Economic Numbers -- December 12, 2024

Locator: 48389INFLATION.

My favorite chart:

• ICI MMFs: link here.
• OFR MMFs (my favorite chart): link here.

PPI: double the estimate -- 0.4% vs 0.2% estimate; stripping out food and energy, exactly in line at 0.2%.  Otherwise, everything "hotter" than expected. Not good. Market turns negative. By noon, traders will forget these numbers, but this will give Steve Liesman something to talk about.

Meanwhile, this reminder:

The CNBC panel on the PPI, starting with Steve Liesman:

• these numbers are "hot";
• but Fed still on track to cut in December (this month) and in March of next year
• core numbers better than headline numbers
• big jump in food prices
• "finished consumer foods" jumped 31% -- Liesman wondered out loud if that was a misprint / typographical error -- everything else was in the 3% range
• "finished consumer foots"? Fruits and vegetables?
• everything suggests the Fed is talking 2% but "secretly" acknowledges the reset will be 3%;
• still better than the alternative(s)
• still a Goldilocks economy
• proposed tariffs will add 0.3% to the inflation rate (e.g., from 2.7% to 3.0%). 
  

Used cars: why did prices of used cars spike yesterday? Due to hurricane and all the cars that were flooded out.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  
• Longer version here. 

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- December 12, 2024

Locator: 48388CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

BofA: US consumer resilience holds -- continues to increase spending. Pivoting to "services" rather than "goods." Reflection of aging population, or an aging population that has increasing net worth.

Jobless rate: drops to 8-month low; Fed still feels need to cut rates; wow!

The Swifty Economy: AMEX spending was up 50% in Toronto in the month of November when Taylor Swift performed there

• 50% increase in AMEX spending in one month due to a 3-day event
  
• Taylor Swift is her "own" economy

NYC assassin: no one, it seems, has made the connection between American anger with the US health care system and Obama Care.

The push to end employer-provided insurance:

• one can see where this is headed -- 100% Medicare Advantage
• who's got the lead on this? Humana?

Cruise: is the demise of the Cruise initiative the canary in the coal mine, the coal mine being the EV fad / push. 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  
• Longer version here. 

The New York Times -- The Pardon -- December 12, 2024

Locator: 48387PARDONS.

Biden: making it easier and easier for Trump to announce huge number of pardons on day 1. 

A disgraceful pardon: link here.

If Democrats want to understand one of the reasons the Republican Party is ascendant, they can look to President Biden’s pardon on Sunday for his son Hunter. In its rank mendacity, political hypocrisy, naked self-dealing and wretched example, it typifies so much of what so many Americans have come to detest about what the MAGA world calls “the swamp.”

Start with the mendacity. Last December, Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, insisted, “I’ve been very clear: The president is not going to pardon his son.” The president reiterated the point in early June, when he told ABC’s David Muir that he would not pardon Hunter if his son was convicted, as he later was, of three felony charges related to his purchase of a gun while he was addicted to drugs. The younger Biden also faced separate criminal tax charges.

It was always a good bet that the president would break his word as soon as it was politically safe to do so. But he doubled down on dishonesty in his statement about the pardon, claiming Hunter’s prosecution was a result of “political pressure” on the judicial process. Nonsense. The charges stem from Hunter’s reckless lifestyle, abetted and financed by his willingness to trade shamelessly on the family name. A previous plea agreement between Hunter and federal prosecutors fell apart last year under scrutiny from a federal judge.

More obnoxious is the hypocrisy. Every year, federal prosecutors file hundreds of cases against persons charged with lying on the Firearms Transaction Record, or Form 4473, which is required from anyone buying a firearm from a licensed gun dealer. In 1993, then-Senator Biden made that form a key part of the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act. How is it that the same president who made both gun control and stricter tax enforcement key parts of his political message suddenly sees his own son’s transgressions as nuisance offenses?

Today: Biden to announce the largest pool of commutations / pardons ever in the history of the US

• 39 pardons
  
• 1,500 "non-violent" crimes: communtations
  
• how many of these folks had their charges reduced as a plea bargain to get them imprisoned in the first place;
• how many had history of violent crimes?
• Biden administration says this is simply the start of a process that is continuing and gaining momentum 
  
• wow, he feels guilty that Hunter was the son of a president; what about thousands of others held imprisoned for the same crime -- tax evasion; lying on a form to obtain a gun
  
• one assumes it's the "guilt" he felt for pardoning his own son
• the good news: will make room for all the illegal, criminal elements that Trump / Homan will be rounding up
  
• let's hope that Biden continues to make more room; 1500 is a good start
• rumor: Trump to buy rights to "Monopoly Game" so he can put Biden's picture on "get out of jail free."
  

WTI Melting Up -- At $70.43 Early Morning -- December 2, 2024

Locator: 48386B.

Lead story on CNBC: at 6:00 a.m. -- intergenerational wealth transfer. Also, here.

• $124 trillion over the next 25 years;
• will gradually rise every year;
• by 2040, $5 trillion / year;
• Joe Kernen asked if the Boomers inherited any money from the Greatest Generation;
• the answer was "no."
• In fact, the Greatest Generation was the first generation in the US -- ever --  to leave money to their heirs.
• almost none of it will be taxed. 

Musk's intergenerational wealth transfer: unfortunately for his kids, they will each get a smaller share as he keeps having more children. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.43.

Friday, December 13, 2024: 22 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 654 for the year

• 39857, conf, Hess, EN-Charles Wood-157-94-1720H-4,
• 23277, conf, Grayson Mill, Darlene Federal 152-97-13-24-3H,
• 23275, conf, Grayson Mill, Darlene Federal 152-97-13-24-2H,

Thursday, December 12, 2024: 19 for the month; 123 for the quarter, 652 for the year

• None.

RBN Energy: could China's slowing diesel demand boost use of US LNG as a transportation fuel?

China’s appetite for crude oil has been lower than expected this year, largely due to a slowing economy and the increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). And the U.S.’s #1 economic and geopolitical rival is in the midst of another transition that could further weaken crude oil demand: Heavy-duty trucking in China is increasingly being powered by LNG instead of diesel. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the trend toward LNG-fueled trucking in China and what it could mean for LNG exporters in the U.S.

Trump To Ring NYSE Bell -- ISO-NE Spikes -- Thursday -- December 12, 2024

Locator: 48385ISONE.

Not even president yet: 

• thanks Time magazine; says very nice things about Time magazine
• five people on state behind him: bookends --
• RFK, Jr, to his right, and Melania to his left
• Treasury secretary-designee behind Trump and got a shout-out from Trump
• Melania looks really, really comfortable, appropriately happy
• JD Vance next to Melania; to her left; Trump's daughter next to JD Vance
  
• Trump says nice things about ABC president who was in the audience
• in thirty seconds lists what President Biden has left him and the country
• off the cuff; extemporaneously, an impressive speaker
• mentions Macron / Notre Dame
• cutting taxes substantially; regulatory relief to those with $1-billion projects; 
• corporate tax cuts -- win-win for all
  
• to 15% if made in US
• otherwise, 21% if made outside of US, which is also a great tax rate; lower than current rate

ISO-NE: link here. Spiking to $500.

The cost of going green, link here: