,
• None.

California refiners: link here. 

Phillips 66 on track to shut down its California refinery as scheduled, or perhaps slightly ahead of schedule. No talk yet of who might buy it. ChatGPT says there are no reports of anyone looking to buy this refinery, and the state of California seems to be caught flat-footed on this development though it was announced years ago; California was very, very aware of this closure; but, failed to come up with a Plan B, except to import refined products.

RBN Energy: US refiners could benefit from struggles refineries are facing abroad.

Refineries in Europe, Latin America, Russia and China are facing a host of issues that could ultimately benefit U.S. refiners. Europe has high operating costs and political pressures. Attacks have damaged Russia’s refineries, and the country continues to get blasted with steeper sanctions. China’s aging plants are closing and there are no new large-scale projects on the horizon. Latin America lags in capacity growth. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how these global issues are boosting opportunities for U.S. refiners. 

First, we’ll offer a refresher of the U.S. refining industry before we address the global arena. As we discussed in Us and Them, the industry has undergone a number of changes in recent years, and more turbulence looks likely as global economic and trade patterns shift and the energy transition moves forward. For some U.S. refineries, this has led to closures due to weak profits, rising regulatory costs and declining demand for products, particularly gasoline. But other refineries have prospered and even invested in expansions. The U.S. refining industry has evolved into the most competitive in the world, and the issues and challenges faced by other countries will likely benefit U.S. refiners.

While 2025 will end up with about 1.2 MMb/d of gross capacity additions worldwide, significant shutdowns will also take place in the U.S., Europe and China, resulting in a net decrease in capacity of about 240 Mb/d (see dashed black oval in Figure 1 below). As detailed in the most recent Future of Fuels report from our Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice, we’ll look at the challenges facing Russia, Europe, China and Latin America, and spell out how the political pressures and potential closures could set up U.S. refiners for growth.

Figure 1. Global Refinery Net Capacity Changes. Source: RFA

We’ll break down each region, starting with Russia.

Russian refineries have faced relentless Ukrainian drone attacks that have knocked out at least 17% (roughly 1.1 MMb/d) of Russia’s total refining capacity, sparking fuel shortages and panic buying in its southern regions. Since June, Ukraine has struck 10 major refineries, including sites in Volgograd, Saratov, Syzran, Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk, with some of these facilities being forced offline for weeks. Russia responded by banning gasoline exports in July and shifting crude oil flows toward China and India, despite U.S. pressure to dial back those sales. 

American Manufacturing Program -- Apple -- August 28, 2025

Locator: 48988APPLE.

In all the clutter of news the past two weeks, it's easy to forget this, the American Manufacturing Program, or better framed, Apple's American Manufacturing Program:

• link here; and,
• link here to AP.

From August 6, 2025, Trump announces Apple investing another $100 billion in US manufacturing.

Apple CEO Tim Cook joined President Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday to announce a commitment by the tech company to increase its investment in U.S. manufacturing by an additional $100 billion over the next four years.

“This is a significant step toward the ultimate goal of ensuring that iPhones sold in the United States of America also are made in America,” Trump said at the press conference. “Today’s announcement is one of the largest commitments in what has become among the greatest investment booms in our nation’s history.”

As part of the Apple announcement, the investments will be about bringing more of its supply chain and advanced manufacturing to the United States as part of an initiative called the American Manufacturing Program, but it is not a full commitment to build its popular iPhone device domestically.

This is a big deal.

Look with whom Apple has partnered. This is truly unprecedented. Think of the "force-multiplication" that is going on. 

Apple with a dozen primary partners -- entry fee: $250 billion market cap. 

Each of the dozen primary partners, another dozen secondary partners for each of the primary -- entry fee: $500 million market cap. 

12 x 12 = 144.

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Apple's American Manufacturing Program

Apple's American Manufacturing Program (AMP) includes initial partners such as Corning for cover glass, Coherent for VCSEL lasers, MP Materials for rare earth magnets, and semiconductor companies Texas Instruments, Samsung, GlobalFoundries, Amkor, and GlobalWafers America, with plans to manufacture an end-to-end silicon supply chain in the U.S. by bringing new technology to the U.S. first.

Here are some of the specific partners and their roles in Apple's American Manufacturing Program:

For Physical Components

Corning:

A partner in manufacturing cover glass for all iPhone and Apple Watch devices in Kentucky, and will also establish a new Apple-Corning Innovation Center in the state.

Coherent:

• A long-standing partner that produces VCSEL lasers for features like Face ID and other components, with operations in Sherman, Texas.

MP Materials (this draws Apple to the table shared with DOD and Palantir):

• Apple has committed to buying American-made rare earth magnets from MP Materials, and the two companies will expand the Independence facility in Fort Worth, Texas, and establish a rare earth recycling line in Mountain Pass, California.

For Silicon Manufacturing

Texas Instruments:

• Expanding its partnership to support additional tool installations at its Utah facility and a new facility in Sherman, Texas.

Samsung:

• Collaborating to launch an innovative new chip-making technology in Austin, Texas, to optimize chip performance for Apple products.

GlobalFoundries:

• Partnering to bring new semiconductor manufacturing capabilities and technology to its facility in Malta, New York.

Amkor:

• Apple is the first and largest customer for Amkor's new advanced chip packaging and test facility in Arizona.

GlobalWafers America:

• Plans to manufacture advanced bare wafers in the U.S. for the first time, using silicon from Corning. See link here. See also the Apple-Corning (GLW) relationship.
  

These partnerships aim to bring a complete silicon supply chain to America, from design to packaging.

It goes without saying, a primary partner is also: TSMC. 

Also:

• Broadcom.

These are the initial partners.

Additional partners that will be needed (not solely manufacturing):

• 5G
• satellite
• AI

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A Musical Interlude

Link here.

Petro-Hunt With Four New Permits -- August 28, 2025

Locator: 48987B. 

WTI: $64.07.

Active rigs: 30.

Four new permits, #42259 - #42262, inclusive:

• Operator: Petro-Hunt
• Field: Little Knife (Dunn County): Crooked Creek (Dunn County);
• Comments:
• Petro-Hunt has permits for four wells, Charles Tompkins (2), Charles Rand, and John Williams9, all SWSW 32-144-97, 
• to be sited 365 FSL and 325 / 465 FWL.

One producing well reported as completed:

• 35233, 2,498, CLR, Michael State Federal 5-16H, Williams County.

This Needs A Stand-Alone If You're Wondering About Amazon -- August 28, 2025

Locator: 48986AMAZON. 

As a side note, this is why I continue to add, as an investor, to my position in Amazon. 

I just happened to see this interview near the end of the day over at CNBC. 

Amazon and Comcast NBCUniversal recently announced that Peacock Premium Plus can now be added as an add-on subscription through Amazon Prime Video Channels. For $16.99 per month or $169.99 per year, Prime Video customers can access Peacock's ad-free content, including live sports like Sunday Night Football and Olympic coverage, directly within the Prime Video app.

Link here. Same link.

This is really, really amazing.

According to Google AI:

• Amazon Prime alone, with no others partnerns, $14.99 / month or $139 / year;
• Amazon Prime with Peacock Premium Plus, $16.99 / month or $169 / year.

So, if that's correct, if that's accurate, I can pay an addition $2.00 / month and get the entire Peacock Premium Plus Network. 

I find that incredible.

So, what does Peacock Prime Plus Network add to my current Amazon Prime experience, in terms of content?

Peacock Premium Plus on Prime Video provides an ad-free streaming experience with live sports like "Sunday Night Football" and the Olympics, thousands of on-demand movies and series from NBCUniversal networks (like Bravo), Peacock Originals, and the ability to download content offline.

Users can access this content seamlessly within the Prime Video app through a separate subscription, adding to their existing content library without needing a second app. 

As a comparison, look what it would cost to add Paramount: 

Paramount+ costs either $7.99 per month for the ad-supported Essential plan or $12.99 per month for the premium Paramount+ with Showtime plan. You can also pay annually for savings, which works out to about $5.00 per month for the Essential plan or about $10.00 per month for the premium plan.

What sports does Paramount offer that the others don't:

Paramount+ provides exclusive coverage of several top-tier sports that differentiate it from other streaming services, particularly in soccer and MMA

. Its specific focus on these leagues makes it a must-have for fans who want to follow them extensively.

MMA and soccer interest me not. 

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Where I Stand

With the Amazon Prime Fire Stick, I subscribe to two "things":

• Hulu (my most important go-to streaming "network") -- which includes ESPN, and maybe some Disney (I honestly don't know what Disney I get with Hulu but with Hulu / ESPN I honestly get all the sports I need); and,
• Amazon Prime.

Through Hulu I get all the legacy networks (ABC, NBC, and CBS, for example, and all the local networks) and with Amazon Prime I get "all" the NFL I want, including "Monday Night Football." I can still get "Sunday Night Football" on Hulu / legacy NBC, and so for "Sunday Night Football" I don't need Peacock.

Amazon Prime gets me "Thursday Night Football." 

I think it's just a matter of time before "Sunday Night Football" is available only on Peacock.

And I think it's only a matter of time before the legacy networks lose any access to the NBA, NFL, NASCAR, and the PGA. 

It could also happen with regard to the Olympics but that may catch the eye(s) of the FCC.

But for an extra $2.00 / month, the Amazon Prime / Peacock merger looks very tempting.

***************************
Amazon Prime

I can't say it enough times. Amazom Prime more than pays for itself. With the "cash-back" Amazon Prime credit card, I get Amazon Prime (streaming and the retail store) completely "free."

Amazon Prime streaming and YouTube streaming are in direct competition, and my hunch is that both are equally good. But with Amazon Prime retail, it's a no-brainer. 

The next big thing:

• a direct competitor to YouTube video channel (not YouTube streaming) but the YouTube video app;
• Josh Brown on CNBC thinks Netflix will develop a YouTube-like video channel;
• it would be a hoot if Amazon Prime also developed a YouTube-like video channel.

Background:

Mike Hopkins is currently the head of Amazon MGM Studios and Prime Video, following Jennifer Salke's departure for a production deal in March 2025. In this role, Hopkins oversees all aspects of Amazon's video entertainment businesses, with Courtenay Valenti (film) and Vernon Sanders (TV) reporting directly to him.

Amazon first announced its intent to purchase Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) on May 26, 2021, for $8.45 billion, a deal that was finalized and closed on March 17, 2022. The acquisition added MGM's extensive library of films and TV shows, including the James Bond and Rocky franchises, to Amazon's Prime Video service, making it a significant expansion of Amazon's entertainment division and a major event in the streaming wars.