Tuesday, July 25, 2023

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- July 25, 2023

Locator: 45193B.

Geo-politics: yesterday I posted this --

Today: 


If "it" does indeed "stall," and the Ukraine turns into another "1917," it will be for all the same reasons. History doesn't repeat but it sure does rhyme.

Body counts: Vietnam. Based on body counts, the US was winning that war also. Until it wasn't.

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Back To Regular Programming

Holding pattern: until tomorrow afternoon.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.24. Can't sustain $79.

Wednesday, July 26, 2023: 86 for the month; 194 for the quarter, 449 for the year
39509 conf, CLR, Vance 4-14H,
39476 conf, Ovintiv, Newman 150-97-21-16-6HR,

Tuesday, July 25, 2023: 84 for the month; 192 for the quarter, 447 for the year
39508 conf, CLR, Vance 3-14H,
38949 conf, Hess, BW-Rolfson-151-98-2116H-16,
37178 conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-7,

RBN Energy: Canadian gas market slowly rebalancing thanks to improved exports, less production. 

In natural gas markets, warmer-than-average winters usually translate into oversupply conditions as heating demand draws less gas out of storage than what would normally be expected. When compounded by rapidly rising domestic production and soft gas exports, the result is even greater oversupply. That is exactly how the Canadian gas market finished the most recent heating season, facing a substantial oversupply of gas that, if it persisted, could result in domestic gas storage reaching capacity well before the start of the next heating season. However, when it comes to natural gas markets, or any other market for that matter, expect the unexpected. Gradually improving demand and export conditions, combined with a significant decline in domestic gas production event in Western Canada, has rapidly shifted the market from substantial to slight oversupply in a matter of months. This has reduced downward pressure on prices and created conditions that might lead to a more manageable storage level before the next heating season gets underway. In today’s RBN blog, we consider what has been generating the rapid shift in Canadian gas market balances this summer.

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Monday, July 24, 2023

WTI Just Cleared $79!! July 24, 2023

Locator: 45192WTI.

Up 2.67%. Up $2.06. Trading at $79.13 just before midnight, CDT.
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Recent Trip -- Euless, TX -- Portland, OR -- Return -- July 24, 2023

Locator: 45191TRIP.

Mileage data for recent trip from Euless, TX (near Dallas) to Portland, OR, and back. 

The mileage and gasoline data are close to exact, but times (third column) could be off a little. 

We drove straight through both going to / returning from, sleeping along the road except for one night, July 16, 2023, when we stayed in a Day's Inn near Twin Falls, UT. That was a particularly exhausting day, having made some wrong turns in Cheyenne, WY, area; almost running out of gasoline; and, changing plans abruptly with regard to ultimate destination.

We had originally planned to drive first to Flathead Lake, Montana, and then drive to Portland, Oregon, from there. But somewhere in the Cheyenne, Wyoming, area, we decided to bypass Montana completely and head straight to Portland.

We were driving a 2023 Nissan Altima rented from Enterprise Rental, and we drove it at speed limit or slightly above. On freeway or major roads, most stretches had posted speed limits of 70, 75, or 80 mph.

We stopped often during the day for various reasons. We took two-hour naps two or three times through the nights. We spent several hours in Arches National Park and Moab, Utah. 

Comment

Date

Time

Mileage

Gallons

Price/Gallon

Total

Miles

MPG

Price/Mile

MPH

Euless, TX

July 15, 2023

1930

12399










2115

12504










2335

12660









July 16, 2023

118

12749

8.69

$3.16

$27.45

350

40.29

$0.08


Cheyenne, WY


1238

13297

13.76

$3.49

$48.02

548

39.83

$0.09


Rock Springs, WY


1643

13609

8.30

$3.45

$28.64

312

37.59

$0.09


Twin Falls, UT (nr)

Lodging - one night

2016







 


Twin Falls, UT (nr)

July 17, 2023

1000

13976

8.75

$3.79

$33.16

367

41.94

$0.09


Dalles, OR


1851

14428

12.63

$4.79

$60.50

452

35.79

$0.13

 

Portland, OR


2000

14503




75




RETURN TRIP











Portland, OR



14503








Hood River, OR

July 20, 2023

1953

14503









July 21, 2023

313

14865

10.36

$3.86

$39.99

362

34.94

$0.11



July 21, 2023

1145

15303

10.85

$3.99

$43.29

438

40.37

$0.10


Farmington, NM

July 21, 2023

2200

15757

10.48

$3.70

$38.77

454

43.32

$0.09



July 22, 2023

911

16224

10.35

$3.15

$32.59

467

45.14

$0.07


Euless, TX

July 22, 2023

1400

16542

8.15

$3.22

$26.23

318

39.03

$0.08













Totals



4143

 

 

$378.63

4143




Averages




102.31

$3.66



39.82

$0.09










40.49

$0.09


****
Chillicothe, Texas

Our favorite road-side stand along the entire trip, about three hours northwest of Dallas.

Wiki entry here.



aa


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WTI: Prices Climbing -- Trending Toward $79 Tonight -- July 24, 2023

Locator: 45190B.

Finally?

Will this continue -- WTI trending higher?

If this continues, we could see another huge day for the Dow tomorrow.

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Investing -- For The Archives

Usual disclaimers. No recommendations.

This one was nice to see. About two years ago I added FCX to my bucket of beaten-down semiconductor / copper / metals bucket. From that bucket I would add to my position(s) twice each month. From the bucket I would choose among ten or so ticker symbols.

That bucket was originally only semiconductor chip companies (about seven) but then I added SCCO and FXP for the copper also needed by the tech industry. SCCO has not been particularly noteworthy, but it is what it is.

This was one bucket, the "chip" bucket. I have three other buckets (big cap / dividend; oil / associated; Big Pharma; and, Daimler Truck). In all, there are about forty stocks from which I choose, but generally only about twenty "make the grade" any more. The total number of stocks will not increase; if I want to add a new stock, which is very, very seldom, something else has to go. 

I would like to get to twenty stocks as the maximum number from which to choose, but right now seven tech companies make up a huge part of that twenty / forty.

AAPL is no longer in the tech bucket; it's been moved to big cap / dividend and because of it's big position in the portfolio, I'm not adding any more, with occasional exceptions.

I used to park money in T (ATT) but will now park money in VZ where it can be held for up to two months but then has to be sold, and cash used to accumulate shares from the various buckets.

Except for that parking of cash in T/VZ, I never, never, never sell any shares of anything once bought, with very rare exception, and a sale has to be for a very, very good reason based on my rolling 30-year horizon. 

Fully invested all the time. By the end of each month I attempt to zero out all cash except that being parked in VZ.

It sounds complicated; it's not. It makes my investing so much more rewarding.

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EV Charging Systems

Important article here. Not publicly traded. Dollar amount is trivial. Huge competition from those with deep pockets: Tesla, Daimler, Volvo.

Note where the company is focused: California, Oregon, and Washington.

Identical to Volvo-Daimler's "big-rig" I-5 corridor initiative.

This will be a fascinating story to see play out.

"New cars" means that cars being registered for the first time in the state. 

"Ten years from now."

It's moving fast.

If there is push back or if the infrastructure can't support it, the state could "tweak" existing law to exteend the mandate on a yearly basis. In addition, the state could "modulate" buying habits by increasing the cost of registering a "new" vehicle that is not an EV. 

This will be absolutely fascinating to watch this play out.



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Posted by at

Is Off-Shore Wind Dead? July 24, 2023

Locator: 45189WIND.

Updates

July 25, 2023: hope springs eternal.


Original Post

All of a sudden this has become a big story. Big article in Barron's this month about the demise of off-shore US wind projects due to inflation.

Off-shore wind:


Link here.

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