Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; WTI Breaks Below $80 -- Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Locator: 44418B.

Avian flu: link here. But let's keep "using" the price of eggs as the reason we need to fight inflation.  Along with the price of used cars. 

[By the way, eggs are now back to their "normal" pricing at our local Target store. A regional grocer in our area still charges almost double, blaming avian flu -- but obviously taking advantage of the situation.]
[I wonder how Costco is managing the avian flu issue?] But I digress.

 
WTI
: $79.19. Again, predicting the price of oil is a fool's errand: link here.


NOG
: press release. 1Q23 hedging results and capital allocation.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $79.19. [Again, predicting the price of oil is a fool's errand.]

Natural gas: $2.289.

Thursday, April 20, 2023: 37 for the month; 37 for the quarter, 292 for the year
38869, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Neal 4-33-28H-144-95,
37475, conf, Petro-Hunt, Watterud 160-95-14B-23-3H,

Wednesday, April 19, 2023: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter, 290 for the year
38868, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Twist 4-4-9H-143-95,
38373, conf, Oasis, Rey Federal 5201 32-11 4B,
37476, conf, Petro-Hunt, Watterud 160-95-14B-23-1HS, 

RBN Energy: will another big-money deal that XOM to #1 in the Permian?

For a major oil and gas producer, organic growth over time is all well and good. But if you want next-level scale — and the economies that come with it — there’s nothing like cannon-balling into the deep end of the pool with a huge, game-changing acquisition. ExxonMobil has already done that twice — first in 2010 with the $41 billion purchase of XTO Energy, then in 2017 when it bought the Bass family’s oil and gas assets for $6.6 billion. Now it’s said to be poised for another big plunge, and to be eyeing the Permian’s largest E&P, Pioneer Natural Resources. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze a potential deal that would make Exxon the dominant producer in the premier U.S. shale play.

A little history about Exxon and the Permian may be helpful here. In the early 2000s, Exxon was focused primarily on overseas operations, but the onset of the Shale Revolution in the late 2000s convinced the company of the potentially strong production growth offered by U.S. unconventional assets. Its options for entering the shale space were building a business organically over a decade or acquiring an established company to jump-start its expansion. An obvious target was XTO Energy, which since its formation in 1986 as Cross Timbers Oil — a name that later morphed into XTO — had built an impressive portfolio of unconventional natural gas assets across several U.S. plays, including the Barnett Shale, the Haynesville and the Marcellus. Seeing the investment as a springboard to shale development across the U.S. and maybe elsewhere, Exxon bought XTO for $41 billion — $30 billion in stock and the assumption of more than $10 billion in debt — its largest deal since the merger with Mobil Inc. in 1999.

Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Diane Feinstein -- Age 89 -- Complications From Shingles -- Hospitalized -- April 18, 2023

Locator: 44417M. 

Indications are, Diane Feinstein is:

  • an anti-vaxxer;
  • did not get the "shingles vaccine."

Link here.

89 years old.

My "bill" for the "shingles vaccine" which I received on January 20, 2023 (a few months ago) after putting it off for decades (the vaccine is a series of two shots; this was my second. Total: about $500 for the series).

  • Pharmacy charge: $286.20.
  • Tricare approved: $189.02.
  • Beneficiary paid: $0.00

I've had four Covid-19 vaccinations.

I got my "seasonal flu" for the first time since I retired from the USAF in 2007. 

Also, the pneumococcal vaccine this past winter.

I'm up to date on all vaccinations except a tetanus which I will get sometime this spring.

Any person over the age of 65 who does not take the "shingles vaccine" (assuming no contraindications and can afford it or has insurance coverage) is a fool.

Note: Medicare does not pay for vaccines. 

On another note, anyone relying on a politician to understand the origin of a disease is also a fool. But that's another story for another day, which will likely never come with regard to this blog.

My Favorite Chart Takes A Huge Jump -- April 18, 2023

Locator: 44416I.

My favorite chart, link here. 

I remember the first time I posted this chart, and told folks it was my favorite chart -- that must have been a year ago -- and some reader said I was nuts. The reader couldn't think of a more boring, mundane economic chart. LOL. The reader may still feel that way.

But wow. What a move. Since January, 2020, the beginning of the plague year, we haven't seen such a move. If you go to the link, you can "hover" over the chart and get specific information. Truly amazing. 

$4 trillion just prior to January, 2020. Now it appears to be about $5.8 trillion. 

$4 trillion --> $5.8 trillion: a 45% jump? Say what?

The chart:

Two things:

  • when the Fed pivots, a lot of folks are going to rush back into equities;
  • a lot of those folks are going to dump their mid- to long-term bonds to get back into the equity market.

That should start happening by the end of this year.

My favorite chart.

************************
Late Night Reading

The Atlantic.

Awesome issue.

"The Myth of the Broke Millennial." Jean M. Twenge. Five pages. Millennials have not been economically unlucky when it comes to home-ownership. If anything, the reverse is true.

"The Ice-Cream Conspiracy: Studies show a mysterious health benefit to ice cream." Scientists don't want to talk about it. David Merritt Johns. Seven pages. The Harvard group didn't like the ice-cream finding: it seemed wrong. One scientist said that the ice-cream effect was "similar" in magnitude to, or "slightly stronger" than, the one for yogurt.

"Is holocaust education making anti-Semitism worse?" Dara Horn. Fifteen pages. Page 35: Southlake, Texas. Absolutely frightening, disgusting. This is a huge, huge issue in the DFW area.

"The Magic Kingdom of Ron DeSantis." The writer's very British romp through America's weirdest state. Helen Lewis. Eleven pages. Although the sunshine state forged DeSantis, he's not a true Florida man. But he is a hater. 

"American Madness." Americans suffering from severe mental illness have been failed by a dysfunctional system. Jonathan Rosen. Nineteen pages.

"How Taylor Swift infiltrated dude rock." Spencer Kornhaber. Two pages.

"The Pornography Paradox." Laura Kipnis. Four pages.

"How to look at a Vermeer." Susan Tallman. Ten pages.

Well, Well, Well -- April 18, 2023

Locator: 44415P.

So much for all that Dominion crap. Good for them.  


From the same thread:

Perhaps the biggest political story this year, so far, and yet, not being reported by Fox News?

***************************
Kristi Noem

If reports are accurate, I've lost all interest in Kristi Noem. Period. Dot. 

If I get to choose between Kristi Noem and the incumbent, I'm voting for the incumbent.

The Oasis Rey Federal Wells In Camp Oil Field -- April 18, 2023

In progress; I will finish this later.

Locator: 44414B.

From earlier today on the blog:  

The Oasis Rey Federal wells are starting to report. These are some very, very nice wells. 

Let's take a look. 

38373, conf, Oasis, Rey Federal 5201 32-11 4B, Camp,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20231659113483
1-20232979731288
12-20224053442913
11-20223697539501
10-20221358914312
  • 38372, A/F, Oasis, Rey Federal 5201 32-11 3B, Camp, t--; cum 142K 2/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20232837956382993712341175350726103
BAKKEN1-2023211949619493228052048019775705
BAKKEN12-2022313464334799362983379733106691
BAKKEN11-20223034460343544244737370357510
BAKKEN10-20223115933153691879117989172780

The maps:


In that same section:

  • 15523, a Madison well; 112, Lindvig 44-11H, Samson Oil and Gas, Camp, Lindvig 44-11H, t5/04; cum 214K 2/23;


  • 19913, 2,825, Oasis, Sparrow Federal 5201 42-11H, Camp, t6/11; cum 389K 2/23;


  • 23377, AB/1,319, Oasis, Hal Federal 5201 41-11T, Camp, t11/12; cum 168K 9/20;
  • 23376, 1,722, Oasis, Amelia Federal 5201 41-11B, Camp, t12/12; cum 317K 2/23;