Retail Success -- Some Observations -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Anecdotal -- For The Archives -- October 26, 2024

Locator: 48661RETAIL.

One of the themes that will take on even more importance in 2025 and the out-years:

Exhibit A, anecdote:

Yesterday I was out of town, traveling, and my wife was home alone. Even her daughter and son-in-law who would have been invaluable helping her yesterday, were also out of town. My wife called about 6:00 p.m. CDT to say that her very old and incredibly trustworthy, incredibly reliable, exquisitely maintained 2007 Chrysler Town and Country had "died." She had spent the day with a friend and on the way home stopped at Belks to pick something. When she came out, the van would not start. Dead. Really dead.

Belk is across the street -- literally from where we live, with a wonderful coffee shop next door. May elected to stay with the car rather than walk home or go for coffee. 

After calling me, my wife called "Triple-A" who were there in about 45 minutes. Battery was so dead not even able to be jump-started. Triple-A towed the car to an Auto Zone 1.7 miles away. They replaced her battery and she was on her way.

While waiting for Triple-A she called "our" local Chrylser dealer / service center. They said they would not see her -- they no longer service cars from before 2014. Some exceptions for long-term loyal / regular customers. 

Triple-A outperformed Chrysler and all it cost was the cost of a new battery.

We've been members of Triple-A since we returned to the states in 1994. We have maintained our membership ever since; we last called Triple-A in 2005 or thereabouts. I could find the exact date if I wanted; it was on a trip taking our younger daughter back to college. I digress.

If Chrysler had agreed to check out the car, they would have put the car in their garage -- it was no about 6:45 p.m. and they would have gotten to it this morning, charging us for the diagnostic check ($150?) and then for a new battery and installation. 

Meanwhile, Triple-A and Auto Zone installed the battery -- I assume at no cost except as included in the price of the battery, but I don't know. May was sold a high-end battery that will outlast the car, LOL, but I have no complaints. 

As far as Chrysler goes .... not even willing to help a woman in distress .... not impressed.

 I was never going to part ways with Triple-A anyway, but now ...

Auto Zone -- I doubt I will ever need them again - knock on wood -- but they've gained another loyal customer if necessary and I will share my story with whomever will listen ...

Our local Chrysler dealer / service center not willing to work on cars before the 2014 model year suggest:

• they are overwhelmed with service requests
• exacerbated by labor shortage
• our Firestone service center is unable to do "engine light -- sensor" checks because their one individual certified to provide that service is convalescing from back pain and had been out since August, 2024; he returns to work in January, 2025
• parts generally not available for emission systems in models before 2014

No complaints. Just observations. 

So much more could be said, but time to read some more of John Keay's India: A History and squeeze in a Duolingo Spanish lesson. 

North Dakota Legacy Fund -- October, 2024, Data Posted

Locator: 48660LEGACYFUND.

In this week's "Top Stories," I opined:

We're still feeling the effects, economically, culturally, academically.

Exhibit A: the North Dakota Legacy Fund.

• August, 2014: $117 million
• July, 2020: $9 million
• October, 2024:$65 million

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The Book Page 

 India: A History, John Keay, c. 2000, 2010.

First notes of the day:

This is so incredibly cool. Fifth century BC India struggling to become a nation. The great epic -- one of two -- Ramayan's primary function was to legitimize monarchical rule. Meanwhile, Jain and Buddha were touting "The Middle Way" and/or alternative state systems -- variously described as oligarchical, republican, or even, democratic.

Exactly what we're seeing (again) this year in American national politics. 

• Trump: would like to be a monarch; will settle for an oligarchy
• Harris: supporters would like a purely democratic system (best example: get rid of the electoral system and simply decide on direct vote county.

Even more cool: this was happening in the 6th and 5th century; the same period when classical Greece was undergoing much the same. The "Golden Age of Greece" is now referred to, by historians, as "Fifth-Century Greece." 

Incidentally, I'm not sure if I see much difference between Buddhism and Jainism.

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The Word Page

"Senior Common Rooms" -- p. 133, John Keay, India: A History; must be a British / Indian term.

Voivodeship: area administered by a voivode (governor) in eastern and central Europe, particularly Poland. Have existed since medieval times, duchies. Now, generally referred to as provinces. I forget where I first saw that word. Colossus?

Apple Holds It Lead Over Nvidia After Losing It For Short Period Today -- October 25, 2024

Locator: 48659AAPL.

Link here. 

The bigger story: "everyone" feels that NVDA / Nvidia is on its way to a $4-trillion market cap within twelve months and $5 trillion by 2030.

AMD? "Dead money" since January, 2024 (this year). Since 1984? Up 900%. Five years:

• AMD: up 350%
• INTC: down 60%

SCCO: up 66% over the past year. Five years:

• UNP: 40%
• SCCO: 214%

QCOM, max duration of holding: up 30,300%

• QCOM vs MDU over the past year? Absolutely dead even.

MDU vs SRE:

• five years: 50% vs 17%
• one year: 55% vs 19%

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• Longer version here.

Trump: The US Is The Garbage Can Of The World -- He Said It; Not Me -- For The Archives -- October 25, 2024

Locator: 48658GARBAGECANOFTHEWORLD.

Really?

How did we miss it?

Week 43: October 21, 2024 -- October 27, 2024

Locator: 48657TOPSTORIES.

Completely unexpected: the refining stories coming out of California this past week. Reminder: this is not simply about refining oil to produce gasoline, this is about refining oil to produce California's unique CARBOB formulation. CNN: the shrinking number of oil refineries in the state .... California will likely have to source it from out-of-state (Gulf of Mexico refineries?) -- Politico. Oil and gasoline from out-of-state generally shipped in by sea. Some piped in from the north. Watch for an RBN Energy blog on this issue.

Mostly US: overriding themes going into 2025 (and beyond):

• the changing global geopolitical environment
  
• Netanyahu sees an opportunity to significantly change the dynamics in the Mideast
• amazingly, Iran says it won't retaliate if Israel limits its retaliation to strikes on military targets only; 
• WTI barely budged late this evening when Israel launched on Iran
• not even a banner headline on Drudge
  
• speaks volumes about the Iranian support for its current leader, and Netanyahu knows it
  
• "Putin, quo vadis?"
• seriously, quo vadis?
• perhaps the first "adult book" I ever read -- read it in 8th grade, along with Carl Sandburg's Lincoln (one of the volumes); and, Giants in the Earth, Ole Rølvaag 
• read the latter again a few years ago; had an even greater impact on me
• as did one of my teachers at that time, a huge impact: Ron Thue.
  
• the next president of the United States
• is this a 1964 redux -- Goldwater vs LBJ?
• the election of the "uns"? Unhinged, unstable vs unqualified, untested?
  
• the incredible energy demands of AI; 
• the demand is so high, many say we need to return to nuclear energy
  
• investing
• the NASDAQ -- and a small number of companies -- are reshaping investing
• yes, we're back to the nifty fifty, but this time, the NASDAQ is in the spotlight, not the NYSE
• to compete, the NYSE feels it needs to expand trading to 22 hours / day
• Robinhood
• crypto
• the public perceptions of the Fed's influence on US economy
  
• Covid: had a bigger, lasting effect than folks realize 
• even the most thick-headed now understand the cause of inflation 
• even if they fail to admit it
  
• genetics, also bigger than folks realize
  
• "inflation" will kill the energy transition story, if it already hasn't
  
• the economic divide between the US and the EU continues to widen
• the reason? Energy. The US has check "all the above" when it comes to energy
• retail success: 
• US corporations in the tier below the trillion-dollar market caps: will only survive by reputation for customer service
• this will extend all the way down to mom-and-pop retail stores in all but the smallest communities
  

Is the US dollar weak or strong right now?

Why was the dollar so strong in 1985?

What was the US inflation rate in 1985?

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Mountrail-Williams Electric Cooperative has seen its peak electrical demand more than double in the past 10 years, and MWEC Manager Alex Vournas believes it could double again in the next 10 years. Electricity demands in the oil patch will continue to increase, along with cryptocurrency data mining.
• Biggest risk to ND oil sector: the EPA. Even though there's a growing recognition that fossil fuel-fired generation will be needed to maintain electric reliability, Basin Electric CEO Todd Brickhouse said "regulatory risk," driven by relentless anti-fossil-fuel rules pushed by the Environmental Protection Agency, is the largest risk that Basin is currently mitigating. He said Basin has responded by pairing its all-of-the-above energy strategy with an "all-of-the-above legal strategy" to push back on EPA regulations that will affect existing operations and future construction plans.
• Basin Electric Power Cooperative is researching "nuclear." Licensing a nuclear facility is another challenge, taking 10 to 15 years.
• Minnkota's Milton R Young Station continues to expand; DOE awarded $49 million to support Project Tundra.
• Underground storage of CO2 and property rights over pore space continues to be a top story. "Amalgamation" for CO2 pore spacing is much like "pooling" in the oil sector. Attorney General Drew Wrigley, one of three members on the NDIC said the amalgamation process is only used when a supermajority (67%?) of owners want to participate.
• Measure 4: a ballot measure that would prohibit property taxes based on valuation.
• Measure 3: Legacy Fund, biennium expenditures -- max reduced from 15% (more than $1.5 bilion) to five percent (roughly $550 million).
• Measure 5: legalizes marijuana, a gateway drug.
• Wow, wow, wow: that 4-lane road from Watford City to LongX is now open. A $77 million paving project; a 12-mile project; one can do the math; not long ago, I used $1 million for a mile of pipeline; $1 million for a mile of highway.
  

Top story: 

• full US air arsenal arrives in Mideast: F-15s, F-16s, F-22s
  
• THAADS in place
• Israel strike Iran! Friday night. Sabbath.
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Ukraine: same ol', same ol'.

Top international energy story:

• 
  

Top national non-energy story:

• 10 days until the election -- swing states: PA, NC, GA
• Trump says US is "garbage can of the world." Wow. 
  

Top national energy story:

• WTI moves slightly higher; back up over $71
  

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

The market in a nutshell: At the close -- NASDAQ set another record; Tesla surprises with profit, rest of market languishes -- Boeing machinists strike continue; McDonald's E. coli outbreak; 10-year Treasury rises, spooking investors; --