Sunday, October 27, 2024

Anticipation -- October 27, 2024

Locator: 48666ISRAEL.

Israel: having spent a lot of time over the weekend reading the various reports and the social media response, one really gets the feeling that armchair analysts -- professional and amateur -- have no idea how big a story that the Israeli response was.  

One hundred aircraft, most of them older model fighters (F-16s and F-15s) and only a few stealthy fighters, slow-moving tankers, and I assume AWACS, and telegraphing Iranians and Washington, DC, the attack was about to come, and not one a/c was lost. Surgical strikes and not hitting oil and nuclear sites per Biden's demand. And from what I can tell, Iran's entire air defense system was taken out. 

Unit 669: link here.

WTI: plunging today. Speaks volumes about the Israeli surgical strikes.

The market: maybe armchair analysts -- professional and amateur -- don't get it, but investors (and traders) certainly do. Look at futures.

McDonald's: I like the decisiveness of the CEO. Doesn't wait to make a decision once the "all-clear" is given. Good for them. Link here. Screenshot below from CNBC.

NVDA, link here:

Presidential election: everything suggests that a lot of folks on either side of the aisle are going to be very, very, very disappointed. The other story is how "scared" a lot of CEOs appear to be with the thought of a Harris presidency.

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Initial Production For New Wells Reporting This Next Week -- October 27, 2024

Locator: 48665B.

The wells:

  • 40310, conf, Hess, EN-Rice A-155-94-0310H-8, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241090410229
7-20241149410676
6-20241667014705
5-20243415742825
  • 40639, conf, CLR, Vandeberg 6-35H, East Fork, npd,
  • 40309, conf, Hess, EN-Rice A-155-94-0310H-7, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241662025107
7-20241677423537
6-20241348914564
5-2024267142464
  • 40640, conf, CLR, Christopherson 7-14H, East Fork, npd, 
  • 40641, conf, CLR, Vandeberg 7-35HSL, East Fork, npd,
  • 39639, conf, Hess, TI-State-LN-158-95-3635H-1, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2024488819468
7-2024665819859
6-2024769015919
5-2024943415597
  • 40293, conf,  Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 5H, South Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20243875957256
7-20244495590947
6-202449038107738
  • 40291, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 XW 1H, South Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20243347849286
7-20243920064645
6-20246335478076
  • 40246, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Pike 32-6 1H, Starbuck,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-202430510
7-202430700
6-202444910
5-202450
  • 40217, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-7H,
  • 40209, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 6H, South Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20242472441893
7-20243298454086
6-20241526719398
  • 40592, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 5B, Truax, npd,
  • 26450, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-4H, South Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241780222968
7-20242282532215
6-20242239525615
5-20241430
  • 26449, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-3H, South Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2024839913017
7-20241566817942
6-20241624323540
5-20241907327623
  • 40598, conf,  CLR, Doe 7-23H, Murphy Creek, npd,
  • 40216, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-6H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2024839913017
7-20241566817942
6-20241624323540
5-20241907327623
  • 40215, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-5H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241335318320
7-20242221330376
6-20242027129069
5-20242274032400
4-202412801898
  • 40597, conf, CLR, Doe 6-23H, Murphy Creek, npd,
  • 40591, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 4B, Truax, no production data,
  • 40214, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-4H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241436917936
7-20241528018877
6-20241858024522
5-20242786936961
4-20241811

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Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 27, 2024

Locator: 48664B.

Wednesday, November 6, 2024: 9 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 583 for the year
40310, conf, Hess, EN-Rice A-155-9400310H-8,

Tuesday, November 5, 2024: 8 for the month; 68 for the quarter, 582 for the year
40639, conf, CLR, Vandeberg 6-35H,
40309, conf, Hess, EN-Rice A-155-9400310H-7,

Monday, November 4, 2024: 6 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 580 for the year
None.

Sunday, November 3, 2024: 6 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 580 for the year
40640, conf, CLR, Christopherson 7-14H,

Saturday, November 2, 2024: 5 for the month; 65 for the quarter, 579 for the year
40641, conf, CLR, Vandeberg 7-35HSL,
39639, conf, Hess, TI-State-LN-158-95-3635H-1,

Friday, November 1, 2024: 3 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 577 for the year
40293, conf,  Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 5H,
40291, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 XW 1H,
40246, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Pike 32-6 1H,

Thursday, October 31, 2024: 60 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 574 for the year
None.

Wednesday, October 30, 2024: 60 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 574 for the year
40217, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-7H,
40209, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 6H,

Tuesday, October 29, 2024: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 572 for the year
40592, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 5B,
26450, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-4H,
26449, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 150-99-26-35-3H,

Monday, October 28, 2024: 55 for the month; 55 for the quarter, 569 for the year
40598, conf,  CLR, Doe 7-23H,
40216, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-6H

Sunday, October 27, 2024: 53 for the month; 53 for the quarter, 567 for the year
40215, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-5H,

Saturday, October 26, 2024: 52 for the month; 52 for the quarter, 566 for the year
40597, conf, CLR, Doe 6-23H,
40591, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 4B,
40214, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-4H,
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Saturday, October 26, 2024

Wow, Never Quit Reading -- October 26, 2024

Locator: 48663INDIA.

What went so wrong with Boeing? The WSJ.  DEI and schadenfreude.

I'm loving google's AI. I assume "everybody" has noted the change. It's really, really quite good. 

The other day I asked the question whether SpaceX might be interested in Boeing Space? Mostly as a lark, but curious.

So, I googled what's bigger SpaceX or Boeing space --




*************************
The Book Page

I'm currently in my "India" phase -- the subcontinent. The history, the politics, to compare and contrast Indo-American relationships with Sino-American relationships. There's so much personal "background" that led me to this Indian phase. 

I look forward to meeting with my Indian friends and compare notes. 

My two sources:

  • India: A History, John Keay, c. 2000, 2010. 
  • Vishnu's Crowded Temple: India Since The Great Rebellion, Maria Misra, c. 2007

Absolutely fascinating how many dots connect.  

The first is the better of the two if one wants the entire history of India. The second is really a "poli-sci" book focused on the British colonization and subsequent revolution and independence of India.

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Israel -- For The Archives -- For The Grandkids -- And Especially For Olivia -- October 26, 2024

Locator: 48662ISRAEL.

Great summary, NY Times.  

Great summary, The WSJ.

Link here. Brings back a lot of wonderful memories. 

I had almost exactly 100 sorties in the F-15, all in Germany. I didn't track all my F-15 flights -- don't ask -- but the ones that were officially tracked by the USAF numbered about 100. It's hard to believe how incredibly versatile the F-15 remains.
The F-15 entered service (USAF) in 1976. Forty-eight years ago. Can that be correct? Someone check the arithmetic. In some respects, my hunch, warfighters prefer the F-15 to the F-22 and, without question, the F-16.
It would be interesting to know who / meet the flight surgeons assigned to these fighter squadrons. They have no idea how lucky they are ... or maybe they do. More from the linked article:


While assigned RAF Lakenheath, I was assigned to the F-111 and sat in the right seat -- the weapon systems operator / navigator. Many stories to tell. And note, the A-10 is still around, still firing depleted uranium rounds (link here). No two-seater A-10s manufactured so I never flew in the A-10 but almost every other a/c in the USAF inventory of note at during the 70s, 80s and 90s. 
You only get one chance at life; you only go through life once. I'm glad 30 years of my life was with the USAF. I honestly can't think of anything else I would have rather done in those years.
For more on all of this, see "Next Generation Weapons Technology." Posted October 13, 2024:
US F-15s arrive in Middle East as Israel preps Iran retaliation.
A new squadron of US F-15s arrived at an undisclosed base in the region this week as Washington works to stop Israel from escalating the fighting in a counterattack on Iran.
Another squadron of US Air Force F-15s arrived in the Middle East this week, the US military said, as Washington aims to persuade Israel not to launch a major counterattack in response to Iran's October 1, 2024, ballistic missile barrage against Israel.
The F-15s arrived at an undisclosed base in the region on Wednesday, US Central Command said. They join additional US F-16s that arrived earlier this month, bolstering US fighter squadrons already in the region including highly advanced stealth F-22 Raptors.
The United States also has several mid-air refueling tankers based in the region as well as an aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, in the Gulf of Oman within striking distance of Iran and Yemen. Several US Navy destroyers are also in the Red Sea and in the Mediterranean, where an amphibious-borne Marine Expeditionary Unit remains ready in case the United States orders the evacuation of its citizens from Lebanon.
If you have time for only one "thing" today -- go to "x" (aka twitter) and search Israel.

 


 


For Iran, that was an expensive (in terms of capability) excursion into Gaza.

NY Times provides nice coverage. But "x" has better pictures.

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