Saturday, November 25, 2023

Black Friday Online -- All-Time Record -- November 26, 2023

Locator: 46164RETAIL.

Black Friday: I finally had to quit watching CNBC earlier in the week when I got tired of every talking head telling us that the consumer was cash-poor, credit cards were maxed out, and Black Friday would be a disappointment. All figures have not yet come in but online numbers are now being reported.

Link here.

I think I see the word "record" in this headline:

From the linked article:

Early Black Friday sales data is pointing to a healthy start to the holiday shopping season—at least online.
Despite industry expectations for slowing retail sales growth overall this year, Adobe said Black Friday online sales in the U.S. reached a record $9.8 billion on Black Friday, a 7.5% year-over-year increase.
The analytics firm expects consumers to spend another $10 billion to be spent over the weekend and $12 billion on Cyber Monday.
Online sales reached $70.9 billion globally, an 8% increase from Black Friday last year. Black Friday global online sales were $65.3 billion last year.
In the U.S., online sales increased 9% to $16.4 billion globally, according to the Salesforce data. A Salesforce spokesperson said the figures beat what the company was expecting.

It gets tedious. I wonder if Fox will report this.

***************************
Busy, Busy, Busy

Grandsons, age 3.5 years, building a garage for their three-wheeler:

***************
Meanwhile At Flathead Lake

Nephew in from Minnesota for the week. On the patio. 23°F.

Grilling breakfast.

Monster Well Followed -- Update -- Multiple Jumps In Production -- November 26, 2023

Locator: 46163MONSTER.

The well:

  • 20342, 1,430, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1H, t11/11; Charlson; cum 1.168581 million bbls 3/21;25 stages; 3.1 million lbs proppant; went IA 1/14; still inactive as of 6/14; back on line September, 2014; tracked here; off line as of 10/18; update here; also, here; on line as of 12/18; still producing 10,000 bbls/month; off line 5/20; cum 1.195451 million bbls 9/21; cum 1.264 million bbls cumulative; part of production profile; cumm 1.266967 million bbls cum 11/23;
BAKKEN11-20203064216645289212727107091809
BAKKEN10-2020316596645630251341095963600
BAKKEN9-20203093999720442018833142114413
BAKKEN8-2020319986996640781602615680130
BAKKEN7-202031115441182946481808617713157
BAKKEN6-202030111131017940331658715862516
BAKKEN5-202043605832018
BAKKEN4-20202165667256208514043139011
BAKKEN3-20203195519312370823231219041111
BAKKEN2-202029849986433682319521692314827
BAKKEN1-20203195799854439828484028268
BAKKEN12-2019311014610178479827714027498
BAKKEN11-201930100629623481722838022629
BAKKEN10-2019311074311416471015067371011141
BAKKEN9-20192686448320388620130163418323
BAKKEN8-2019311157711301503323712135969900
BAKKEN7-2019311143411359500621022145076299
BAKKEN6-2019301079710920473021030525015571
BAKKEN5-2019291140511302521021183114189563
BAKKEN4-2019301351713749546020857132937356
BAKKEN3-2019311548715662574223353194283709
BAKKEN2-2019281513215103429721178174533530
BAKKEN1-2019311866018742503324830176766939
BAKKEN12-2018159182832930481068490861496
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20181232613644743708758111197
BAKKEN9-20183092779448198516977142652503
BAKKEN8-2018319216904021161796017618126
BAKKEN7-201831972498732209178901759579
BAKKEN6-201830106501110228551646116076176
BAKKEN5-20183111129105732472170021670482
BAKKEN4-201830111911139025491651415353952
BAKKEN3-2018311171011530243316543163270
BAKKEN2-201828111341123024701623115528508
BAKKEN1-2018311272412821290218163179470
BAKKEN12-20173113263129402992176331734374
BAKKEN11-201730131171345431081676982098351
BAKKEN10-2017311443914496328219217019001
BAKKEN9-2017301267412004368216658016477
BAKKEN8-20174501690858618390
BAKKEN7-20173151755311460810878920
BAKKEN6-2017305032503240573026873220
BAKKEN5-20173150544857418896227176029
BAKKEN4-201730533756095278791852260
BAKKEN3-20173157065469480897287560
BAKKEN2-20172853435422447834781520
BAKKEN1-20173166186749572932191050
BAKKEN12-201627495849284057677745641
BAKKEN11-20163059816106513851183020
BAKKEN10-20163161336120552941291960
BAKKEN9-20163061735929557943592260
BAKKEN8-20163168987184617106639790660
BAKKEN7-2016286046583048277987493105
BAKKEN6-201630642465895337351707765
BAKKEN5-20163167966533558819379770
BAKKEN4-20163069467205607903888280
BAKKEN3-20163173017386622821080000
BAKKEN2-2016246513615762677797172415
BAKKEN1-201623570458626889394907899
BAKKEN12-20153179458148794146731437086
BAKKEN11-2015308636843394115703154930
BAKKEN10-2015308957914610541434513804345
BAKKEN9-2015308520821368116447103415896
BAKKEN8-2015318888915379616914618010518
BAKKEN7-201531108631100213332018419081886
BAKKEN6-2015301029510306104415883156730
BAKKEN5-20153111035107078671575215291245
BAKKEN4-20153011438115408871848796808597

Jump In Production -- MRO -- Reunion Bay -- 40x Jump -- November 25, 2023

Locator: 46162MROFISHER.

See this post.

An older well in this area:

  • 18230, 552, MRO, Fisher USA 21-5H, Reunion Bay, t11/09; cum 647K 9/23; production period of interest:
BAKKEN1-20223118795188831175737102355210
BAKKEN12-20213128790288751710245509432280
BAKKEN11-20213038482385632863949590465860
BAKKEN10-20212727469272092604531739295970
BAKKEN9-20213039331397755409747402443080
BAKKEN8-20212038379377589140240602365901676
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-202116823124522479062919
BAKKEN3-20213117491849346164913590
BAKKEN2-2021281684158732817351197270
BAKKEN1-2021311879190635518801340246
BAKKEN12-2020311865184838218711231446
BAKKEN11-202030221321285002155188581

MRO Amandus Wells In Killdeer -- 145-94-17 -- Updated March 5, 2024

Locator: 46161B.

The wells: 39627 - #39634 -- one well is now starting to report production --

  • 39634, drl/A, MRO, Jendrick 21-16H, Killdeer, t11/23; cum 80K 1/24;
  • 39633, drl/A, MRO, Penticoff 21-16TFH, Killdeer, t11/23; cum 51K 1/24;
  • 39632, drl/A, MRO, Sorenson 11-16H, Killdeer, t10/23; cum 90K 1/24;
  • 39631, drl/A, MRO, Cooley 11-16TFH, Killdeer, t10/23; cum 75K 1/24;
  • 39630, drl/A, MRO, Mueller 41-17H, Killdeer, t10/23; cum 141K 1/24;,
  • 39629, drl/A, MRO, Patterson 41-17TFH, Killdeer, t10/23; cum 78K 1/24;
  • 39628, drl/A, MRO, Amandus 31-17H, Killdeer, t9/23; cum 10(k 1/24;
  • 39627, drl/A, MRO, Gilbertson 31-17TFH, Killdeer, t9/23; cum 97K 1/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023885938030339895479530899

These wells are now starting to report. See original post below the fold.

************************************
Original Post

From daily activity report, February 2, 2023.

Eight new permits, #39627 - #39634, inclusive:

  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Killdeer (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for the following wells in NENE 17-145-94: Gilbertson, Amandus, Patterson, Mueller, Cooley, Sorenson, Penticoff, and Jendrick; 
        • to be sited 352 FNL and betwween 759 FEL and 1039 FEL;

The graphics:


 

From The Bat Cave: Season One Episode Four — S1:E4 — November 25, 2023

Locator: 46160BC1:4.

Apple: I wrote and posted this page using an iPad which is pretty cool in itself, but now, I'm editing it using a 2020 M1 13-inch MacBook Air

I bought this laptop, I suppose in 2022, or thereabouts -- don't remember exactly when -- it was only sold by Apple between 2020 and 2022 -- one of the shortest-lived laptops of which I am aware -- before the next huge update was released -- the M2. The M1 represented Apple's switch from Intel to Apple Silicon. Compared to my 2018 Macbook Air this thing is incredible. 

I guess the M1 13-inch MacBook Air is still available, starting at $999 at Apple. But for $100 more one can buy the M2 13-inch MacBook Air. And, starting at $1299, the M2 15-inch MacBook Air. I might be wrong on some of this; hard to keep track.  [You can easily find the M1 13-inch Air for $750 at Best Buy and refurbished ones in the $500 range. I guess I got my $999 version for around $750 when Apple had them on sale for a very short period. Again, I can't remember.]

I'll never buy an Apple MacBook Pro but I could see myself buying a 15-inch Air before I get much older.

To get the M3 chip, one must spend upwards of $1,599 for an M3 MacBook Pro. Way more than I need and this 2020 M1 MacBook Air will last many more years. I very seldom use it. I still use my old Intel MacBook Air. Don't ask why.

Transitory: link here. Great update. Finally, an inflation story that doesn’t begin with the price of eggs.

TILT: Target doesn’t even make the top ten, Link here.

Germany’s budget: a fiasco. Government caught cheating.

Dutch: ditch the climate goals?

CNBC: closed down its climate “desk.” Links everywhere but not at CNBC.

Vontier: rhymes with frontier

Ticker VNT. P/E 15; pays a meager dividend. Might be added to my DTG bucket. Will follow for awhile.

Dead: the video call revolution. It’s a mystery. Doesn’t make sense.

Twitter: one out of five tweets on my twitter feed is an ad or clickbait. Same thing. 

Used to be one out of twenty. I follow 46 twitter-heads but it seems only seven are still active. I seldom post on Twitter any more. Seems like a waste of time. Pet peeve: talking heads call the site, “X, formally known as twitter.” Apparently talking heads can’t pronounce “ex.”

Personal e-mail: after losing access to my Yahoo! e-mail account, I no longer use e-mail socially. 

I do maintain a business-use-only e-mail account on an obscure site, seldom used. I stay in contact with family on a private mobile group messaging app. 
Facebook: when a long-time military buddy started posting his luncheon menu options, I punched out. 

Hulu, Firestick, Amazon Prime: that’s all I need when it comes to streaming. 

We own no  television sets. Nor do either of our two adult children. Our grandchildren are unaware of what a television set even is. 
That’s not quite true. Yesterday, Sophia asked me “if I had television” when I was growing up. In fact, that was a very good question. “Television” didn’t come to my home town until I was about five years old. 
We didn’t have our first television set until I was about eight years old. Between the years I was five and eight, our family watched TV once a week, Sunday nights, with a childless couple across town who raised chinchillas for fur coats. Then: one  network, NBC. Signed off at midnight. 
We watched Captain Kangaroo on CBS when we visited our maternal grandparents in Storm Lake, Iowa, most summers when I was growing up. My paternal grandparents never had a television set as far as I know. For sure, my paternal grandmother never did. They lived on a homestead outside of Newell, South Dakota. Their terrier, Penny, provided all the entertainment those grandparents needed / wanted. The dog terrified my sister and me. I have few memories of those years, but I remember Penny only too well. 
Pony Express was their only link to “the outside” until they bought a used Model A in 1935 or thereabouts. That is amazing when I think about it. My grandfather buying a Model A Ford would be like me buying a Tesla. That would have been a huge jump in the 1930s in the remote west. To buy a car. Wow.

Movies: I’m starting to buy movies for a streaming library. I have two movies, including Asteroid City. I might quit there. Two seems to be plenty.

Music: link here. Too many dots to connect. You are on your own.

Sports: it’s official. Thanksgiving is a two-day holiday, four-day weekend, nine-day school break. Tipping point: Amazon’s Prime Video Thanksgiving Friday NFL game. Why did it take so long?

Speaking of which: the gap between Amazon and “fill-in-the-blank” #2 continues to widen. 

Perhaps Walmart can compete with Amazon in the on-line arena but that’s about it. When Sears died, no one ever expected to see any other retailer able to compete with Walmart. No one  saw Amazon coming. Started out selling only books. Who wuddda thought?

Black Friday: commercialism has jumped the shark. Macy’s Parade was one long Bob Iger production. How long has Al Roker been anchoring this parade? Too long. But the money must be incredibly good. Maybe $350 / hour. Plus expenses. Taxi fare from his home in Westchester County. You know, Snoop Dogg should host the parade. Would triple the viewership.

Re-posting: I think about -- and live and breathe -- only a handful of things, and pretty much in this order:  
  • the love of my life; 
  • the Bakken;
  • music; 
  • reading; 
  • retail investing; 
  • my extended family.
Not on the list above but could be: Apple (AAPL); Nvidia blades (NVDA). Perhaps under “retail investing.”

Cliche: “the love of my life” at the top of that list may seem like a bromide but for me it’s not. It’s the most important”connection” to “life” that I have. 

Lego: unable to think of any better toy company.

Donut eateries: the go-to option for US entrepreneurial immigrants (mostly Asian). Why are these immigrant groups so successful at what they provide America?
  • Asians: donuts
  • Indians: service station convenience stores
  • Indians: Motel 6, late night, swing shift
  • Pakistanis: telemarketers, now 12/7 (vs 24/7)
  • Iranians: antique / curio shops
  • Iranians, Indians, other non-English-speaking incredibly intelligent immigrants: psychiatrists 
  • Mexicans (Hispanics?): landscaping
  • South Koreans: Brazilian jiu-jitsu
  • Czech: long-haul truck drivers
  • former East Germans: seaport Teamsters
  • South Koreans: (Japanese) sushi
  • Nigerians: currency exchange 
  • Ethiopians: Uber drivers
  • Egyptians: non-Uber taxi drivers
Nice-to-know: as my life expectancy shortens, my bucket list lengthens. I’ve most recently added 5-day escapes. Most important? One more trip on Route 66. Just the southwest portion.

Bat cave: it gets better and better. I’m in good company.